Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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this outfit has struggled in a bull market and spnked £20 million quid in the process
so sure as hell will find it tough if this is more than just a market correction and we're heading into start of a bear market
I still believe the IIlumina litigation has provided perfect cover excuse for poor performance and allowed them to keep the gravy train rolling
We shall see
no more excuses and nowhere to hide from now on in
I can’t make the AGM today because flights from the Channel Islands to Manchester are over £320 (another story) but I hope the Board get an absolute roasting today because the share price is a shambles and says everything about them and the performance of the Company. Sub-9p now, utter disgrace.
Sorry for typo as on commute. Meant to say the fact that Steve Myers and Adam Reynolds are still buying this week (with AR adding 500K to his subscription placing) should be a sign of confidence that the TMO deal to exercise warrants and debt relief is credible and will raise the sp floor. The comment in AGM "With the fundraising now completed" once both the TMO warrants deal and promised trading statement is announced should become clearer. As discussed already the need for future funding, if required, is only expected to be next year and minor. However this statement I agree does suggest that this may not be required if the trading statement and TMO deal works out. I think some posters from the BB are attending the AGM so I expect they will be supplying some further direct feedback in the afternoon.
On the positive note today is the end of the placing period so hopefully the volume will pick up in advance of the above newsflow.
I think that part of the AGM statement will become more clearer with the release of the updated trading statement and updated Finncap target price.
For those of us who were led to be believe privately that further announcements were due by the AGM the RNS may seem tame however I take perspective from what Florida suggested which is that still within the placing period the BoD may not want to release anymore signifcant news. That obvious negativity aside from the promised trading statement the fact that Steve Myers and Adam Reynolds should be a sign of confidence that the TMO deal to exercise warrants and debt relief is credible and will raise the sp floor.
short AGM then about 30 secs!
I also wondered what the point of this was other than maybe near the end "With the fundraising now completed"
Nice to see Myers increasing. Otherwise what was the point of that pre agm statement. Lol Even less than I expected with nothing new and no figures. Same old let down when something more was expected.
I'm sure we will have good news. It's agm day! Real question will be if good news amounts to anything material and worthy of a sustained sp increase. Can the bod deliver some news that impresses shareholders AND the market? Frankly I doubt it for tomorrow at least, but live in hope. I expect good news that gets applauded and then the market opens with the normal weak reaction or short term spike and retrace or a simple drop. Hope to be spectacularly wrong, though that's the usual form.
I do hope we have some good news tomorrow
Share price showing lots of anticipation for tomorrow's agm trading update rns - NOT!!
There was a comment I read in another BB which suggested that AR being lauded for undertaking the placing at 10p was akin to a parent of an 'F' student being congratulated that their child got a 'D'. I thought it a bit harsh, very more so after AR bought another 500k @ 10p, but could understand their frustration given that the sp fell to an intra-day low of 7.5p at one point from a PRE-settlement high of 14.5p and that after nearly 4 years of litigation some better planning and communication could have been expected. But maybe he was just hoping for something more tidy.
We make and keep our investments on the future sp though not on frustrations of the past. With AR's further purchase @ 10p hopefully post placing period the sp should rise to the floor. I suspect that the trading announcment mentioned in video should prompt a revised reserach note and target price by Finncap shortly and that with the probable warrants exercise via TMO we should be at a much better place by Half Year results, with a higher floor.
Thank you for your clarification and thoughts. All the best.
reins
I see your point regarding the possible back room deal, however, I think your looking too closely at a situation constructed by the incompetence of Fincapp. Whatever deal was done, was done to get them out of a pickle. In the presentation video, AR went to great lengths not to smear Fincapp with any wrong doing, then later in the heat of discussion blamed all brokers for achieving any price for the sake of getting a deal. Which does indirectly point the finger at Fincapp. The two tranches may have been set up by Fincapp before AR took the raines. Leaving AR no time to change what had already taken place.
It is very tidy to roll everything up in one tidy bundle but tidy does not push the price up. We want each event to happen with maximum potential impact. The debt deal could spur at least a 1p - 2p price improvement when announced and this should be the stepping stone towards additional announcements for newly established contracts. I think as the momentum builds we could be looking at 2 or 3 contract announcements a month, and the effect of these contracts will be significantly beneficial to the price now the settlement is out of the way.
Fair point. But then I am back to being confused again as to why the placing was undertaken in two tranches with the subscription of the BoD vesting in the 2nd tranche. That suggests something happening in background otherwise it has been a god awful month which could have been spared by just doing it all in one go and moving swiftly on. Key thing for me if they do pull off the deal is the exercisable floor, hopefully the BoD pull off a blinder.
Definitely not within the placing Flipper. This would be an incredible coup to clinch such a deal and any price gains would be restricted within the placing. Much better in about 2 to 3 weeks.
For me the debt relief and exercising of warrants deal with TMO would make more sense to complete (even in part) during the placing period as then there are restrictions on trading for those within the company. Also to coincide with the company relaunch and brand name change
The key thing for me would be the exercisable price. If TMO agree to a partial warrant conversion I think it would cover the following warrants:
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77
Exercising these warrants should give them 74,946,134 shares and if there was no debt relief agreed this should then be exercised at the above prices creating a floor at circa 12p for newsflow on reproductive health products and new contracts, NHS etc. to build upon. The Chairman buying again 500k shares at 10p suggests that the exercisable price would be above this and that hypothesis correct.
I still suspect all 95m warrants to be exercised to give TMO a 20% stake in the company but the key thing here would be the exercisable price as the 20m warrants (for £5m loan) have an exercisable price of 24.6p. So key thing would be what this would (and if it would) be negotiated to.
A nice bit of blue today - a few more days like this will ease the recent pain!
I'm blaming it on auto correct.
A few important points to consider.
Dept deal with TF could be signed and sealed any time before xmas. The new CEO in talks in the US sorting this out now.
Fincap is to produce an updated/revised assessment of the company shortly after the AGM, possibly Mid November.
Reassuring to see they are "cautiously" entering the US.
Good point raised from a shareholder 40:40 on the presentation video highlighted the expected growth over the next year. AR said "revenue will increase quite rapidly".
Additional placing is not definite. If it is required, it's already covered, according to our so called crooked spiv. It seems he has already lined up two major institutional investors who have shown interest over the last two weeks. I would assume that the placing whether or not would be determined by the extent/pace of the growth balanced with higher Research and Development costs over the next 6 to 12 months.
Higher Research and Development costs due to integration with Illumina technology as part of the settlement.
Barry Hextall confirmed the potential clawback of missed clients originally deterred by litigation, particularly in Germany that would additionaly contribute to the overall acceleration of growth.
Additional 500,000 shares bought by the Chairman can't be a bad thing.
The thing which us PIs sometimes fail to recognise is via YourGene, Premaitha has actually been a approved laboratory partner and reseller of Illumina NGS for the last 2 years outside Europe. So in the video the Yourgene Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) laboratory mentioned not only provides sequencing on Ion Proton System, The Ion Torrent PGM System and Ion S5 but also whole genome sequencing using the Illumina HiSeq2500.
Well, if they already have a sequencer, they buy the appropriate test ... if not, they can choose the sequencer that fits their price / throughout / other activities and buy our test whichever sequencer they choose!
And some people are overly positive! It's good to have a balance.
I'm not talking about Illumina's own CE-IVD test or the technical issues surrounding the use of Illumina and TF instruments or TF's approval of the settlement.
I'm talking about what happens when we get a client outside the PPA territories when we have an Illumina test and a TF test? Do we sell them the Illumina or the TF test? We say we are platform-agnostic so the corollary of that must be we don't sell them either test, we let the client decide, which must surely upset TF if the client picks Illumina because we haven't sold them the TF test? On top of the fact they have only 20% of the sequencer market this deal with Illumina may make it harder to change that through Premaitha.
I'm saying I would like more clarity on the TF relationship going forwards and I'm sure this will come out of the meetings over the past week in the US. TF have such a huge influence over us operationally and financially that I would like more certainty over our future relationship with them.
Good to see AR dipping into his pocket adding to the subscription. They.ll be cancelling their options next ... sorry couldnt resist.
There was 300,000 additional shares on top of the 500,000 subscribed to by AR. So I think it must have been an II who purchased this delta 300k.
So I believe that the Placing originally saw 20,166,420 Subscription Shares which has now increased to an aggregate of 20,966,420 ordinary shares, following an increase of 800,000 Subscription Shares. This in the process has increased the cash injection by £2,096,642.
Key thing for me is they paid 10p.