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Rastuss not sure re redundancy schedule being part of conditions! What Jabba is adamant about is no cross subsidisation of loss making mines, it was noticeable in the annual report that cost per tonne was not given for generation 1 mines! Jabba has also said that SBGL may waive conditions if necessary to conclude deal and they have done with backstop date. Starting to sound like brexit!
Rastuss I don't know redundancy law but as these were voluntary by the looks of it they may take less, also not sure contractors would get same so that may explain difference between enforced redundancy just speculating. The difference in numbers is no surprise, been confused by them since SBGL bid as that changed numbers a bit if I recall. What got me was the statement re the 2020 figures we may we maynot depending on viabilty (PGM prices) this where Uncle Joe coming from why close if profitable even marginally to save jobs! Problem is this is short term as LMI needs significant CAPEX to sustain business long term on its own. The board know this is not possible hence takeover promotion.
Rastuss page 16 headcount reduction 2018 2,400 includes 800 contractors. Cost of redundancy 176m rand financial review. Page 16 says further reduction 2019 4,800 includes 2,000 contractor's. 2020 a bit vague as says depending upon PGM prices 3,600 no split for contractors!
It's worth trying Rastuss - It does however change style from vintage to vintage depending on which variety of grapes they use, one year it may resemble a claret the next a rhone. It's always full bodied and spicy and works well with game and North African dishes...
Probably the best wine to drink is a Chateau Musar, being made close to Beirut is the ideal tipple to discuss the pros and cons of Lonmin...
Mr Wellstead probably frequents Karen when in Kenya with Jabba eating gazelle steaks to their hearts content. That may explain the certain roomy waistline... Which wine do you pair with the gazelle steaks probably would match a good Hermitage or perhaps a heady Pauillac...
It has gone rather quiet on the strike front.
What do you use to shoot them a .375 H&H or something a bit larger like a .500 nitro express?
Rastuss - The LMI Board are not up to the job. They have proved that year after year. The PGM basket will probably be higher this year coupled with the potential money from petrozim it is highly unlikely LMI will go bust. If they really were that concerned they would have sold off the Furuya investment and the luxury safari park to boot.
They dropped them to 50 at the close Ta so the rise looks exaggerated.
The Board haven't released the figures as they don't want the share price to rise and more importantly they don't want Uncle Joe to know. The Board want the merger to go through because they will be outed if it doesn't. Uncle Joe knows that LMI has an independent future and he is buying time with his cunning little plan. With respect to him he wants to save jobs at LMI as he knows Jabba will get rid as many as he can as he is more interested in certain shafts and more importantly the smelters and refineries etc. Any guesses for the pe ratio for the end of this year...
Last 1 week or so the SP has been rising almost every day. 1, 2, 3%, it just keeps going up. Perhaps some insider buying + Ruffer. When I see moves like this I'm usually quite worried (if the price is going down) or quite positive if the price is going up, as in this case. It looks to me that someone knows something that we don't. Or it could just be the rise in PMG prices.
Either way we have done very well recently. Let's see if we can close above 50 and from there it could be a quick rise to 52-53.
You never know Rastuss, you maybe cleverer and better informed than them...
Results - probably Monday, but could still come this week. Who knows with Lonmin...
Maybe Ruffer sees an independent Lonmin making lots of money...
Aye
https://gyazo.com/ddab7e13451dd359edf6e486ee22f893
ADRs +6.13% Good news soon?....30-60% undervalued to peers imo
Rastuss thanks surprised no media coverage, good sign though as indicates no violence. Re update yes wait with baited breath and SBGL out soon as well. Hopefully both better than anticipated!
Rastuss have you heard anything re above e.g. impact and numbers out etc. Seen nothing in media I can access and SBGL been very quiet! TT miracles do happen!
Rastuss agree with you about covenants and cost ($11m a year) but still think SBGL have flexibility to make investment decisions that protect jobs as a way of smoothing takeover of LMI! The mexican stand off can only go on for so long!
Rastuss agree significant investment would be required and SBGL finances are tight but think they are in better position due to higher palladium prices in particular in respect of US operations. The SBGL streaming deal not as bad as LMI one they got rid of some expensive debt although it was dressed up a bit! So they may have more flexibilty than anticipated will become clearer at next update.
Rastuss thanks for this, so it looks to me that permanent employees reduced circa 3,500 and contractors circa 2,500 between 2014 and 2017. My confusion re numbers loks like the 2014 article I read referred only to permanent employees and excluded contractors. So progress was made during this period which is good although think the new proposed reduction is a tad ambitious from a redundancy cost situation as you have said in past unless majority are contractors even then reduction program likely to take many years. It's a difficult one for Jabba and Ben they need a plan to take these jobs out but find other areas in process they can be utilised, maybe increasing smelting capacity? I know one of SBGL aims was to get their hands on LMI furnaces as well as mine resources so maybe a plan that invests in down stream added value activities will bring Uncle Joe round! Trying to be positive!
He does look tired and not confident about winnning! It is sad if he is trying to turn into a race issue as should not be relevant in a modern SA! The job losses projected by LMI need to happen for LMI to survive should takeover not happen anyway otherwise he wil have no members at LMI in a year or so. Not sure he fully apppreciates or refuses to understands LMI's financial position. Rastuss I was looking at some old articles about 2014 strikes and 2 things struck me Unions did not win any significant gains as a consequence of the 5 month strike and secondly LMI staff numbers were about 20% less than they are now. Re second point did LMI expand or take over mines to expand headcount after strike a bit odd as they were trying to cut staff then by 5000? Any help in understanding appreciated.
Thanks Rastuss...i see PGMs catching a bit of a bid ATM
Lonmins Q1 2019 results are due now i believe
Hes delaying thats it....strike at lmi will bust them its a risk on his part and amcu members might feel different the leadership are in control....pt wage talks start soon dont they?