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!. As things stand Vitol SA has binding offtake agreement for the whole capacity of the project. But if the project is not completed that agreement is meaningless and it will not have cost Vitol anything. One reason why serious investors are deterred.
2. The important outstanding details relate to the Equity and Debt funding. That is what will encourage serious investors.The FID has been promised for the end of the year. That is totally dependent upon the Equity and Debt funding.
All other considerations are meaningless but there are other considerations which are being used to muddy the waters:
A). The Marine Licence. JW has already made it clear that the project will be well within the Daera parameters and the licence will not be needed for at least two years. Meanwhile the project can continue.
B). The outstanding EU grant. It will be paid no matter what the Brexit outcome. It is only an administrative detail. Like the Marine Licence it is just a current red herring.
More interesting just now is the SP. It has suffered a 60% fall in the year to date.. From the beginning of the year it has been mercilessly manipulated and some of the manipulators made quite a killing. They are still about and probably still active on their private Twitter accounts . Likely they will make one more attempt to reduce the SP still further before they decide to return to INFA. They know that it's as good as money in the bank but they feel time is on their side for a bit longer. Soon , I think! I won't bother to dwell upon the flipping of the last placement. A likely tale though!
3. The FSRU would have been much better left until after the Islandmagee project was underway. Again it has given the market an equivocal feeling. The excellent JW would also do well to stay away from interviews restating what we already know. They engender a suggestion of desperation which should not be company to such a fine project. Let's have the solid good news by RNS, JW.
I'm well invested here and I stay because I believe in the worth of the project and I believe I will profit from that belief. But I'm not naive.
Welcome back crl123 , plus ca change...... !
A very good update and I fully agree with the content.
The important point is indeed financing the project and how much Infa is left with, dependant of course on their negotiating skills. Remember Infa are dealing with the big boy's here and the big boy's tend to dictate the terms and timelines, also banks may be involved!
The rest of the noise is just that, noise, all are issues that will be sorted including the new Chairman. The fact that some here keep referring to the so called protesters is in my opinion to cause doubt! these projects always attract protestors no matter where they are, my advice is ignore.
Mr T
Great post Setanta, as ever.
If the FSRU project is viable Infa need to have funding in place for the end of the 3 months exclusivity period in September. It appears Vitol have requested Infa pursue this, so could be fully funded by them. September/October is when we are likely to get an update on the EU money along with Debt/Equity. I think Vitol are part of the discussions, particularly as one potential investor wants to absorb the Debt and Equity.
I agree the Marine Licence is just noise and DAERA seem to have challenged some of the protestors claims at the meeting Infa hosted with them.
I’m less sure on how the manipulations work and it will be interesting if anything significantly changes when SiC step down. Does anyone know the timeframe for this?
Interesting times ahead.
Brilliant..as always,Setanta .....JW and team are caught between a rock and a cliff edge.Nothing is going to change til Equity/Debt is sorted and announced to be so.There are loads of LTH's who are suffering a loss at this time but who believe in the project ..Just like good old SXX ( no that's not a reference to what we get up to later on ? and we should be so lucky ?) but to Sirius on N. Yorks Moors and their wonderful but costly Potash mine project whose SP is well down at present ...BUT the product is pre-sold in bulk ....a bit like ours will be !!