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Dandee, well I won't be happy with 8-9p. If you take all into account with the $8m + $6m x15 is nearer 16-18p .
Het Tap, being bit harsh tonight !
yes, and with profits of say $12-$14m it should be a darn sight more than 11p methinks!
Just checked the recent finncap note which states FY 2019 target of 18.5 and $6.2 MM adjusted ebitda .
That would be quite acceptable with $4MM for H2...
I hope those are the “ guidance “ numbers being referred to . 6.2 for the year should suitably underpin a closer to 10 p share price , so hopefully we will get continued trading updates to confirm we are set for at least those numbers . And as I think it was bakky who pointed out , circa $6MM of savings for an industry player to strip out ... pro forma post sale profits of $12-$14MM , would , I’m sure be very attractive to the likes of Donuts , Afilias , Neustar et al.
don't forget a bigger player can also strip out $6m so $120m is cheap imo!
Agenda is clear and stated many times here :
Make $8MM base ebitda ++ extras like adultblock and .luxe progress = $120MM ++ valuation = 11p a share ++. Simple math .
what are these ''expectations '' anyway? Can someone tell me some figures..Why does TH clam up and skip and swerve whenever it is mentioned?
SJ. what's to stop MMX raking in similar revenue to what you did nearly ten years ago with your version of adultblock?
having said that, I agree with SJ, the 28 MMX stable should be doing much much better than they are .
H1 figures for MMX are always fairly ****e anyway aren't they?
Dandee, it does not matter a jot at this point. We can only tell further down the line or when it's sold and for what figure. I think adultblock will contribute in a biggish way and I expect .Luxe to wake up bit in the next 6/12 months
Dandee ,
Strip out $2.8MM revenue and $2MM ebitda from the h1 results and you will see what the “ sans” icm , Numbers would look like and you probably have to answer .
Nope , I haven’t spoken to executive management in awhile . When I do I will be more interested in learning about how much the 28 are or are not making rather than what my 12% or whatever share of a few million dividend is going to be . $4MM nett contribution from the 28 ( vs zero) per annum on a conservative 15x PE makes $60MM difference in valuation over and above the $4MM a year they are making from ICM and 12% of that is a number I a more interested in ... ICM vendors went into this deal and basically took 1/3 value of the combined overall value ( cash and shares ) expecting that we would probably make 50% contribution to the overall profits of the group . I wonder what % at the end of 2019 ICM ( with prob $4mm) will contribute to the full years ? Nothing would make me more happy for that to be 50% or less : will be less than happy if is 80-100% .
''A public restatement of those guidelines would be useful'' yes, a very good idea cos TH does ALWAYS skip around it.Well he skips around everything that might need him to put his **** on the block regards any sort of forecast or future figures. As he says ''he doesn't like to lead with his chin''
or has SJ already been told there will be no divi and that's why he's got his arse in his hand! lol.
Mischief making ?
I am earnestly serious .
And as for implying what management are saying for next years ebitda ? https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/903542/minds--machines-group--now-generating-real-cash--as-business-momentum-continues-903542.html
Just at 2.00 minutes in .
I reiterate that I have yet to see in H2 2018 or H1 2019 that the company is making a bean over and above what I know ICM will be contributing to the bottom line during those periods . A successful adult block will no doubt boost H2 figures which are usually higher numbers anyways as a result of original launch dates . You may also have noted from the interview that Toby did not confirm what the 2019 expected numbers actually were , just that he expected the company to be “ in line “ with them .
A public restatement of those guidelines would be useful as I have no more information to go on than you , just the public info and my knowledge of Icm and the domain business as a whole .
Don’t get me wrong , I am delighted that the company had integrated ICM well and is reducing its over reliance on one off China premium deals that may never pay , very commendable but now all the prior ugliness has been written off is time for the rubber to hit the road with tangible and demonstrable ebitda and net cash contribution from the “ original 28”.
TH says they are currently speaking to major s/h about their opinions on the best way to return the lolley. I assume they have spoken to SJ or will be very soon so he can put his preference to them then.
$4m from the ICM side and nowt from the others, surely that can't be right for 2020? That would be a total disaster!
Tap,
Lol , not so much as you say but I am an always have been VERY interested to know / see exactly , without spin or one offs etx etx , the “ other ( non ICM ) side if the business is producing : I have banged that drum since day one as I KNOW for a fact that ICMs contribution will be a free and clear $4MM of FY ebitda and all cash at that . If management are now saying that they only see $4MM in total for FY 2020 it means that even with all improvements and provisions the 28 tlds are producing nothing at the clear cash ebitda level , which , almost 2 years on will be unacceptable . H2 2019 “ run rate “ should point to a FY 2020 of $8MM +++. Ebitda . , half provided by the 4 iCM names .
I think that we have been talking at cross purposes looking at again at the statement. Your steer is from an accounting point of view ,in which you are correct to say that the 1.8m was included within the provision made last year.My focus and clearly THs meaning relates to the Group cash flow which stood at $2.2m post the $1.8m payment made in H1,hence the $4m in cash terms profit.I get that you are looking at a pure accounting number which is fine but different of course.
I can’t say that I’m with you on the interview analysis,I think he is merely trying to indicate the underlying performance ,which gives a truer picture of where we are to the market than the accounting mechanisms surrounding the provisions.Sorry that I probably haven’t made your weekend this time round.ATB
You and me both ! Today is last day of a six month home renovation here , enough to drive anyone crazy ! Yes I heard what Toby said in interview but there is a deft change within the sentence from the $2.2 “ profit “ number and then the $1.8 is referred to as cash , so to me was a verbal “ swerve “ as is then the reference to $4MM being easily attainable “ next year “ , again , deft but I I think you will find he was Maybe cleverly switching to full year numbers in that statement not H1 2020 . I may be a cynic sometimes but if you re- watch it there are some very careful choices of phrases and words in mix n match kind of way and in this era of ebitda / cash generation / opex/ Billings etc is often hard to keep your eye on the correct ball :-)
Hi SjL.I need a bit of time to actually go through the statement again..However,looking at the Interview,TH clearly states a $2.2 m profit for the first half ,the $1.8 m is calibrated to that to attain a figure of $4m.Unless some of the renovation dust I'm surrounded in has got to my brain ...that's how I'm listening to that interview.As I say ,I will look at it..Perhaps you could hot line it to TH...
From the Balance Sheet “ sections of the interims RNS
· a $1.4m reduction to the onerous contract provision reflecting payments made in accordance with the original agreement;
So I believe $1.4 of it at very least was from the prior provision .
Hey Sunday :
I looked at the numbers again and also the video and there is some very “ fleet “ interchanging of words between “ profit “ “ cash “ and “ next year “. I stand by my view that the $1.8 was a “ cash “ payment and was NOT included in the “ profit “ number , as had been previously “ provided “ four million cash in is a great number and I wish it were true was pure operational profit . I think that’s just a $$ number including net auction proceeds , collections of overdue accounts receivables plus general trading . If you are indeed correct the company would have made a true 45% trading profit which would be excellent and would extrapolate to over $8m for the year and I’m sorry but I don’t think the company is at that level . I don’t hope to be wrong too often but oh how I wish I am wrong on that point . Remember last year I think we took an 11 million of more provision against this stuff incl $2.1 of bad debt and the rest against the “onerous “ contract . The $5.1 and I believe the $1.8 come out of that I believe . Please be right on this Sunday , it would make my day / weekend .
Good morning SL.I believe that I am correct in my statement ,indeed, Toby confirms as much in his Proactive interview yesterday.Im having a little difficulty providing a link to it..perhaps someone else could..