Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Not sure abt your argument as to why the govt won't pay. The oligarch in question was the employer of the president and in case you didn't notice doesn't seem to have any problems in Ukraine right now. I also don't think there was any finding in Ukraine that he owes the govt anything. So I don't think it's as clearcut as you suggest.
Hard to say whether it's cash that's key or just the increase in gas prices recently but I like your conclusions. It is generally sentiment that determines if pple will buy or sell. The SP has gone down in the last week or so yet cash will have gone up Still there's the cash they're owed by the govt still to add in. There's a potential Russian sale. They brought in $15m last quarter, next shld be more, maybe a lot more if all goes well and of course we don't know what will happen with the new well.
Is up 2.2% EU dutch this afternoon
Any idea what the sp will be if the new well comes in good,thks
I think its a little optimistic as multiplying the current cash (due to the bubble in gas prices) is not realistic in moving forwards. My calculation would be to add a further £35M to the market capitalisation of the company based on your share price as of 30/6/2021 which is an additional 20p I think (£35M / 175M shares = 20p). So share price around 50p. This is probably a bit too pessimistic as the bubble will likely continue up to the end of Q1 2022 for then maybe add another £20M then share price might be around 60p at the end of Q1 2022. So based on your cash assumptions my assessment would be somewhere between 50-60p.
every share has a SP correlating with one of the basic ratios of P/B, P/S, P/NAV, P/E etc etc. working with JKX I believe the SP has a correlation with cash and is strongly effected by the $14m potential liability we have. for example;
30/6/20 cash was 14.5m and SP was 18p. ratio 18/14=0.8
31/12/20 cash was 24.3m and SP was 33p. ratio 24.3/33=0.74. take the average so= 0.77
30/6/21 cash was 36.5m and SP was 30p?? However, April we learn about potential 14m Liability so (36.5-14)/0.77 and SP should be 29p to maintain the correlation, so fair price. Likewise,
30/9/21 cash was 51.5 and therefore predicted SP is (51.5-14)/0.77 = 49p, pretty close correlation again!
at year end, I believe, subject to energy prices, that cash will be in excess of 72m and therefore predict/expect SP to be around (70-14)/0.77 = 75p
so can some one else estimate cash and year end and offer confirmation or otherwise. BTW, I did predict a 51.5m cash position at Q3 using the interims and changes in energy prices. DYOR and check my logic and numbers... We are undervalued but we know why
Barry,
I'm trying to protect you....
You can go around claiming all these Oligarchs are criminals or not depending on you weekly trades that fine by me.
However your name is now on the JKX share register today.
I'm just saying. Be carefully. "hello is that Siberian airways"
Oh Barry you such a very naughty boy!
Presumably you gain or lose confidence in companies based on your current holding.
"he is a very naughty boy!"
lost confidence18 Oct '21
I've lost confidence in this one, I see loads of tweets and messages aboout how great cash build is, and it is good but there are too many traders out there looking for a quick 10-15%. Price goes from 46-50p sells off, then 54p sells off back to 49/50p.
No one mentioning the biggerst holders Eclairs with 28% holding because no one does any research. The main guy owes Ukrainian govt $2bn over corrupt Privat bank. No way will Ukrainian govt give JKX the £12m its is in a legal battle for.
Personally feel ENW Enwell which is Ukrainian has 100% exposure to rising gas prices (unlike JKX only has 40%) is a better gas company also has $65m in bank, no debt, no legal cases.
Trickling
All buys since 9.30am looks like we have buyers now trickerling back in
I wasnt suggesting about switching, I was just saying about adding and there was an opportunity there to make money. Yes I'm out of ENW and sp could well go up, I'm not the oracle, but I'm happy with the profits I got from it, sp could easily keep going to 62p previous ATHs. All depends on the news. Tom - Its not about being proved right or wrong, I'm hoping like many JKX shares will start going back up to 55p. The cash build is very good, we all expect JKX to perform better.
Things can change very quickly here like in the past
Well done BARRY.For by part I cant see switching horses is a good idea,as you have said you have sold you obviously think theirs not much left.I am waiting patiently for the next set of figures then I will be proved right or wrong.gl
I did say ENW was a good alternative to JKX 11 days ago - of course several had a go at me (tom111 & Ripper). I've just sold out of ENW as been in it for several years and bought back in JKX at these levels.
ENW has a really tight free float 17% (+6% Pope Investments so really its 11%) and there was a billionaire takeover attempt couple of years ago, this could be happening again? They are also due drill results and these could be better than expected. I also believe that the major s/h 83% (Smart Energy) could be buying remaining shares, taking the company private off AIM. They dont need to be on AIM as loads of cash and never need to do a placing. I've never liked the fact that ENW or JKX directors never buy any shares in own company, not sure why and also neither pay out dividends. But something is definietly going on in ENW as theres been an aggressive background buyer since 20p.
Dosnt make sense risky but this is AIM people selling having taken a profit and not prepared to wait for the next news
Next three months this share will do fine, slight inclination of cold weather and up it goes.
What is is about Enwell that makes it more attractive than JKX? Or so it seems looking at the price which keeps rising.
Wouldn’t suggest is the worse share ever, it’s making a healthy profit, back drop of winter and high gas prices, even if the market tanks this commodity led business will come roaring back so I put £5, down 20% but will just leave it. My second trade, first I sold with about 15% gain
Pjf - Like all shares it depends what price you bought in. I bought 60,000 about 18 mths ago at 15p, I sold half about 6 mths later for 30p leaving me 30,000 free shares. I then sold 10,000 at 30p a few mths later to bank some profit - I now hold 20,000. JKX is a good company, but in a country with a dodgy reputation. When updates are due the SP normally rises because the company rarely disappoint, that said it is a bit under most peoples radar and the SP drifts when there doesn't appear to be much happening. Don't expect too much uplift before the end of Dec/early Jan unless there is some big news.
When did you buy in? Most here are +50% up
Awaiting well results,must be near
Worst share i have ever had the misfortune to get involved with
The sp here has only a 30% float at best so is very volatile on small amounts of trades,it can also rise rapidly at any given time,odd situation
Taking a look at Enwell now the share price drop in the first half of October was short-lived and the share price is back at a 2021 high.
Not up to speed on Enwell, but I recall that some their production will be lost in early 2022 when there is a planned facilities upgrade.
I would have though that Ukrainian gas and oil price increases would work equally in favour of both companies?
Today's Dutch TTF gas Dec 21 price is down at 78.6 / Mcm which is equivalent to $880 / Mcm but that is still double the Ukrainian gas price realised by JKX in Q3 which was $431 / Mcm. Might expect that JKX cashflow would have now doubled since Q3.
Let's reiterate again - in last 3 months (Oct. especially) gas prices are at huge and unprecedented level not seen in last 10 years and that has huge impact on JKX revenue that I believe has NOT been reflected yet in its sp. This is despite drop in production as currently (and last 6 months) the impact of this is in my opinion marginal comparing to gas prices growth.
Lets do some simple calculation just for October and just for gas in Russia (assuming quoted $65 per mcm as in last quarterly report) and Ukraine (assume average price for Oct of around $1250 or around UAH 33,000). That gives revenue of around $23.5 Million or GBP 17 Million which is a quarter of market cap in revenue for just one month (excluding oil). And you are telling me all this revenue has been priced in? Even if gas prices drop the potential is huge here based on how much money they are making just in Sep in Oct and sp should be much much higher.