The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks, Londoner. That's very helpful.
Re your list, I can only see you "missed" the MOST NEGLIGIBLE Carnoustie field (41.03%) which produced some 10-20 bbl/d until 08/2023 and of course does not explain anything.
I too was struggling to find an explanation to the mismatch between NSTA's data and Ithaca's. I once thought it might be connected to production in appraisal wells (such as Isabella, or Jade's new well before completion) which are not part of NSTA's data. But this fails to explain the 5% mismatch. Maybe selling stock explains something, but then it can't be three quarters in a row. So I really don't have an answer.
Thanks again for the important info.
I meant to add (from memory) that the Pierce FPSO had a mooring issue, which is expected to be sorted this half year.
Performance at Captain, following the polymer work, is key to Ithaca's near term performance. This is from the latest update:
Captain Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Phase II project now ~80% complete,
supporting first Phase II polymer injection into the subsea wells in H1 2024, with
the following activities completed in the quarter:
Drilling: Completed drilling operations of all three Area E polymer injection wells
and the commencement of drilling operations in Area D
Subsea: Completed laying and trenching operations of all flowlines and umbilicals
Facilities: Turnaround successfully completed including facilities upgrades in
support of EOR II project
Tornado10, good to know I'm not the only saddo looking at this stuff ;-)
I download the csv file and sort it in Excel.
I've done a similar exercise to yours, working the numbers for each quarter, but come up c5% short of Ithaca reported numbers (Q1,Q2 & Q3).
My Q4 sum is 63.1K boepd, which I correct to 66K boepd, for Q4 EBITDAX $371m.
I suspect I'm missing non-operated fields. Can you add to my list?
(The % is working interest rounding number. I have the precise number in my work sheet.)
Abigail ITH 100%
Alba ITH 37%
Alder ITH 74%
Arbroath REP 41%
Arkwright REP 41%
Brechin REP 41%
Britania HBR 32%
Brodgar HBR 6%
Callanish HBR 17%
Captain ITH 85%
Cayley REP 41%
Columba BD CNR 6%
Columba E CNR 20%
Cook ITH 61%
Elgin Total 6%
Enochdhu HBR 50%
Erskine ITH 50%
Franklin Total 6%
Godwin REP 41%
Harrier ITH 100%
Jade HBR 26%
Mariner EQUIN 9%
Montrose REP 41%
Pierce BP 7%
Schiehallion BP 12%
Shaw REP 41%
Stella ITH 100%
Vorlich ITH 34%
Wood REP 41%
Based on NSTA open data source:
https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/ba8b7b78d3a74edc88293011981ce2d7_0/explore?showTable=true
Oct 23: 58.2K BOE/d (35.2K oil, 23K gas)
Nov 23: 67.9K BOE/d (44.4K oil, 23.5K gas)
Dec 23: 65.7K BOE/d (42.3K oil, 23.4K gas)
Q4: 62K BOE/d (40.6K oil, 21.4K gas)
Pierce field did not produce the whole quarter. There seems to be a problem there.. Captain produced small amounts in October but returned to full production in Nov-Dec.
(There could be an error there, but that's my evaluation based on thar NSTA data)
I´m also sorry, kinda liked this guy...
Anything known? Delek Owner billionaire joined the board (Itzhak Tshuva) in the course of last. Delek might be disappointed by the development around Cambo and Rosebank (especially Cambo since 100% in ITH/Deleks ownership now).
So maybe shareholders opted against Alan...
Obviously they can´t be too satisfied by the aquisition of Siccar Point in retro perspective and developments since then, but it´s mainly the EPL effects rather than the management in my opinion (of course the public doesn´t have any detailed insights).
Hi,
Delek is my biggest single holding and the reason how I came to ITH. Delek used to have major problems with bondholders in 2020 when the corona oil-drop happened. In the aftermath they worked hard on improving credit rating, in order to meet set guidelines as a basis for i.e. dividend payment which Delek recently resumed.
As part of their aim to improve credit rating they decided to IPO ITH and sell just a minority stake (hence Delek wanted to remain in full control since they strongly believe in ITH in my opinion - of course EPL hitted hard and they didn´t expect). Thus one of their major assets (ITH and NewMed Energy where an IPO failed due to complex partnership structure and merger with Capricorn also failed due to shareholder activism) now is much more liquid given the successful ITH-IPO.
No need to wait.
There is substantial detail on individual field metrics in the Delek Group financial statements. These statements are released the same day as the Ithaca updates. Obviously, one of the perks of being a controlling shareholder is access to the detail. Perhaps these will appear in future Ithaca updates, but good to have a back-up source on Delek's website..
I'm sorry to see Alan Bruce leaving.
In calls I've felt Ithaca management have been more open and responsive to questions than I've seen with other companies.
On the recent call I picked up comment on the publication of detail on fields with the next results. I interpret that as a reveal on metrics beyond simply the production numbers. I hope that initiative hasn't left with Alan Bruce.
We'll soon find out.
Good afternoon, I was wondering does anyone know why delek listed such a small block of stock at ipo, what was the purpose? They could only have netted 250m or less?
I'm slightly baffled, interesting company of course
Thanks
Viewpoint: UK offshore faces crucial year
The coming year looks set to be a crunch one for the UK offshore industry, with ongoing discontent about the country's windfall tax on oil and gas profits.
And while the ruling Conservative government has moved to bolster investment in the UK' offshore and to partially offset the effect of its Energy Profits Levy windfall tax, a general election is due that threatens long-lasting consequences for the sector's future.
The government in November committed to holding yearly licensing rounds in an effort, it said, to support economic growth and protect the UK from volatility in international markets. But the opposition Labour Party has said that, if it forms the next government, it will end new North Sea oil and gas exploration. Meanwhile, oil and gas discoveries not yet approved for development are also at risk.
One of these is the controversial 170mn bl of oil equivalent (boe) Cambo oil field, which analysts at investment bank Stifel estimates its operator Ithaca Energy has until summer 2024 to get a final investment decision through. Ithaca "probably has the balance sheet to go it alone" at Cambo, Stifel said, but the independent's management insists it needs a partner to join the project before sanctioning it. An imminent election, which polls show carries a high probability of a change in government, means Ithaca will find it difficult to sign up a partner.
"It's unlikely to happen, at least ahead of some kind of political clarity because you have no idea… whether the development will be approved and, if so, what the tax rate is going to be on the asset," Stifel told Argus.
Ithaca, which already warned that its production in 2024 will be lower than that for 2023 because of the effect of the Energy Profits Levy on its projects, could decide to find an alternative home for the $1.4bn in capital it has allocated to Cambo, Stifel said. The bank suggests an acquisition in the US Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Canada or west Africa might be an option for the company, which is wholly focused on the UK offshore.
Harbour Energy, the UK's biggest producer, bought Wintershall Dea's entire upstream portfolio in the last days of 2023 in a mammoth $11.2bn deal that takes its production up to around 500,000 boe from 190,000 boe.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2522606-viewpoint-uk-offshore-faces-crucial-year?amp=1
Correction - $250m.
On a deeper dive into Waldorf assets I see they have substantial holding in the NS including a 40% holding in Catcher, 25.7% in Alba and 50% holding in Enquest operated Scolty - Crathes, and 5 other fields.
A mixed bag and possibly a good deal to be made on a job-lot basis. But that's as far as I'm digging.
The cards are in the air, let's see where they fall.
Waldorf has concluded contingent payment terms with CNE on it's 2021 acquisition of interests in Kraken and Catcher, clearing the decks for onward sale.
To whom?
I don't think ENQ would be looking for 100% of Kraken.
HBR might be in the frame for an additional 20% of Catcher on top of their current 50%.
Many players out there but my interest is in Ithaca as a possible acquirer.
My rough numbers, c. 13K boepd in 2023, c. 11.5K boepd in 2024.
At $60 netback, CT on Catcher, EPL on both, I have c. $100m FCF for 2024. Worth $250?
Rough numbers but interesting.
North Sea firms hand back swathes of licences to NSTA regulator
Almost 57% of licence awards from the 32nd round three years ago have now been handed back.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/542986/north-sea-licences-relinquished/#:~:text=Almost%2057%25%20of%20licence%20awards
Https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/12/oil-price-san-leon-reabold-sound-ithaca-and-finally/
Good to read this final paragraph:
“All systems go for Ithaca at Cambo now and it makes it possible for the company to control its own destiny. Ithaca has the critical mass to remain one of the leading players in the industry going forward and with its commitment to paying out a huge amount to shareholders it comes with a 20+ % yield, what’s not to like?”
Be helpful if the markets took notice!
Hoping there is something within the update to shift the share price….. it seems to need a bit of a nudge…..
Https://www.investis-live.com/ithaca-energy/654a5da9464d140d008d31a0/mfdo
ITHACA ENERGY ANNOUNCES SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF ACQUISITION OF REMAINING STAKE IN THE FOTLA DISCOVERY AND THREE EXPLORATION LICENSES
Completion of acquisition of remaining stake in the Fotla Discovery
Ithaca Energy (LON: ITH) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its acquisition of the remaining 40% stake in the Fotla Discovery and three exploration licences (P.213 Area C, P.345 Area A and P.2536), previously announced on 12 July 2023, from Spirit Energy. The acquisition brings the Group's working interest in the Fotla Discovery to 100%.
The Fotla Discovery, operated by Ithaca Energy, is located in Block 22/1b of the UK North Sea in 431 ft of water, approximately 10 km southwest of the Ithaca Energy operated Alba field. The field was discovered in August 2021 by the Group's drilling of the 22/1b-12 well and subsequently appraised by two side-tracks. As previously stated, development plans are currently being evaluated, with first production from the Fotla Discovery targeted in 2026. The conceptual field development plan consists of a subsea tieback to existing infrastructure.
Alan Bruce, Chief Executive Officer, Ithaca Energy, commented: "We are delighted to announce the completion of this acquisition which provides Ithaca Energy with full control over the pre-final investment decision work programme and timing of project sanction. The deal strengthens our high-quality development portfolio and demonstrates further delivery of our clearly articulated strategy."
So now we know why the bounce yesterday
“ LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Britain's oil and gas regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), on Monday awarded 27 new hydrocarbon exploration licenses, even as climate activists criticise the government for allowing fresh drilling.
Among the successful bidders to drill for new oil and gas in the British North Sea are Shell (SHEL.L) - with the most licenses, Equinor (EQNR.OL), DNO (DNO.OL) , Aker BP (AKRBP.OL), Ithaca (ITH.L), TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and BP (BP.L).“
Things are looking up !
What did I miss…. anything incoming news wise?
As contrary as it sounds, it’s nice to be blue on a Monday morning !
Bloomberg
Cambo Oil Field Revival Hinges on UK Fiscal Review, Ithaca Says:
Company seeks more stability on North Sea investment
Rosebank oil and gas field just received government approval
Ithaca Energy Plc is awaiting the outcome of a fiscal review in the UK before committing to the development of the controversial Cambo oil field in the North Sea.
“We would like to move ahead if the environment is supportive,” Ithaca Chairman Gilad Myerson said in an interview. “More than anything we need stability and we need conviction that the fiscal environment will be a long-term one, and that it will last for at least the lifecycle of a project.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-29/cambo-oil-field-revival-hinges-on-uk-fiscal-review-ithaca-says?leadSource=uverify%20wall