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We seem to have settled at around 3x revenue. With a seller in the background, share are in plentiful supply. The only things I can see that will move the share price north are:
- Opening of a new facility or facilities to increase capacity
- higher priced contracts with greater profitability
Things that won't change the share price:
- Announcement on spin off for DIM
- Announcement on spin off for Prep
- Announcement on spin off for Imutex
There could be some movement if we see OO holding some of the spin offs, or an announcement of one of the products moving the the next trial phase, but otherwise, I don's see this changing. Com'on Cathal, give us something! DYOR
Haha you think dim announcement wouldn't move the share price, are you crazy
HallsWorthy. Why would it move the price? Do you think Poolbeg moved the price? We know it's coming, so most will have taken a position if they are that keen. The only reason OO would move is if they announce they will retain some part of the company.
It will move the OO price because only shareholders at the time of the offer will be eligible for DiM shares. What part of that don't you grasp?
Plus ORPH could be keeping 20% , which should add value plus hopefully revenue.
Citizen. We've been here before with this conversation. Let's say I currently hold OO shares, I will get my allocation of shares, and don't need to do anything. If I don't hold OO shares, assuming that the date of holding is set for a future date, I have two choices. I either buy OO before the holding date, or I wait for the spinoff and buy the DIM shares on the open market. If I believe in the OO story (which I do BTW), I'm probably a holder already in the company as the price is pretty cheap at the mo, otherwise I just want DIM shares. This is what we saw with Poolbeg. As stated. As they will be separate companies, the only thing that will move the OO price north, is something that will add value to OO only. Either an increase in revenue or profitability (I forgot to mention Covid contracts in my previous note). Spinoffs will not add value to OO unless a holding in the new company is retained.
mike - didn't CF say in a recent presentation that ORPH likely to retain 20% of DiM?
that could be worth a lot to ORPH, and quickly, if DiM spin-out goes as well as many of us expect
and no one ever buys shares to secure a dividend?
He did say that, and that there were other lessons learned too. I really hope we retain some of DIM as it could be a good source of new revenue for OO. I'm not sure if it is a good thing or a bad thing to set a closing price date for an RNS after 4:30pm for the free shares. What is the feeling of the board?
He said it in elricos interview that it was a possibility and of course the sp would move on news of a dividend as people would have to hold orph to qualify. Let's hope it doesnt go like the last time when people bought solely for their allocation then sold the following days after
In a recent webcast CF commented they were working to find a mechanism which would prevent or limit the benefits of immediately selling after the exD date. Hats off if he succeeds but I can't think of a previous example.
Citizenlane,
"and no one ever buys shares to secure a dividend?"
Income investors buy shares doe the dividend all the time. Of course, ORPH dividends are in-specie, but they have potentially more value than a traditional income dividend. The confusion here seems to be the thinking by some people the non-core spinouts are dilutive to ORPH. Even Finncap don't appear to agree with this if we use their sum-of-parts evaluation.
It is investor sentiment that has created the illusion of dilution. I accept this is not your point, I am merely making an observation and sharing my opinion, which some people will not agree with. However, I will point to the fact POLB IPO has already demonstrated the sum-of-parts valuation has proven part of my case.
um, I was obv being ironic elrico
"the record date can only be put into the future"
No it can't.
The whole premise of the spin-out was based on another company doing a similar thing. Can't be bothered to look and see which one it ws ATM. But CF mentioned it time and time again in most interviews at the time. It was that company that announced a cut off date that was before the actual announcement of their spin-out. I think people saw our spin-out going the same way and maybe, I guess, bought more/stayed in, etc to capitalise. It was only when it was telegraphed to be happening in the future that he gave people to chance to sell out or buy in/back in, later. That was the lesson that I hoped he had learnt from the POLB spin out and next time do it the way it kept saying the other company had. As it stands nobody knows what is going to happen so may be selling to retain profit, having a dabble elsewhere, holding back on loading up.........
If he wants stability then come out and say that the ex date will be at a time before the RNS and that way it benefits only those that hold at that time. And if nobody knows when that day will actually come you can be sure that they would be buying in and holding right now. From what I have read here since POLB it would seem that the consensous of this board to be in favour of the back dated cut off. Nothing would serve LTH's better IMO.
Just do it CF.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBSxAAJ_2SI
Totally agree Si. The last spin off newbies were handed 2 gifts as they were also offered the POLB ipo. Some LTH here are fully loaded here so didnt have funds to get any extra.
I Disagree Earache in theory I don't necessarily think the spinoffs are the cause of the share collapse.
Its about TRUST in the leader and the market is speaking with its feet.CF was SO unprofessional in the latest Poolbeg investor Podcast.He still hasn't learned.
I see another Institution sold it 4.5 million shares in the summer.Calculus VCT.
Maybe they sold in the Spring.
On the other hand..and Musk is a bit of a twat as well.
If you invested $10,000 with founder Elon Musk 10 years ago, your stake would be worth $1.8 million now. That works out to a more than 68% average annual return
He didn't just mention it Ryan it was almost a mantra and the company was given as an example in pretty much every presentation.
Okay, so I've done the leg work for you. I didn't know the exact details and wasn't sure if I was wrong.
And I'm never wrong. I thought I was once, but it turned out I was just mistaken.
Anyhoo, the company was EKF and the spinout was Renalytix AI.
Here is one example where it was mentioned
The Investor Meet Company Presentation, 2nd Jun 2021 from 15.50 mins
I tried using my link but it had my details on, but I'm sure you can find it.
And here is the part in the RNS from EKF, "The Restricted Offer is only available to Qualifying EKF shareholders, being persons who were recorded in the register of members of EKF at 8 p.m. on 10 October 2018 (the "Record Date") "
And the date of that RNS was........ drum roll please.........the 11th of October.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EKF/launch-of-restricted-offer-by-renalytix-ai-plc-delteki5g71zbqc.html
And you're most welcome, BTW. ;)
Mr ache, what do you do for a living.
Okey dokey, Ryan.That would be interesting to find out. But at the time they were proposing to IPO Renal AI as a spin out from the parent company. Don't know tbqh, but Cf kept using them as an example as a way to do a spin-out and people at the time mentioned the timings of the RNS and ex-date. So it became a thing, I guess, Still think it's a good idea.
Toddler, I can't tell youwhat he does. But what I can tell you is he has a very particular set of skills, skills he has acquired over a very long career. Skills that make him a nightmare for people like you. :)
Maybe Elrico could put it to him as a suggestion, being as they are besties.
Just messin' Elrico. ;)
In what way does a past ex dividend date reward LTHs Ryanwood? It makes no difference either way to my holding of both shares so where's the reward?
An odd way of looking at things. As I say it makes no material difference to me either way and it doesn't bother me what other people get or don't get.