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You think this quarter will be good. Next quarter, starts tomorrow and its looking like it will be ridiculous.
Ukraine, boepd 01 March 2021 3,843
Ukraine, boepd 01 June 2021 4,101
Ukraine, boepd 01 September 2021 4.402
New well was operational since 21 may 2021 taken this into account expect the Ukraine, boepd for 3rd quarter at 4.402
With this in mind expect turnover to equal the same as first six months turnover with net profit of $23 million
Not counted Russian assets as not known gas price to give estimate
In other words by end of year value of cash will equal value of company , 3 weeks to next 3rd quarter
only couple of weeks maybe less until the next update, they are pretty quick in this area
Does anyone know much about the Russian pegged gas prices, does this ever get reviewed or change, if so when?
@SR123 could you post a link to where you are following the Ukranian gas prices please?
and someone mentioned the oil being pumped out daily too
huge numbers and whilst i appreciate like many that commodities can quickly drop i guess this is also based against the type of winter coming, whether russia wishes to release more? which i never quite got with oil in that they tended to always release more to drive the price down when they had the market. why would russia release too much more, granted it would worry of loosing market share however not close anywhere near this point as yet
And my only other thought, if I buy at the moment I’m buying commodity based, cash generating stocks. The market will pull back everywhere, commodity stocks will recover, many others won’t
i got out of fxpo sometime ago and timing wise slightly too early. however that doesn't bother me as its about wealth preservation next 12 months or so, I'm not here to make loads.
I'm big on devaluation of currencies, debt levels, economic roll over and inflation coming through that actually the central banks can do little about but the bond markets will.
i;ve taken a very small position here plus GCL which i hope to make even no more than 10% on and will cash out next couple of months max as the prices drive upwards. i'll then wait for a correction, i dont think weve seen even half of whats coming, right back down, very low asset levels with which to then buy back in and see a huge, inflation led upside for the next few years. when this breaks my cash is ready;
JKX, FXPO, RIO, BP, BRWM are my pick, overall high value, big stocks that will work against inflation for me and handout huge divi payments. alongside GCL for the uranium play and one fund that buys PMs. ive a few others, most are high value plays also like unilever which is now below £40 which doesnt happen often.
the market is overcooked in all the wrong sectors for the future, move over tech, commodities and value coming through.
fxpo down to £2.
Hi unvrkw
so I take you are not buying back in Fxpo yet.
I a
have also edged on my energy bill with Jkx and in Serica. Serica will present results tomorrow awaiting to top up in case there is a sell on the news sp dropp.
Miners after recent commodities price correction are all on the retreat, one would thing this is the right moment to start accumulate for an economic rebound, but with China slowing down, Evergrande and other macro issues many are expecting a correction that may take some time to be priced in. This is why I am becoming adverse to long term holding, has there is very little visibility out there. You hinted at commodities drop of, which lot of it has already occurred, but if GDP around the world start to disappoint, it will be hard also for energy prices to keep up at theses levels. Theses days energy and commodities prices seems to be affected more by singular events, than by markets and trends, to the point that has become quite unpredictable to forecast a trend. Lots of volatility out there require lots of caution.
looks like some are favorable and up like gas and oil on demand whereas the big miners are on the decline again like to rio etc. i've actually hedged a little in here to go against my at home gas bills alongside awaiting a huge drop off in all commodity stocks to then buy back in. interesting six months ahead
Next leg up started?
First time purchaser of this one earlier today, looks promising but i agree somewhat with Gambler on the sense not to hold longer term. Normally im a lth invester, here i will be looking for a modest % rise and trading however, although the figures suggested do look good.
Good luck all however you play it.
Being a Friday imo the sp has held up well after the spike.With most profit takers gone I would have thought next week could be interesting
Thanks.
If gas / oil prices are maintained and JKX can continue with the odd big producing drill (which they tend to do), they will be drenched in cash and cash flows. Maybe the market will see that as a reason to value much higher than current SP.
My opinion is that the situation in Ukraine and general governance problems limit this share - some people don’t think they will ever get their hands on the cash.
Maybe I am completely wrong. Maybe I am totally misreading the share. But it doesn’t matter to me, I’m not investing, I’m trading.
Good luck to those who see it differently.
There is no way to verify anybody’s trading by what they post, so whether you believe me is not here nor there.
I was trading this 8 years ago and have dipped in three or four times, doubled twice and and taken fair profits on other occasions. So am able to see the value of the ability of this company to generate net profit against the low market valuations (when it has hit sub 20s). That has been a solid trade over the last ten years for JKX. I have always thought anything in the 40s is a bit full as a valuation and this has proven to be a smart exit point over the years.
If you believe this can go well over 40p then fine, you will be duly rewarded if it does. But for a trader like me it is the risk of not taking profit against losing that potential upside vs time spent being invested.
I’m trading this share because of its small size and Ukraine risk profile. I don’t see it as an investment opportunity. If you think it is, then we disagree. That is just a perspective I’m sharing with this board. So there is no need to bring your emotions into the discussion. If you disagree, just layout your reasoning.
You have a total of 2 posts, both today I will leave others to believe you, lol
No, I’m a profit taker. Very comfortable missing potential next legs up if I have more than doubled my money. I’m trading when I buy shares like this, not investing. I’ve doubled my money on this share before, years back. It has been good to me. The idea of trading here with a startling position in the 40s is ridiculous.
When I invest, I buy shares in much larger companies that are not in lawless states. Companies like this are a bit of fun for maybe 10 grand of my money.
If it goes back to low 20s I will happily jump back in. If it doesn’t, I don’t care - I’ve taken my money.
But you would say that wouldn't you,results coming sooon then you will probably scamble back in lol
Rarely do I ever get out at the top of a surge but I did this week giving a 2.2 profit. Was genuinely undervalued at low 20s / sub 20s , but now much closer to fair value. Don’t see the huge upside at this price but a fair chance of drift back down to the 30s.
Happy to join as an investor to this company. Very attractive risk/reward opportunity. Only reason the share price is down here is due to the operating location.
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Hi Daytrade. JKX did $7m cash growth + $4m inventory (which gets converted to cash obviously) when gas was less than 8,000uah. In one quarter the gas price has more than x3 and expected to stay expceptionally high beaucse of low inventories and winter coming. JKX will present staggering numbers and will make the market cap look ridiculous there. High gas prices obviously good for TGA also as coal demand increases. No surprise to see coal at new highs, just wish i hadn't sold lol
Hi SR, thought id come over here to reply, far too many disrruptive idiots over on TGA board that cant bear to hear/see a different narative or viewpoint. Shall give jkx a lookover and have a read up. You are quite correct that the gas market has gone bonkers, just like coal, in fact the whole energy market really which has made a huge move away from the in trend renewables. It seems to almost be turning into a war of attrition between the old school of fossils and the new school of dreamland. At least with JKX the business has been around for more than the 3 months of tga :)
NATO and US troops are In Ukraine so I don't expect anyone to rock the boat some how
i managed to get 10k @44.8 from Barclays