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š so funny is HA heās been using theses couple of lines for years they weāre supposed to be being built years ago. Same old bullāit
Ethiopian Ministry of Mines, together with the requested updated completion schedules by the electricity and roads authorities for offsite infrastructure. Only documentation and administrative matters remain;
Did that ANS money ever come in š¤«
Heās a clown š¤”
This will explode one day
The progress continues.....
(((ć»ć»;)
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-saudi-arabia-talks-secure-metals-africa-wsj-2023-09-10/ (Saudi mining)
(from JP Morgan)China currently holds 96% of global copper inventories, 75% of global aluminum, 70% of corn, 54% of wheat, 30% of soybeans and 22% of crude oil: JPM)
https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/gcc/saudi-arabia-uk-review-ways-to-develop-trade-and-economic-relations-j8h3it90 (Saudi UK)
Thanks was one of harry better webinars and did a even better job with conference presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHQ8rYTDnmM where he was more at ease and relaxed was even cracking jokes.
Rob, thanks for all your notes. Haven't had the chance to catch up with the latest HAA interview but from a scan of the comments looks like one of the better updates. Really hoping that TK sign off happens soon and we continue to make progress in SA...
Thanks TinTin that's fast work by the central bank.
Q: The central bank of Ethiopia has published another Directive onto its website. Does that cover what was raised only last Friday by KEFI and our banks.
A: Yes, it covers what we wrapped up on Friday and had been discussing for some time.
Q: I would like to ask why the Chairman is the only spokesperson for the company?
A: KEFI is more transparent and communicative than is required by regulation or is conventional by market practice. Plus it has many more stakeholders than many companies, with funds being raised mostly away from the stock exchange and with a multitude of regulatory authorities examining our communications.
In that context, the most appropriate spokesperson is the head of the company
Q. I expand on some statistics referred to in the annual report before putting my question. The junior gold miners index (GDXJ) started in 2004. It comprises companies with market caps over usd150m. GDXJ started at nil in 2004, 240 in 2011 and is now negative. Could the Chairman give his opinion on whether only a minority of investors ever make money out of junior resources?
A: I will start off by saying that an index for sub-US$150M market cap companies, if such an index existed, would likely display higher highs and lower lows.
Secondly, I think the statistics give us the answer. Between 2004 and 2011 an investment in a cross-section of junior mining stocks made good returns. But the opposite happened since 2011. Tha is a fact.
Thirdly, I can see and feel the despair on AIM. But I am a contrarian. The worst AIM feels, the more I am convinced that it will outperform going forward. Not necessarily next month or next year. But in my view it will outperform as it plays catch-up.
Fourthly, whether or not the cycle now turns positive for the sector or for AIM as a whole, the current positive turnaround of KEFIās situation augurs well for us regardless of the indices and sectoral averages.
Posted 11 September 2023
Part Three
Q.10 Have you looked at selling a project have you seen any approaches?
A.Itās a small world (mining industry) but the best way to optimize return is to deliverā¦(not the right time and circumstances)
Q.11 will the company need further funding in the short term?
A. We have paid all liabilities at the end of June and we do have working capital facilities to carry us through to post closing (would be a whole new ballgame post closing)
Q.12 is there a business plan in place in Saudi?
A.Yes. We are heading to develop two projects and elevating a pipeline of other projects though we might JV multi billion projects.
Closing comments
We have carried on..and all this companies that have come to region show the value of our mission I think when TK is launched there will be a remarkable transformation of perceptions around the company as perceptions have been coloured by past difficulties. But that will be a thing of the past very shortly.
Welcome to those looking at us for the first time and thank you for your patience and support of those of you who have been in there with us.
Questions part 2
Q.6 Saudi stockmarket listing?
A.We have invested a lot of time on this question.. to be a bit flippant we are a bit like rock stars in Saudi in this game having been applauded and patted on the backā¦Saudi Authorities have only had one ipo in years (https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/companies-news/amak-ipo-book-building-closes-successfully-with-736-times-institutional-coverage-junm34mi) and there are only two mining stocks..so the Saudi stockmarket is a bit away from pre-production companiesā¦I think it fair to say the joint venture will look at all alternatives to build a mining house Artar are very serious people and we will as a JV optimize the capital for each project..the individual projects are now being put into their own subsidiaries into post holding companies we have agree to insert this is all to do with creating flexibility for us a a partnership. Saudi is taking off the partners have agree to look at all possibilitiesā¦looking at other ideas as well for kefi (basically up in the air how they may list but obviously giving themselves the option to list somewhere in the middle east hence the reorganization) .
Q.7 If any of the banks refuse credit approval what's the plan?
A the banks have invested three years they have stayed in there they are in the Addis today to sort out the fine print of exchange controls they are serious people they are no doing this in a view to rejecting this..they are development bank that have Ethiopia as a member (they have Ethiopia as a member).
The prize her for kefi is to close that gap between market cap and intrinsic value
Q.8 What is your gut feel for when the banks will sign this off what else do they need?
A. The only reason I will not answer that explicitly as I do not think it s respectful of the internal decision making of the banks (basically in the midst of discussion with the banks so limited over what he can say or anything that may been seen to put public pressure on the banks unnecessary anyway as just got a good report from the banks) but banks were happy to come on plane to sort things face to face and planning to launch next quarter.
Q.9 Are other members of the Syndicate sitting waiting to sign as soon as we get board and credit approval?
A The short answer is yes. The main thing is to.. the main frustration to the shareholder is when can you finish..but its in shareholder interest to hold the line we will not budge till everything is right but we are now moving from the negotiation stage to documentation stage the documentation stage has been dragged forward we are doing some of it now in terms of fine print. There is nothing in the timetable that I would call big ticket of negotiation (no more big hurdles). the government could not be anymore supportive from the start of this year we are first in the queue for mining and a high priority for them.
Questions part one
Q.1 you stated that syndicate lenders meeting with the company this week is one of the final action points of the completion of TK finance are their any more action points remaining?
A. The main thing now is the central bank issues the fine print of the central bank issues are being put in place with the meetings that have taken place this week the next step is the final credit and board approvals of the banks everything from there on is procedural.
Q.2
Resettlement?
A.Is chopped up into Tranches we do not plan to resettle the 350 households in one step so move the people of the airstrip side..it all sequenced out.. the other question was is there equipment in the country there is plenty of equipment in Ethiopia (That can be mobilized)
Q.3 Will there be a similar press photo opportunity to the final umbrella agreement when the final signing when the final financing agreement is signed..?
A.I do not know that banks are open to photo opportunities for final credit approvals but we will take every opportunity we can to record for shareholders everything that is reasonable to do so.
Q.4 wil Jibal Qutman be in production before TK and what percentage ownership will kefi have of JV?
A Jibal Qutman is not ready to triggerā¦I would be surprised but in the scheme of things mining projects being developed for the long term I would expect because it has a shorter time frame for development not at this stage..the other Question was percentages..the value we have made dwarfs the expenditure we have made..the obsession over TK for obvious reasons will alleviate itself as we move forward then we will be able to tackle the Saudi side.
Q.5 If we do not manage to get closure this quarter do we loss another year due to the wet season?
A.You have to be careful about definition of closure..money in the bank..what I said was credit and board approval and it all flows from that..what we have said we will launch during Q4 which is closure..
Https://twitter.com/Investor_Miller/status/1700944026881441794?s=20
I thought it was a fair question. His answer he couldnāt guess on the scheduling of meetings with bankers did make sense as well.
Part three
Having done those three things what's next detailed documentation now flying around circulating for approval from all parties. The most important thing is board and Credit approval from the banks thatās two third of the capital and I think with this weeks progress with the central bank opens the door for us to now proceed. The banks have been working with us for years they are very serious banks and scrupulous over everything being done right. We are now at the point where we can proceed. We are preparing the community already for what comes next which is moving them in stages and procurement will follow signing of detailed documentation. We must hold the line to everything is done formally definitively before we release capital. Today my team was in Kalgoorlie showing the ministry and friends form Ethiopia around and is wonderful.
(Slide 13) The schedule for the two Saudi projects (slide14) The board we are preparing the board that is coming now.
(slide 17,18,20) a great starter project we get everything signed off interdependently the amount of the project capital (being raised by the syndicate) raised is more than the Aim market has raised for its mining companies in the last year.
(slide 21-) Orebody potential for 1moz additional (27.08)
(slide 28-) Suadi Hawiah one of the biggest in the world.
(slide 31) (28.21) The Saudi stock market has taken off for mining Amak Market cap over on billion dollars resources smaller than Kefi.
(Slide 32-) Jibal qutman (going to be ) a string of pits and just exposed a VMS about 50km away from Hawiah.
Part two
(slide8) TK first cab of the rank in the finance closing procedures as we speak (11.10) and the two in KSA are a behind but we have lined up the capital for Saudi as well (we have lined up the capital for Saudi well worth saying twice) in that our partner puts up there share of the capital and the sovereign fund the Sidf the Sidf is engaging already (https://www.sidf.gov.sa/en/ServicesforInvestors/Sectors/Pages/Mining.aspx)
We have no doubt that when the board recommends development on the two projects there finance will follow. WE have a pipeline of exploration projects would venture to say second to none now in the Arabia Nubia region other than Maaden (https://www.maaden.com.sa/) unless you see Maaden as not being in the private sector. There is a pipeline we have assembled in Ethiopia which will emerge publicly as tenure is sorted.
(Slide9) Market cap to NPV as the projects de risk..
(Slide10) Comparison of Kefi value to other miners
(Slide11) The essence of this chart is we have joint venture equityā¦if you add up all the numbers on the Ethiopian side (14.35) that we have lined up preliminary approvals and already final approvals if you add up all the numbers they come upto a bit over 390milion dollars (well suggests to me that some of the syndicate are more advanced in their approvals than others).
On the left (Saudi) awaiting feasibility studies but they are heading in the right direction it is just a question of the resources that are still open,which will grow significantly it not a question of whether we will develop but when. A lot of upside in both countries.
TK is a great start project good grade and no legacy issues robust economics. We have been at the forefront of reforms.
(slide12) We are in the thick of closing..there were three critical hurdles before we could go into detailed documentation with the banks country membership (Ethiopia joining one of the African banks involved in the deal) we assisted in that process, Security needed to be treated as a red zone even though its a green zone the third thing is foreign exchange controls we need relaxation exemption (18.39) (relaxation exemption) and now we were granted this previously but now we are getting down to tin tacks we needed fine detail the fine print had to be agreed between the banks and the central bank of the country. Has been very challenging for us but we have succeeded there have been a series of meeting this week in Addiss (19.16) and the very detailed summary report I received in the last half hour was a string of thumbs up.
Shareholder webinar Part one
Ok a bit fuller transcript though cut some of the chaff my comments in brackets, where I put the time its to highlight some interesting bits (Imho) if you wanted to cheat you could skip through using the time marks then pick out the Questions you are interested in at the end.
This webinar was after the presentation at the conference.
htTps://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-418
htTps://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/presentations/kefi-africa-down-under-conf-pres-sep23.pdf
I will walkthrough the presentation then take questions.
On the Screen is TK (slide 1) in a quite district of Ethiopia and the most important milestone is the closing of the finance and the launching of the project. Where we are in the thick of closing procedures (1.52). It is a 390 million dollar package, the financing has been arranged at the project level and subsidiary level we have avoided use of the stockmaket for the development capital.
(Slide 3) Half of the time we were in Saudi it was a bit of a waste of time.. (History lesson on Saudi)ā¦ regulations now overhauled now Saudi on everyone's lips..we have the largest exploration team in the country in our JV (3.45) we have made two discoveries because we have been there 15 years not to mention the team is a very good team. (4.11) we have been granted 14 licenses (exploration) in the last 18 months or so. We have a very strong partner in fortune 100..(htTps://www.artar.com.sa/)
Ethiopia today is even more important and even more of a turnaround frankly..(history lesson Ethiopia)..Two years ago it turned and is even more striking (to Saudi) to those involved. (6.08) Yesterday in Perth we I am at the moment the minster for mines made a speech his statement acknowledged that Kefi was at the heart of the reform process and we will be the first mining development in thirty years. So we happen to be for the first time in 15 years
we are charging forward on both fronts.
(slide 4) The numbers are strikingly obvious to the upside as we derisk. TK as you will see over the next few months as we tick boxes and launch according to our schedule, the multiple of values will start to reflect themselves in share prices. We will be able to move forward and make progress there are a lot of measures you can use her but they all show a lot of upside.
(slide5) Companies in the region we have the projects that are first in the queue for development
(slide6). The changes in Ethiopia were down to introduction of democracy (another history lesson).
(slide7) Saudi (in the past) the regulations did not let us do our work really but now they do.
I have the same money invested, albeit less shares because I encountered HAA soonerā¦..
Harry is not someone that does presentations with brevity he simply is not a natural presenter has the tendency to vear off at tangents you have to kind of dredge for the nuggets and read between the lines. Saying that the company has made major efforts to improve the answering of questions over the last few years with half the Quarterly presentation used for this and a Q and A section on the website.
Sure they can do better but compare it to other companies where you can get zero questions answered. While I have to subdue my desire to scream when harry say first cab off the rank for about the thousandth time the webinars are actually useful, especially when you have so much going on its hard for shareholders especially new ones to absorb it all and get a full picture just from the RNSs. You can see it in the SP action this with the webinars having a bigger impact than the RNSs as you needed the Webinars to complement them.
Caterham7
One hundred and ninety six thousand pounds invested in a AIM share
Makes my trading pot look a bit ridiculous
I really hope that this comes good for you
I think there are a significant number invested here with 20M+ shares. Don't forget there are 5 BILLION shares in total so 20m is only 0.4%!
Sixnoughts - lot of people with large Kefi holdings on this BB. Iāve got 28,000,000 shares at 0.7 average, and intend to scoop another Ā£20k this month at these silly prices. Iām in no rush to cash in, so the apparent delays donāt bother me.
Q4-22 apologies
It was my question eshaitan.. and a very legitimate one at that, to which he gave a condescending, wooly & dismissive reply.. in a pompous way..
I simply asked the obvious question (to a man who openly commented that the finance was nearly over the line at the end of Q4-23) and also complimented him on (another) great presentation.. I was trying to be kind..
āYouāre very close to this Harry, whatās your gut feel for timing re financial close?ā
Jeez.. heās given enough āgut feelsā over the years which have been utter baloney.. I was hoping for a better one, given the āimminenceā he kept referring to.. just got Exec guff..
I like this investment, always have - but, 7 years in, Im starting to see a Chairman I donāt think is that flash when it comes to delivering fact with brevity and dealing well with the difficult questions..
I have watched this and listened to the investor meet interview. Harry seems very confident.
One of the questions on the investor meet presentation was as he is is close to the process what is his gut feeling on.how long this will take for closure? He refused to answer that, but on the pay dirt presentation he said weeks away from final approvals with signing of documentation shortly after and launching within months.
I have been invested here for what seems like a long time through countless delays but I do think this will complete this month. Its very close. Could be a trade here if I could put in more money but I think my wife would divorce me if I did!
Eldave. I have watched that video. I was truly impressed. It just shows what a great relationship he has with Ethiopia per se.
This could be the start of greater things to come with other mines being handled by KEFI there?
As Harry has always said 'First cab off the rank!'