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Whatever but there is tonnes of value here and very important to perhaps hold tight and not get excited prematurely.
GIVMESUNSHINE,
The NPV you refer to is discounted at 5% whilst MAFL's option will be discounted at 10%. The larger discount really wipes away the future value of later years; £1000 in 10 years at 5% is currently worth £599 but only £349 at 10%. Anyway, we should find out fairly soon what the amount is and if the BOD think that cashing out is in shareholders interests.
Hi Shaz / Lewis - Not the busiest BB.s is it !! Agree though with *** packet After payment in Dec and the upturn in MAFL other investments NAV was about 28p - an that's with zero on the put option.. I think we will get a resource upgrade anyday from assendant,.. how much of it will make its way into the NPV over Mine life remains to be seen .. but good the see that the LT concensus on the current NPV is rasied to $319 million ..
Yes, it’s a regular bad habit from whoever writes the RNS as I’ve seen the dates mixed up previously too. Oh well, another correction will be on the way.
I suspect the live NAV is closer to 30p so brilliant job from the management again. If the put option is calculated in, then plenty of blue skies ahead.
Trade of 23p, so new high. Great to see. I could dummy sell £15k, so someone’s keen to buy. I remember when it was hard to sell £500!
RNS is a little confusing as refers to Q1 23, but is July to Sept 22 due to reporting timings. So although increase NAV, won’t include the large payment from ASD.
This is my third time writing this on an iPhone, this website and it’s adverts/functionally is awful.
From the Presentation using PEA resource = Current NPV US$247m @Spot price = US$389m @Long term concensus = US$314m
March 23 Presentation
One interesting take is that, they appear almost ready to issue the resource upgrade (end of feb early march) so that will give some numbers to crunch on the put option.. looks like that may drop any day
https://s21.q4cdn.com/765868678/files/doc_presentations/2023/03/2023-Ascendant-Corporate-Presentation-March.pdf
Bit of Cerrado news:
"Mark Brennan, CEO & Chairman of the Company, commented, "We are very pleased to be expanding our partnership with our friends at Sprott Streaming and Royalty. We view this additional investment as a strong indication of support for our ongoing development plans to increase the gold production capacity at MDN from 50,000 ozs to approximately 90,000 ozs by mid 2024 with the ongoing development of two heap leaching facilities. Further, the additional inflow of funds is expected to allow the Company to capitalize on the success at Las Calandrias and provide additional non-dilutive financing to fund our development plans".
Mike Harrison, Managing Partner of Sprott, commented, "Our continued support of Cerrado Gold reflects the success achieved at MDN to date and our confidence in the quality of the Las Calandrias heap leach project to expand the production at MDN. This funding will provide increased exposure to a well performing asset in a highly prospective region.""
https://www.investegate.co.uk/cerrado-gold-inc./rns/cerrado-gold-enters-into-financing-agreement/202303030700067522R/
From MAFL's last published accounts
Cerrado Gold: We initiated an investment in common shares of Cerrado Gold in 2019. It now represents 5.4% in the allocated investments. Cerrado is a South American gold producer with a mine, Minera Don Nicolas, in Argentina. Which mined 44,000 oz in 2021 and should mine 50,000 oz of gold. Based comparable valuations presented by Cerrado trades at around US$26 of EV per oz of Au equivalent resource, the comparable producers trade at approximately US$99 p/Oz of Au equivalent resource. Production is expected to grow by 322% over the next 4 years. In the second half of 2022 Cerrado has funded and begun development of a heap leach operation which should amplify its production and lower its all-in sustaining costs (AISC). Additionally, it is infill drilling with an aim of expanding the resource base, defining underground mining potential, while continuously working on optimizing production levels. Cerrado's second, and perhaps more exciting asset is the Monte do Carmo exploration asset located in the state of Tocantins in Brazil. The current project economic indicate, using a US$1,600/oz gold price, an after-tax NPV@5% DR of US$617M, and IRR of 99% while requiring US$126M of CAPEX. The resulting project is estimated to produce gold an average of 131,000 oz per year of gold with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) life of mine of US$612/oz. Whilst these numbers are providing for guidance only and there is no guarantee that either these production levels or the valuations will be achieved, the Directors consider this is an exciting opportunity that they will continue to provide updates on as it progresses. Most independent analysts covering the stock have a share price target of between $2.50 and $5.50 per share.
Not sure what the rules are but since we are now in March, I would rather prefer MAFL release figures up to y/e Dec 2022 instead of faffing about with up to Sep 22.
Agree .. looks complelling..
BAZ - I think we will get a resourse upgrade before Q2 myself - either way no rush , but looking at past compaines it normally flows through seperately in advance of the issued FS
Even if you just take the £5m of cash/listed shares/ideon stake and discount the very high probability 9m payment by 50% to 4.5m and say the news today is worth £1m
That gets you to £10.5m
I would think it’s worth at least that right now when you weigh what it could be worth if the 9m does indeed arrive, a favourable outcome with the Ideon stake, a successful operation in Costa Rica and the 15% government stake still to be resolved.
Has to be worth 13m if one of those works out and 40m if all of them do.
I do also wonder if this Put option is part of a strtegic plan to get the 15% issue cleared and back in MAFL hands , but time will tell on that one - GLA
This month NAV - Sept 22
Mar - Year end results Dec 22
Q2 2023 - Cerrado Gold - initial heap leach operation at Las Calandrias is expected to commence production 90k Oz P/A.
Q2 2023- BFS Ascendant Resources
Q2 2023 - Resource upgrade Ascendant Resources
Agree -The last published NAV is quite out of date.. LS was valued at $1.6 million (I think) before we got the $2.5 million, so with this GS and other investment performance .. even if we valued LS at nothing NAV looks to be 26-28p share. Its nice and quiet, and the weeks are ticking by .. FS 8 -10 Weeks away and ASND's bullishly pushing on
Agreed but mkt will discount that 5% until it is banked but covers 125% of the mkt cap on its own.
The kicker will be any advance on the other 15%
Must also have good ties with Sprott as involved in 2 of the financing to date.
Yes very good work JV - well played!
As for the company, I believe the market is pricing it way too cheap considering the 5% value of LS is worth more than the whole of the market cap as things stand today.
Add all the other bits and you can see where this is going.
All looking like the fruits of the hard work are starting to ripen .. Aonther point of note is that our stake in asendent is up over 50% and touching all time highs ... Roll on FS - Cheers
Having a few million in cash at this stage of the mining cycle is a big plus investing in decent but distressed companies.
Lots of value out there and JV picks are great.
From the annual accounts
"The next phase is to progress from small leach pad production to a 450 tonnes per day CIL plant, which could result in production exceeding 35,000/oz of gold per year. We believe that GSR could receive the project expansion funding via a streaming agreement with a well-known NorthAmerican mining financier in the near term, although there is no guarantee this will occur. '
Probably worth a conservative $1m a year in gold to MAFL based on a $500 an ounce profit. I expect that Golden Sun will not be paying any dividends, just growing production through reinvestment.
Well done BOD / JV
https://twitter.com/Baz9707/status/1625833289314365440?s=20&t=euHE01Ga2c-vMkz09-jA-A
Golden Sun update:
Sprott 10m finance
400 tonnes per day Carbon in Leach (CIL) mill finished Mar 2024
Loan repaid ??
42% increase in value from Y/E NAV ??
$1.6M value at Dec 2022 funding round ??
Royalty payments negotiated
5.2% owned #MAFL
Not too shabby for MAFL though which does historically suffer from poor liquidity.
not huge volume - maybe someone adding - but agree we have see a pattern before an RNS ..its just not easy to buy in any numbers without moving the SP - Have a good weekend
Session closed and I’m off the step.
Closed at 19.25p on very good volume.
Headmaster - it may not be the 15% but I’ll bet a dollar someone knows something.
It's picked up the Uncrossed Trade at 11:00:07
Should come out in the wash at the close, hopefully...