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Hi guys just sold out at 18.62 for £5500. Looking for a decent entry point now to double up.
A decent entry point? On this share? Good look trying to work that out
Meta try, but I’ve just lost 65k so need to recoup it somewhere and quick as possibl. This is very volotile so may help?
I get that, but looking for a decent entry point on a share that in
3 days has gone from 9p to 25p down to 16p, back to 22p then down to 17p. The other day it was down 11% at breakfast, up 10% at lunch down 5% at tea and up 50% on the day.
There is no support, no resistance, no moving averages, nothing to assist even the most experienced analyst in picking the right entry point.
Your forget something Meta. It's in a long term downtrend too...
There is no support, no resistance, no moving averages, nothing to assist even the most experienced analyst in picking the right entry point.
Further every Coltrane and Emerald continue arguing over this, the less there is to save. Every day they deliberate is another day Clients aren't giving them work and another day where sub-contractors will be demanding improved credit terms.
Net debt end Dec £630m, net debt today £730m. All their credit lines drawn. The two of them need to sort it out.
CC- I guess you read that bit about reputational damage and the possibility of loss of confidence in clients and the supply chain as well then? I agree, the arguing is a nightmare. What way will this go? To be honest, the situation is now so dire that I think the balance of likelihood is that IRV will either go into a Mouchel style pre pack administration, or Carillion style liquidation. The de-leveraging plan is so bonkers that even though the board recommend it to be in shareholders interest to get it through (well, sort of), I can see shareholders voting against it, just for the sheer hell of it. The lack of confidence within the supply chain coupled with a number of contracts requiring the company to operate as a listed company make administration less likely. Nobody wants it, but Carillion style liquidation is a more likely outcome. Imho. Oh and to the reply "but nobody wants that scenario", I can only remind people that nobody wanted the Carillion outcome. But that is what they got.
Mera84- but you forgot to add it was only months after Carillion went bust that they realised the extent of the damage. No one wants a repeat of it, so all pressure will be to reach a satisfactory resolution. If Coltrane issue a binding proposal then thinks will pickup, otherwise it’s prepack but certainly not liquidation.
Literally 20 minutes after I write here:
"to the reply "but nobody wants that scenario", I can only remind people that nobody wanted the Carillion outcome. But that is what they got."
I get a reply
". No one wants a repeat of it, so all pressure will be to reach a satisfactory resolution"
Please dont make me repeat myself!
Meta- Maybe go join a board where you’re actually invested rather than come and talk nonsense in here.youmust be so bored or obsessed with IRV that you continually plague the board, but have no position.
Yes no one wanted that position with Carillion, but did anyone foresee the damage it would cause in the future? Answer is no they didn’t , suppliers went bust, taxpayers forked out a fortune, banks lost millions along with all the rest.
Now the govt and banks have witnessed what a liquidation will do, no one will want a repeat unless everyone is looking to loose s few hundred million.
Ok, put your trust in the competence of the government and the mercy of the banks then.
There's another item to add to the mix here. From what I've read the lenders aren't all in alignment. It's not hard to see why. There are about five lenders which range from RBS who will be very concerned about computational damage to Emerald and Kempner who won't care.
Please don't forget that IRV is losing money. £245m in 2017, reducing to £110m in 2018. £110m is a huge number compared with £2,900m turnover and the £110m was after around £60m (look it up) one off benefit from the pension scheme.
£160m cash was put in in April 2018 to save the company and now depending on which scheme you look at, they are going to get another £75-110m. Who is going to keep giving them cash if they make losses year after year? of course we can debate whether the exceptional costs are really exceptional costs and whether they will cease or not. Sure, some of them will, but they seem to be becoming the norm and if you read the deleveraging plan you will see there remains considerable risk there will be further exceptional's. Sure, some of these risks will not occur but to suggest none of them will would be foolish.
So, where do we go from here. The Coltrane plan leaves the company with a cash injection and reduced interest such that EBITDA is capable of paying off the debt. It looks do-able to me, but is reliant on the bond-holders agreeing to it and why should they, they have their own objectives. The bondholder plan looks do-able too and certainly there would advantages of taking it private (which it appears there is conflict between the bond-holders on). Taking it private would remove the scrutiny and reduce some of these crazy adviser costs to nearly zero, producing significantly more cash to pay off the debt. I suspect the bond-holders would bleed IRV dry though, wind down construction over time, sell everything they can except RMDK. It won't the same IRV in 5 years time, maybe half the size it is now. Not very nice for the employees but at least they will have time to decide what they want to do.
So, the question remains. The Coltrane plan isn't a plan unless the bondholders agree to write off their debt and Coltrane cannot make them only suggest it to them. If you take the view that Emerald and Kempner's objective is gain total control of IRV, Coltrane's offer is of no interest to them.
Then the second question becomes, is the pre-pack a real option and I am not skilled enough to comment. It looks fraught will legal challenge to me, but I'm sure the bond-holders have done their research.
In the end game here the bondholders appear to hold most of the cards. Doesn't look pretty for shareholders even if Coltrane do secure a better deal as however you look at it IRV is losing money year on year.
Meta- wasn’t having a go at you mate you make a decent contribution at timesn, but you do come out with total rubbish st times.
And no I’m not putting my faith and banks and govt, if I was I wouldn’t have cashed out at a such a big loss.