Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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According to the Telegraph fusion energy may be closer than everyone thinks, maybe even before the end of the 2020’s. The UK is apparently leading the race to produce limitless energy from fusion with 2 main start-up companies - First Light and Tokomak Energy. IP Group owns 27.5% of First Light!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/13/nuclear-fusion-energy-britain-grid-sooner-than-you-think/
Dunno what went on there JWBellamy,but an holdings rns must be due now.
i can remember when baron,was a poster on hawk,about 12 years,when he was a poster,on lse.
Yeah just saw @baroninvestment tweet about that also
Second highest volume day in history. Must be something brewing, that’s wild.
85 million atm?
Realeased out of trading hours ….. I always think it’s cowardly when companies time their releases thus……
Today's share buy-back announcement looks like a typical investment trust strategy to scenarios where the SP falls significantly below the underlying NAV.
Like many, I've been worried as to how realistic the declared NAV for IPO is in reality. So, I am pleased with today's announcement because it shows confidence from management on the realistic setting of the NAV - if it really is 1.26 per share, why would you NOT buy back shares at 50p, particularly when you have gross cash of £235M and have made cash realisations of £38M?
My view is that, as interest rates fall over the next year or so, the NAV should naturally rise (ignoring the impacts of value inflection events at investee companies) and the gap between it and the SP narrow.
I don't tend to put large amounts of money into riskier stocks such as IPO, so I probably won't top up, but I will certainly maintain my holding until it's at least north of £1.00 a share.
NAV at H1 was 126pps.
A significant buy back makes very good sense.
IPO wasted money on that waffle.
Just watching the excruciating ESG presentation live.
One reassurance is that Greg Smith is visibly appalled by the rambling virtue-waffle.
Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jazz-global-licensing-deal-swings-ip-group-shares-rjnt0dmn8
This is good news….. it’s been so quiet recently that I was wondering if anything was lurking in the background.
Market is valuing the firm on the potential future cashflows of all the companies it's invested in. Currently most of them are burning capital and discounting their potential future cashflows at the current rates means relative value has shrunk drastically. Essentially IPO is a bet on innovation and science, markets prefer certainty :)
Most of the ventures seem private firms. If they wanted to sell ONT they would not get 200p. They would likely have to accept below that price. 180p or less? Unless ONT suddenly showed it was worth several billion. For a 1.7bn firm it's turning over less than 86m in H1 with a 70m loss. 10% of ONT is about 170m. Meaning the other investments worth about 300m here. Market is valuing firm at it's cash and cash equivalent, value.
Price is a function of liquidity, not value
ONT near 200p. Even IPO seem to be reducing at 200p or so.
Mirriad advertising 5 years ago was close to 63p. Now 1-2p.
Where is IPO's main star for the future now? 60p was supposed to be bargain level? Where is the floor here? 40-44p? Maybe the directors know something the market don't.
The SAYE price looks about right. They are normally set at a discount to SP on the determination date, which is normally about 3 months prior to first start date. If you take 20% off the SP around that time you get the 49p strike price
Getting there! Anyone have any thoughts if IPO is even possible as a takeover target? These levels seem pretty good...
Quite a difference in the SAYE price and the share price as per RNS.
Alot of great content to absorb but the summary position is:
1. On a constant currency basis, and considering ONT which post period has largely recovered its price point then H1 has stabilised the NAV. The "loss" of 10p/NAV share is more like 2p once you factor this in.
2. The discount to NAV remains substantial and based on what risk on unrealised loss exactly?
3. In fact a very interesting chart is the Portfolio funding position where 57% of the value of the market cap (33% of the portfolio) is already trading profitably
4. Another interesting fact is if you take the market cap (£622m) and deduct a/ cash b/ listed holdings c/ those who've had a fundraising event within 12 months then that's 82.3% of the portfolio. So of the remainder (that's £690.6m worth of investments) 86.3% could be WORTHLESS and the NAV would STILL cover today's market cap.
In other words IPO is cheap.
But is it a buy just because it's cheap?
Greg Smith explains why there's more to it than cheap: "The opportunity for value creation in our portfolio remains compelling. Double-digit revenue growth in our largest deeptech and healthcare companies is evidence of continued strong demand for their products and services. Our therapeutics portfolio includes twelve companies with products in clinical trials, seven of which are targeting key inflection points in the next 18 months. Breakthrough cleantech businesses, such as Hysata, have delivered technical milestones and commercial demand. The Group is well-positioned to support these businesses and deliver strong, impactful returns for all stakeholders over time."
GLA
Good to see Oxford Nanopore up 12 per cent today on solid trading figures. I rarely look in on IP. and had forgotten we still seem to own 10 per cent of ONT. A bit more jam today for them has to be good for us - that's the reason for being here.
As a holder of both IX and IPO, today's news of a £10m upround with BP participating caused IX to rise by 110% (settling at +90% at close). The announcement caused the NAV to more than double (so even at a +90% share price its discount to NAV this evening is greater than it was 24 hours away before its announcement. The types of holdings in IX are not dissimilar to the decarbonisation holdings here (e.g. Oxccu/Hysata). In fact I've just checked and there was an A series round 1 month ago for Sustainable Aviation Fuel with participation by ENI! See: https://www.ipgroupplc.com/news-and-events/portfolio-news/2023/2023-06-07
It's tangible proof of the hidden value due to the US's IRA (inflation reduction act) creating vast opportunities for decarbonisation opps like IPO's OXCCU or Hysata, where the EU and other countries are copying the US to drive up incentives.
This should be incredibly positive for IP Group!
Chart position, break, of sp, above previous day high. Positive divergence on macd() indicator and Relative strength indicator (RSI). Separating Bollinger bands, indicate a fast sp, movement. The medium term down trendline is at 60, so that could be viewed as a price target, although price is overdue to break the trendline upwards. Profit taking might be considered when the upper Bollinger band begins to stop rising.
True, this is not a quick one. But, the we'd love to see movement upwards (be it slow) rather than downwards.
Agricore; totally agree with your post. If you want a quick buck, this isn't it, but long term there is immense value here.
When RPS reduce their shareholding materially, then I'll take notice/concern. They don't invest to flip for a margin, they invest for the longer turn, for sustained growth, and their record in this regard is exemplary. I like them, am sitting on a chunky SP loss. Despite this, I like them, haven't sold a single share. Patience will out here.