Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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Interesting video presentation. Looking forward to this week
begs the question, why did they not choose Illumina from the start? Two major feck ups by Mr Little, 1) chose the wrong partner 2) then tried to take them on in court..What a disaster this bloke has been as a ceo. Just glad they fecked him back into the labs..Just my opinion of course
was Mr Little on a backhander from Thermo? Just think where we could be now going with Illumina from the start.He must have known the likelihood of litigation from Illumina but still went with Thermo, why??
all said, it does feel to me that things are just beginning to get interesting.Things like doing a deal with Thermo over loans/warrants and two more significant II's wanting to get onboard, hmmm!
https://youtu.be/fZn-a9jfMoI
For me the salient points of the video was that if the debt/equity deal was agreed to with TMO, plus the revenue picks up (better than Finncap expects) and cost management improves then any further funding would be MINOR, if required, and would come in the NEXT financial year, and be via II's being issued equity directly. All in all that's the most realistic I think that could be expected that the BoD could publicly commit to but hopefully also draws a line under some PIs concerns and we can finally move on.
If TMO do agree to a partial warrant conversion I am not sure what the exercisable price would be but think it would cover the following warrants:
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77
If they only exercised these warrants this would give them 74,946,134 shares
I am presuming that TMO would not be wanting to exercise its warrants from Dec-15: 20,325,204 @ 24.6p. That all said I am not sure if TMO is able to exercise its warrants in a piece meal fashion or obligated to do it all in one go. This would then take us to back to 12p in short order.
Although the video suggested that a 3 year plan was to be targeted for release around the Half Year results (3rd Dec) it seems unlikely that this has not been prepared to be shared with TMO at a high-level as part of the debt for equity exchange. Whether this deal is brokered before the AGM who knows but the video did state that they hope to provide a trading update at the AGM after which Finncap would be expected to provide a revised research note and target price. In the last 2 years as Premaitha has already gone from Panmure Gordon to Finncap there seems no appetite to change broker as considered all as bad as eachother. Also with the 1st paragraph strategy the need going forward - and certainly for the foreseeable future - is reduced.
With the CEO (and assuming the new Group Commercial Director) in the US to broker the debt to equity conversion the hope is that this is announced by the AGM but who knows. I hope it is so that it can be reflected in time in Half Year results.
That all said I cannot understand why TMO would agree to a debt right-off rather than just make an offer at a depressed sp level. Partly because writing the debt off would not prevent a 3rd party stealing Premaitha from under them and leaving them short changed. So it would be better to exercise all warrants (including the ones at 24p) and then have a stronger blocking vote against a 3rd party offer.
The BoD's presentation seemed like they were looking ahead to grow the business with new product launches and I guess to also clear their name. With a presentation titled "Hand-cuffs off" this does not really chime with Finncap's assessment that the litigation resolution will only add 7% revenue growth in 2020E to £11.9 or a 4% revenue decline to £8.5m in 2019E. However let's see what happens during the course