Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
TF, thank you for kind and thoughtful comments.
I think Ixico’s potential is considerable esp. in view of their niche in the market, and the fact that people are living for longer, and populations are growing, not just in UK and Europe, but also in India and China.
As soon as I able, I will be topping up my position here and hopefully I might even be able to avg. down a tadge.
Never easy to get these things "just" right ... this one is going to work out fantastically for you just need to be a little patient thats all.
Sorry to hear about your mother in law .... it is such a cruel disease, I am confident we will make huge inroads towards treating it in the next 10 years and Ixico will play a huge part in that. ATB
Honestly, I dont know what Ixicos policy on insider trading is, it is probably public information .... I know where I have been involved in the past it was anything that was likely to be material to the share price .....
TF, thank you for advice on ISA –
FYI - I have two ISAs maxed out for this year and 2 holding a/cs. Ixi in both ISA a/cs. I spent quite a few weeks researching Ixico before making my commitment – I hesitated for 2 days – watched the 25p entry point rise to 27p before jumping in. When I did, only a small number of shares were available so could only buy shares as and when. Watched SP hit 36p and then go back down. I am confident that in the long term you are correct, and the SP will be much more than today. Hopefully, as you say in the next 2 to 3 years it will be in multiples. But it would be nice to be in the green and blue again! I hold the view that Ixico’s SP looks cheap – debt has fallen considerably; new contracts have been secured; directors are buying and the companies involvement with Kings might very well lead to other benefits – So for me I consider it a very good investment.
Another reason why my wife and I invested in IXI is that my brother-in-law has Parkinson’s and is in a Nursing home and my mother-in-law, who has been living with us for over 2 years, has vascular dementia. My wife and I are not emotionally involved with this company, but we both know how debilitating these illnesses can be and being invested in Ixi is something that might not only help use to make some money but also may in some very small way by being invested here help others with these terrible illnesses so for us it is a win-win. Thankfully, we are fortunate that we are able to accommodate my mother-in-law and look after her for now and also still have room for our children and their entourages when they decide to pay us a visit.
I take your point on insider trading, but I thought that Directors’ ability to buy or sell shares was restricted only in the case of M&A and not new business contracts unless they had insider information that was not known to the public. I am not sure where the line is drawn if directors have insider knowledge that informs that a company might soon be likely to want to do business with them. I assume Ixico is proactive in encouraging new clients to use their technology and must have some insights as to which pharmas are about to start trials etc.
Pap, I don't think it breaks etiquette .... good luck on your other punt .... you will be fine in IXI in the long-term if you are not holding it in an ISA maybe you should think about that.
In the worst case they will get taken over by CRO .... there is lots of private equity money rolling up this fragmented market at this point. It would be hard to make a case for that to be at a price of less than 60p given the amount of cash they are holding. Fundamentally very little downside and plenty of upside it is just going to require a little patience. The other thing I like about it is that although the shareprice may get knocked about a bit in an economic downturn the fundamentals of the business are not dependent on the economic cycle and I think that is not a bad place to be in the coming year or two. Best of luck to you.
Only other thing I would say is that I think the recent director buying is very positive but it probably suggests there are no major contract announcements in the near term as otherwise they would have been restricted in their purchases.
TommyFlowers thanks for sharing your SP info, I am pleased for you. Sadly, I was late to the party and now avg. about 30p. At the time I could only buy small trunches, but was in when SP went to 36p but did not sell as I was looking long term and still am. Now SP has gone south - I wished I had sold and bought back in – Then I would have acquired more shares and a better avg. - Hindsight is a wonderful thing - C'est la vie. However, I am learning every day. TBH I am about 1k+ down today on Ixi but am not worried as I am very hopeful and confident that we will see the SP rise in the next 12 months. I am also hoping that in the next 8 days - if the very risky investment I just made works out (a bit of a gamble) I will be in a position to buy more Ixi shares than I sold the other day and who knows, if the Ixi SP stays where it is for a few days, I might even be able to average down a tadge. I read somewhere that people on these BB don't usually share their investment details so I am sorry if I have broken some etiquette, but having seen so much ramping and de-ramping statements by some investors on other BBs, I hope that anyone can see from my comments that I am not being duplicitous, and genuinely want Ixico to do well and for the SP to rise.
Papillon, with patience I think we will all be good here. Nothing wrong with trimming and adding at times that suit you best. For me I am a very happy buyer below 25p. I suspect we need two decent size contract wins and we will say goodbye to the 20s for good. I think until then we will bounce around between the low 20s and low 30s.
TommyFlowers thanks for your reply. As always, your comments are really appreciated. I hope your notions of 12x and 20x are correct. I too like you are looking long term but hope to see some movement in SP in the near future. I like smith999 am heartened by the Ixico’s sole broker’s comments. However, sadly in the last few days the SP has moved south, let’s hope a new contract is secured soon (which is what I have been hoping for) and the SP moves north again soon.
FTR I sold a small number of my IXI shares yesterday inorder to invest in something else - If it works out I will be able to buy back those shares and add more.
House broker Shore Capital said the full-year performance represented ongoing momentum from earlier reporting periods, with IXICO having now delivered more than 25% in reported revenue growth in the previous four reporting periods. “Importantly, the revenue growth has been delivered from a strong performance across all of the business divisions, namely clinical trials services, Assessa PML, wearables projects and licensing revenue,” it added. The broker pointed out that the contract wins in the last reporting period also highlighted the ongoing diversification of IXICO’s business as it moves away from a historical and predominant focus on Alzheimer’s disease to include several other neurological conditions, including Huntington’s disease and progressive supranuclear palsy, and the use of innovative technology for novel applications - wearable biosensors in psychiatric and neurological disorders.
Are going on now worldwide....IXI is at the forefront in its field..great time to be in here
IXI pipeline of commercial contracts has been strong expect a New neuroscience contract in the near future
I think the key will be for the market to see that they can be consistently profitable ... I suspect that takes another year and some announcement of additional contract wins. From my perspective however it really is the longer term that I am interested in. I see know reason within 3 years they could not get to a positive EBITDA 5 to 7 million ... depending on the view from that point I think you could apply a multiple to that of between 12x and 20x. So that could see you with a market cap of between 60 million to 140 million. Even at the low end that is 5x from here.
For me the key is do they need to dip substantially in to the net cash to fund organic growth.
Just on the AD market, yes there are lots of interesting approaches at various stages. In truth we still don't know why the Amyloid trials are failing, is there sufficient levels of antibodies getting in to the brain ?, Are the antibodies binding with less toxic soluble and plaque forms of amylod thus swamping what little antibodies enter the brain and leaving the oligomeric forms untouched, are the trials targeting patients that are too far advanced for antibodies to work ... we also don't really understand what effect the microgila play.
My own view is that we will end up with combination approaches that may include lifestyle changes and drug combinations. I tend to side with the scientist that are looking at the early role played by the immune system in AD. Although they are not looking at AD as an initial indication I suspect something like Athersy's (ATHX US) Multistem will be part of the solution.
Thank you TommyFlowers for your comments, which I found very interesting. TBH I didn’t know anything about PML or Ixico had any involvement with it - I will try to do some research on PML as soon as I get a chance. Regarding the failure of the amyloids plaques targeting trials, I guess that in the short-term, as you say, many in the pharma community will go back to the drawing board to think about new and alternative approaches. However, as you will no doubt know there are already some alternative approaches being undertaken e.g. Royal Hollow are seeking a way to restore levels of normal autophagy to block the death of brain cells; and there is also an ongoing study being undertaken in respect of the Chamorro people’s mysterious ailment called lytico-bodi, which some seem to believe might have merit in helping to find a cure for AD. I also read that currently there are more than 100 clinical trials in progress – I have no idea which phases. So in view of these trials and the new contracts Ixico picked up; as well as the new collaborative project with Kings, and also the directors’ recent investments I had hoped that we might see an announcement that some more collaborations with Ixico were in the pipeline and would see a subsequent rise in the SP, which sadly does not seem to have happened yet. I still have my fingers crossed. Have you any thoughts on how son befiore we will see the start of a sustained rise in the SP?
Pappilon1,
No you would not be wrong and I think in the longer run as pharma rethinks the problems and I suspect looks to combination therapies or other protocols then IXI will be a beneficiary. I see a time when IXI is pared with Cognitive testing in order to establish and monitor the treatment pathway for each patient.
My negative view on the AD trials market is short term and cyclical than long term and structural .... The failure of the amyloids plaques targeting trials means there is really no clear pathway to a disease modifying drug, I think that will cause the pharam community to go away and have a think about what is next. While they are doing that I think you will see a significant reduction in new AD trials started and thus for 12 or 18 months a reduced market for potential new contracts in the AD space. On the other side of that, I think you will see a large expansion in the number of AD trials as pharma starts to trial there revised ideas/thinking.
The only Biogen link I know of relates to the Assessa PML program supporting the early detection of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. Pharmacovigilance is a very interesting area given where some of the new drugs and therapies are taking us ... IXI seems very well placed in this area, I also like the potential recurring nature of the revenues, it would sit very nicely with the more volatile trials earnings. If they can develop this area I think it would be hugely important to the multiple you could look to apply to Ixico.
Thanks TommyFlowers for posting info on Biogen and the link.
I do not know about any collaboration with Ixico and Biogen for AD, but I thought I had read somewhere that Ixico were, or had been in collaborating with Biogen iro MS since 2015. I noticed a latter commentator on Bloomberg stated that a large part of Biogen’s revenue comes from a drug called Spinraza (iro MS), which is getting old, and that a new company called Novartis would be presenting a new gene therapy treatment for Spinal Muscular Atrophy (pos Zolgensma) soon, and added that this might be a major competitor to Spinraza. Given Biogen’s major setback today and possible loss of expected future profits from that failure and resulting falling SP, as well as a possible downturn in their revenue from sales of Spinraza then I imagine if Ixico are still in collaboration with Biogen they might experience some fallout from today’s events, if not soon, later on. Hopefully, not too much.
I think we both agreed in previous posts that a consensus was developing that previous approaches to developing drugs that could tackle beta-amyloids was something that pharmas were moving away from. I assume Biogen’s trial had been going on for a while and was implemented before the current views about the lack of effectiveness of drugs trialled that could break-down amyloids plaques esp in elderly clients. However, notwithstanding today’s events I would have thought that in respect of AD trials and research that Ixico would not be much affected. Presumably, alternative ideas fro fiding cures for AD will continue but plaques and tangles will still be used as biomarkers to identify the presence and progression of AD. Therefore, would I be wrong in assuming that these proteins will continue to be used to identify suitable clients for trials and for monitoring purposes. In which case I assume that new trials would still benefit from Ixico’s data programs and mapping facilities. Is this assumption wrong?
This is bad news for the AD market in the near term. I don’t think IXI were on this trial although they do work with Biogen in MS, so probaly no direct revenue impact. There is going to be a lot of going back to the drawing board to find a disease modifying approach to AD.
www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-03-21/biogen-halts-study-of-alzheimer-s-treatment-as-study-falls-short
Smith999, you might want to read the Invesco RNS again.... the notice was for dipping below 13pct not going above it.
As well the other day expect we may move towards 40p this week
Big boys raising stakes expect more big boys coming in
Papillion .... Agree with everything you say .... I guess my only difference and it is a small one I grant you is that AD is undergoing a bit of a cyclical slow down, while pharma, as rightly point out< reconsider how to their approach the matter and that could lead to 12 or 18 months of reduced contract wins until things pick up again. As a counter to that it is important to note that AD is not "that" important to IXI and that in the new areas that they are moving in to, wearable's etc, they will be fantastically placed when that market picks up again. I think IXI has a very bright future. I do think there is a danger they get taken over for a "small price" and while if that happens we will see very good upside from here, we may not get to enjoy the full potential .... still not a bad problem to have.
If I am honest I am not sure what to make of the Kings announcement .... Obviously not a negative but I had kind of dismissed it as less important but with out really looking in to the details .... I will put it on my list of things to look at this weekend.
Thanks for the replies.
I agree TommyFlowers that trials have been pulled and results from other trials have in the main been disappointing, and that Ixico’s size and their reliance on a few large clients could make them vulnerable. However, their recent announcement of collaborating with Kings IRO the new Medical Imaging and AI centre, as well as the recent investments by 2 directors are for me encouraging. Especially, as some researchers are now suggesting that AD trials underpinned by assumptions of the role of amyloid-beta in AD, could be mistaken, and are instead now suggesting that there is a greater need for research to be undertaken to find out how and why memory loss happens, as well as research to develop better methods of prediction and prevention of AD through AI. Data Collection, Wearable devices, Mapping, Bio-Markers etc. In which case do these views not appear to bode well for Ixico and COG who are at the forefront of some of these technologies, esp given the potential demand both locally and internationally for these technologies which could be considerable? I waited until today to post because as I had hoped there might be some development announced from the Alzheimer’s Research UK Conference in Harrogate today that might have been posted on the web IRO AI etc. Alas so far, I haven’t been able to find anything specific.
Expect this will profitable this year
Papillon, I agree it all looks pretty good .... It is always refreshing to see management and board buying on market. I am prepared for some softness in the AD market and possibly even more cancellations to the extent that effects IXI is impossible for me to judge .... the danger is that given their size they are very reliant on a couple of large customers. Cambridge Cognition (AIM listed) and Cogstate (ASX listed) have both recently reported softness in new AD orders.
All of that said I think IXI is in a much stronger position and their niche is applicable in a lot more areas than just AD. 60% of the current market cap is cash, they are almost cash flow breakeven (though I would expect that to deteriorate again as they pursue growth). I think Guilio comes across very well and his strategy makes sense to me. As for Susan Lowther .... No idea at all, but I do not it can sometimes be very difficult in a smaller business when a new broom gets dropped in at the top and is mandated to make change.
So overall in complete agreement with you the one caveat is I am not expecting the SP to fly (would be nice if it did) but more perform strongly over an extended period.
I hope no-one minds me joining BB. I am very new to investing and am learning more every day. I have never posted to any BB before and don’t have a Twitter or FB a/c so please forgive me if I accidently break some etiquette for posting on here - This is all new to me. I am currently holding 45K+ shares and have been for a little while now.
Re the earlier post by oldtrader2 IRO Susan Lowther - I was concerned when Shares Magazine reported on 11/12/2018 that “Ixico said Tuesday that Susan Lowther had resigned from her position as CFO to pursue other business interests” from my research she now seems to have moved to Arecor Ltd, as their new CFO. She does not appear to have made a public statement about why she left, but perhaps a clue might be gleamed from her remark on her Linkedin a/c https://uk.linkedin.com/in/susanlowther about the book she enjoys reading entitled, “ Integrity is by far the most important asset of a leader“. This is complete speculation on my part.
Notwithstanding the above, I too like others on this BB have been impressed by the new contracts and contract extensions Ixico have secured, esp those over the last few months. I am also very encouraged by the latest Directors investments and the company has a strong FC position. Given all these events and the appointment of the new CFO I would not be surprised in the least if further news was just ‘round the corner that might see this SP fly.
Does anyone else feel the same?
Charles Spicer non executive director has bought 70125 Ixico @28.5 another reason to show the undervaluation of Ixico share price .Time to take notice
Director investing