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Investor Concerns and Market Realities
Despite the promising outlook, some investors remain cautious. Historical precedents of unmet expectations have left a residue of scepticism. A recurring question among investors pertains to the prolonged stockouts and limited availability of products like "H&B SlimExpert Golden Syrup Porridge." Comparisons with Kellogg's equivalent sachets reveal significant differences in nutritional content, particularly in sugar and fibre levels. This has led to frustrations among consumers and investors alike, who question why OptiBiotix has not been more successful in persuading major players like Kellogg's to incorporate SlimBiome® into their products.
For example, The nutritional comparison is stark: Kellogg’s sachets contain 15g of sugar and 2.6g of fibre, whereas H&B’s product has only 3.2g of sugar and 4.5g of fibre. Despite this, Kellogg's Oat So Simple range was the third most popular cereal in the UK in 2022, with over 5 million consumers. This raises questions about OptiBiotix's commercial strategy and market engagement. This should excite investors for the future of both SlimBiome® and SweetBiotix®, as they fit exceptionally well with any cereal brand on the breakfast table today.
View on the above.
Plus, much more.
Example
Total Estimated Full Year 2024 Revenue:
India (Morepen): £1.70 million
USA (Sports Nutrition): £0.57 million
E-commerce: £0.62 million
Asia: £0.125 - £0.15 million
Total: Approximately £3.015 - £3.04 million
https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/
Elric /Alex thanks for making this available for free via SOH sponsorship. Just a small point, would Y1 perhaps not align with FY 24 due to in year launch timing? But if the f/c revenues materialise, and these don't include anything from SweetBiotix, then things would finally be looking up. Steeply up!!
Revenue excluding sweetbiotix and microbiome modulators won't be anywhere close to the £3m. Likely you say 1 full year with Morepen won't synchronise with the OptiBiotix full year.
Based on one of the forecast slides, I'm expecting close to 1.5m.
I think sweet biotix will happen, which will make this have a nice run up to £1.00
Hi Martin,
Alex set out a summation for SweetBiotix without venturing into timelines because history has damaged this to some degree, thus focussed on known, knowns. I think Alex has tried to keep close to the IMC presentation format and used summaries rather than lob the whole lot together as I used to do, which wasn't ideal thinking back.
By the products via the links provided or we lose the sponsorship. Buy, buy, buy. :)
BK,
I understand that the figures for SOH used are from the OPTI accounting period. Otherwise, it makes no sense.
If that is the case, then why does the slide 43 show forecast revenue on the chart for 2024 totalling approx 1.5m excluding license fees?
India is shown as 400k and not 1.7m?
Always best to go by the official company figures.
The questions that remain unanswered despite Alex's best attempts (Investor Meets Q&A has been updated but only the generic questions invented by SOH survived the cut.
Make your own minds up but I suspect the answers are the Hull Study with Wellbiome has gone nowhere and the US Partners mentioned in the RNS have walked away from Wellbiome.. Also the SOH response to Alex that Kellogg's are not interested in healthy cereals may have been true before the recent focus on fibre and sugar and obesity rates that led to Kellogg's losing a high court judgement regarding how their cereals can be promoted, so is worth revisiting i would have thought.
https://www.actiononsalt.org.uk/news/news/2022-/2022-news-section/high-court-rules-against-kelloggs--public-health-win.html
Q2 When can we expect to hear the outcome from the Wellbiome Project that commenced Q3 2023 under Dr james Hobkirk at Hull who was testing the effects of Wellbiome on cardiac surgical outcomes following a pre-operative 6 week nutritional intervention?
Q3 The final 2022 results RNS stated that “We are in discussions with two US partners who are interested in purchasing WellBiome® with a potential US launch planned for Q4 2023. The new projects would incorporate WellBiome in a final product for healthy aging and hydration” so does the decision to rebrand Wellbiome announced in the H1 2023 results RNS following “A competitor analysis for Wellbiome® that indicated value in a change in positioning from healthy ageing to gut and digestive health to allow us to attract more customers. “ mean these deals are now dead in the water?
Slide 43 wasn’t very informative. The investor meet the year before was better fur breaking down revenues and from which source. I can only think distributor income wasn’t fully captured, there’s no way income will be that low.
The 2023 revenue risk is that the distributors don’t replenish and are still running down their stock, but I would think 2024 e million revenues looks very conservative.
The circa £640k revenue will have included distributor income but we were told excluded license fees (£80K for sweetbiotix annual pre launch royalty) and other which I suspect is the admin costs shared by PBX Health for sales of cholbiome through the online store. Consequently, I expect total 2023 revenue to be no more than £800K but hope I am wrong and get pleasantly surprised
I don't think it includes the recharge as revenue for 2022 didn't
albeit this note isn't that clear - note 13
During the period 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2022 Optibiotix Health PLC loaned Probiotix Limited £150,000, to finance working capital costs in the period up to the listing of Probiotix Health Group plc. During the year £203,835 was repaid. The balance due to Probiotix Limited at 31 December 2022 of £10,137 (2021 owing: £53,835) was repaid post year end. There was no interest charged during the year.
During the year Optibiotix Health PLC loaned Optibiotix Limited £1,220,000 to finance working capital costs. Optibiotix Limited recharged Optibiotix Health PLC £373,426 for salary costs. The balance at the year end of £846,574 (2021, £931,903) was cancelled.
There was no interest charged during the year. This does not impact on the consolidated Group accounts.
During the year Optibiotix Limited recharged Probiotix Health Plc £23,139 for directors’ fees. Optibiotix Limited received a recharge from Probiotix Health Plc for admin costs of £148. The balance at the year end of £22,991 was received after the year end. There was no interest charged during the year.
During the year Optibiotix Limited transactions with Probiotix Limited were as follows:
• £440,663 for salaries and administration costs;
• £60,676 income received on behalf of Probiotix limited; and
• £544,177 repayments received.
There was no interest charged during the year. The remaining balance of £30,146 was received after the year end.
hopefully 2023 will be clearer with g myers on board - though no doubt he had input into slides - and there has been some confusion over those - my belief in him has taken a slight hit albeit only slight until 2023 accounts release
for further info see notes 4 and 18 in undernoted
https://probiotixhealth-ir.com/docs/probiotixhealthlibraries/archive/reports/ar2022.pdf
mol
New opti?
lol
more or less same as old /existing opti imo
mol
Clean label product demand gaining momentum; sweetener paragraph makes sweetbiotix a perfect fit.
https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2024/04/25/clean-label-dairy-and-consumer-attitudes
Aquae. Thanks for sharing. We did have a tie up with a Uruguaian company for dairy. Can't remember for which product. Was it LPldl? And of course, if SweetBiotix gains traction, we are hopefully on a big price winner. (Appropriate emoji)
Twas this one
https://www.colonial.com.uy/productos/categoria/yogur/con-probi%C3%B3ticos
and still on home page
https://www.colonial.com.uy/
mol
mol
mol