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Rastuss, FWIW Nova haven't agreed to buy shares, they have received "irrevocable undertakings to accept, or procure acceptance of" (the offer at 640p/sh) as it was put in the 14th Dec. announcement (not released as an RNS, but via Businesswire News). It's an 'call option' if you like. There's no handing back if it doesn't proceed.
Fair enough on the other points.
It changes nothing. No news in today's RNS al all. They always controlled the newsflow. If they don't achieve 75%, they will not bother buying a single share, not even from those who have agreed to sell (notably only their Kazakh and Russian friends, who no doubt have been persuaded to sign irrevocables by doing side deals). Everything will stay as it was before, but the newsflow will have to change to a positive one. After all they would likely need an equity partner to finance Baimskaya and to do that they would need to start telling people a positive story about it. This is their last chance to grab the company into private ownership on a cheap, and if this fails, all attention would shift to talking up the value of Baimskaya and driving the share price up with it. And with copper price supporting, investors have nothing to lose and a lot to gain. Hold and vote against the deal - this is the only way to maximize your return on this. And a safe investment in the current market as the floor has been set at 640p and the share price would move substantially higher as soon as this deal fails or Nova will raise the bid in order to get to 75%, and raise it substantially. It's a no brainer, imho.
Rastuss: Getting over 50% does not achieve anything for kim and novachok, or at least not anything that they do not have already. I would venture to speculate they always maintained over 50% controlling position one way or another (and 100% control over the toothless board, as their current offer recommendation has plainly shown). Nova need 75% to take full control and have a shot at delisting the company, and that is not an easy thing to do. The more time that passes since the October announcement, the more difficult it would become for them, and the more likely they would fail in achieving the 75% target. This is because for as long as the share price stays above their offer price of 640p, any shares that change hands at above 640p are passed from those who are happy to sell (who’d otherwise accept the offer) to those who think the price should be higher absent the offer and would certainly reject the current offer. Otherwise why buy now, right? As for Nova, they would not dare to buy a single share now, even through friends or proxy parties, and definitely not above their offer price - this is too risky even for crooks like them.
The formal offer will be made sometime before 4 February, and that is potentially more than three months (!) of shares gradually bought up by those who will be rejecting the offer (as long as price remains above 640p). And as long as the copper rally holds, more shareholders will become convinced that KAZ should be trading in the £8-10 range and would not accept the offer.
I really think Nova would have to increase the offer, otherwise I’m willing to bet, by holding on to my shares, that they would fail.
All imho, no advice intended )
Rastuss, but if the institutional investors were taking your advice (to sell) one might think that the shares shouldn't be trading in volume well above the offer price. Who would they be selling to? Obviously, P.I.s are not the ones lifting this.
The concern might be that one or more 'supportive parties' are picking up stock at a premium.
Sold on the basis that I think this will be taken private @6.40 hope I am wrong but with the market being as it is, I think I will be able to make a sound investment elsewhere in the coming weeks. Best of luck one and all.
Yes we do!
Hello, just been watching this stock. Interesting that share price has not benefited much from the increase in copper prices. Anyone knows why the management want to take the company private?
It is not a 'done deal'. It's a derisory proposal. The intitial attempt fell at the first hurdle. This latest should be treated with similar contempt. If you disagree with this action, as clearly people here do, capitulation is not the answer. The s/p is telling. Given the outlook for copper there are quite likely active parties all over this. What have you to loose by holding?
Shareholders are presently being offered much less that the general rise in similar companies over the period and no bidder premium. Is that a good offer? I don't think so.
rastuss: that is one of my biggest gripes with the "independent committee", that they have appeared to ignored other value considerations and have only focused on one. I sincerely doubt the Nova offer was the only available value consideration. An alternative would have been to put baimskaya on hold or even kill the project if not saleable. I really believe that in the drastic case of killing the project, that announcement would have caused the sp to increase big time. Of course that would mean the independent directors of Kaz would have acknowledged an error with Baimskaya in the first instance. Confirms that these indep comm directors would rather screw minorities and keep their egos and future directorship opportunities alive than admit an error in judgement and put the value of shareholders first. Very unprofessional of them, while they enjoy their fees for doing what appears to be nothing!
So, since the two largest shareholders of kaz could not get their way, despite having pulled the wool over the eyes of the "independent committee" with a ridiculously low offer, they have again co-opted the same independent committee to allow a change in the mechanism to get their way. This independent committee appears to be nothing more than a rubber stamp to the largest shareholders while ignoring all other shareholders and its appears their fiduciary duty. Again the new announcement says that they believe it is better to take the group private to develop Baimskaya given the increased risk....blah blah blah. I believe that probably means they would not be able develop the asset given corporate governance requirements and laws in the UK applicable to companies with regards to "facilitation payments". Given the perceived corruption in Russia (no offence to the russians here, there is plenty of corruption in the western world - its perhaps more well hidden but boy does it happen too) and the infrastructure requirements, i believe "payments" will be made to expedite the project. I would not be surprised if in ten years time, Kaz minerals re-lists (assuming Baimskaya success) at a price in excess of £10/share (depending on metal prices of course), handing them a very nice profit. has the independent committee considered what the valuation would be if Baimskaya was suspended for now, or even stopped and sold off? Why does the indep comm not suggest that Kim and Novachuk buy Baimskaya for say $400m, allowing Kaz to realise a loss and then move on from there? That would massively support the Kaz price in my view, given the other great assets in Kaz's portfolio. In this way, Kaz will be free of Baimskaya, and will be able to focus on its producing assets and generate cash flows and also pay dividends. Kim and Novachuk can then use dividends from Kaz to part fund baimskaya and use their shares as security. Lots of alternatives available to increase value of Kaz, something that the indep comm appears to have either forgotten, chosen to ignore or are actively involved in this fire sale. Something here does not make any sense! Lets hope more than 25% of shareholders reject offer and then hopefully they cannot delist which will bind them to corporate governance and anti-bribery and corruption laws. I doubt this will happen as small shareholders are resigned to defeat from the outset and the biggest shareholders are laughing all the way to the bank after having been approved by the indep comm. Is there any way to get the FCA or the takeover panel involved to investigate this?
After over 10 years holding Kaz (was also in Kazakhyms back in the day), I sold. I think they hold all the cards plus there are a lot of other things moving in the market. I went into Glen. Although not pure copper, they still are one of the biggest copper producers plus exposure to cobalt. Glen, has underperformed so I am hoping that a changing of the guard in Glen and the Whitehouse plus a bit of mean reversion and the chance of a Divi might be a good call
Rastuss: I Completely agree, so when do we sell and whats the next copper play, I bought Saga recently as I like the recovery play for the holiday trade but I rejected any investment in PXC
extract re the price:
Save where set out in this announcement, the terms and conditions of the Acquisition remain unchanged from those outlined in the Original Announcement (subject to appropriate amendments to reflect the change in structure by which the Acquisition is to be implemented). In particular, under the terms of the recommended Takeover Offer, KAZ Minerals Shareholders will be entitled to receive 640 pence in cash for each KAZ Minerals Share, representing a premium of approximately 24.9% to the Closing Price of 512.4 pence per KAZ Minerals Share on 2 October 2020 (being the last Business Day prior to agreement having been reached with the Independent Committee).
The Conditions will be amended only insofar as required to reflect the implementation of the Acquisition by way of the Takeover Offer. The amended Conditions are set out in Appendix 1 to this announcement.
Only other comment, is regarding paying more for all shares if the offer is increased..... unlikely at this stage in my view, these guys wanted to get this out prior to it rocketing again and are pushing it through, it doesn't matter about the insignificant shareholders, 6.40 is looking a bargain of the century.
Long term(+5years) / currently not holding large chunk as I managed to time a few fortuitous exits, it has been a rocky road, now looking seriously at taking 50% out at this level and taking my chances letting this new kazaki drama playout. Always believed in the play/ project, but cautious \skeptical about the rather dubious actors and hidden agendas.
but cannot understand why this is trading about 25% higher than the takeover offer. It makes me feel very uneasy about investing at this level.
Can anyone help a newbie like me understand what's going on?
Kaz is also 3% better off.
I agree, the problem is the offer needs to either be withdrawn (very unlikely as i don't see any benefit in withdrawing the offer all that will happen is the price) or Turned down and currently we are a long way from that happening. First there is a court case to decide who has what voting rights, then we must have ( i assume an EGM) and people vote. That process at best won't be complete until the end of Jan. and in the meantime the price of copper rises. The money i moved from Kaz last week into ANTO is already 3% better off for being moved.
Kaz is likely to surge beyond £8 in my view, based upon its under performance verses the copper price and other copper focussed miners.
Well the market seems to have given its verdict on the offer price of 640p. I just hope the offer is either formally with drawn or substantially increased in the relatively short term, because as others are pointing out KAZ is being very stagnent in a rising copper market. AAL, ANTO and Glen are all on the move.
PHOENIX COPPER. USA Bulls
Last Signal:STAY OUT
Last Pattern:NO PATTERN
Last Close:0.4918Change:+0.0043Percent change+0.88%Signal UpdateOur system’s recommendation today is to STAY OUT.Market OutlookThis security is unfortunately out of our scope. Our system ceased to analyze it because the available data is not able to meet the minimum standards for candlestick pattern recognition.
Copper futures climb to levels not seen since 2013
Market Watch
Myra P. Saefong
Seems to be a fair few buys today so maybe something is up.... or at least speculation that there will be a revised offer, has to be starting with an £8 for fair value and above that for projected value, but I have a bad feeling that this is as good as its going to get and we are missing out on other share price gains whilst we wait in KAZ.....
Rastuss, I hear FCA are already investigating