Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The finncap report may be out of date or produced by an unreliable broker with an agenda but it definitely suggests we will need c£3m of funding next financial year. This is because we will be spending £3m on R&D and £3.5m in capex in this financial year and next. Most of this will be probably be on the new Illumina test and contributing to existing customers’ platform migration, but also on the development of other new products. I agree that the revenue projections seem light (how can the forecasts for India be only £0.75m in 2021?) but you have to factor in there will probably be low growth in UK/EU as customers wait for the new Illumina solution. I think additional funding next year sounds credible so we urgently need confirmation of that. I note it says in the report that we plan to discuss the TF funding structure post-settlement. Hopefully that means they will look to convert their warrants and not that they will seek repayment! I presume there is an agreement that they don’t need to be repaid until at least after 2021. I am thinking of going to the AGM on Thursday so we should all try and put together a list of questions for anybody who definitely decides to go. Apart from those issues mentioned above I would like to know why we need a Chief Business Officer and a Commercial Director. I will think of a few more in the coming days.
I note the first loan of £5m from TF is not due for repayment until between December 2022 and December 2023 and the rest not until December 2023.
Hopefully there is material news before the AGM.
When the suggestion was raised at the Investor presentation that their would be a debt for equity
swap and warrants would be exercised is what would be the exercisable price?
My understanding in aggregate Thermo Fisher now hold warrants over 95,688,706 ordinary shares, representing circa 20% of the company on a fully diluted basis. These warrants are exercisable at different levels. My understanding of the TMO Warrants is that the following have been issued.
Date: No of shares @ Executable Price
Dec-15: 20,325,204 @ 24.6
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77
For these my understanding is that TMO paid the following:
- Jul 2017: £2:4m
- Jul 2017: £5:0m
- Mar 2017: £2.0m
- Sep 2016: £4.0m
- Dec 2015: £5.0m
In total £18.4m but I could be wrong. These warrants are only exercisable for 8 years and so I wonder how many of these warrants would be exercisable and at what price. It is a bit above my head whether TMO can exercise warrants in a piece meal fashion or have to do it one go.
The other question that this does pose is whether if all warrants were to be exercised and given that the Directors hold circa 30% of the shares whether this combined TMO + BoD holding would represent over 50% of the shares in circulation and whether they would then have to make a formal offer under Article 9 for a TO.
I don't think people would wait for the new Illumina CE-IVD solution as ultimately one cannot await one's pregnancy. Mother's will ask for the best test and go to the private clinic supplying that or the test which is supplied via their private insurance or NHS. What I would expect is that labs would not invest in TMO sequencers knowing this would be phased out. So this model would work on a lease basis. However for Premaitha what they would push more for in Europe is
I really don't agree with the stated growth projections so I still hope that numbers directly from the business can be issued via Hardman etc as this is now just causing havoc. Even if the much debated additional funding is required which the Chairman is saying is not and very publicly the sp seems too depressed.
Regardless however I share many frustrations of the BB that the BoD and Management team need to be heavily trimmed and to restore shareholder value in the immediate term. Appointing a Group Commercial Director (Hayden Jeffreys) - and giving him 10m share options @ 10p - to support Chief Commercial Officer (Nick Claxton) and Chief Business Officer ( Peter Collins) and then being told via Finncap that growth for the two years 2020 - 2021 will slow to 12.5% per year from 45%+ per year is taking the piss frankly
Hoping for a better next week and closing the door on this last month.
Sorry typo:
Meant to say "However for Premaitha what they would push more for in Europe is to have these test samples shipped to the lab in Manchester or their European diagnostic partners central laboratory and have the test performed there in the interim" I would have to check with Hardman but this has a different fee structure then localised testing which from memory is slightly more profitable per test but could be wrong.
Perhaps you could get comment regarding TW's statement that at the 16th get together AR was quoted as saying further funding would not be required? How? Bearing in mind clear indications from recent Results and common sense requirement on overall situation, finances and revenue projections?
My word I didn’t realize there were three people doing the same job, that really is taking the ****! The Board certainly needs to be held accountable at the AGM. And this whole leaking information to that idiot Tom Winnifrith has to stop as well.
Yes, it should STOP, but just beforehand, please ask if it was said and if its true. If so, how?
My challenge to IR was also that with a Group Commercial Director (Hayden Jeffreys), Chief Commercial Officer (Nick Claxton) and Chief Business Officer ( Peter Collins) that the proposed revenue projections from Finncap are very pessimistic. If true then you don't need the BoD of that size. However I am still very sceptical of Finncap's report if you consider the new oncology product, proposed new NIPT products via Abnova, new markets (India/China) and new strategic opportunities via Illumina. But with 3 heavy hitters coming from big name pharma you should expect more.
In terms of AR's public comments well I hardly think TW would have stated it if it was not said, and AR said it in panic. If TW had misquoted AR you would have already heard about it already in his own discussion forums which are monitored.
I also think the emotive way this question was put just reflects how hysterical PIs have become over potentially circa £3m additional funding, if required, due to the handling of IR over the last month following the release of Finals and notification of placing. With conflicting reports, apparent backroom deals by Finncap with questionable projections etc. its been a horrid month which has wrecked havoc with the sp. Hopefully 'confirmed' revenue projections can be supplied to put things in perspective. However even with Finncap confirming cash in bank post current placing will be £1.7m next March and a target price of 16p our current sp still seems overtly negative even if additional funding is required. I think Florida said the additional funding comment was just in the Going Concern statement so let's see what next week brings with AR's clarification.
Hopefully other news beforehand