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Morning All,
I think INFA is at a crossroad. My gut feeling is we must be dangerously close to being insolvent. The blunt reality is there is nowhere near enough work going through the facilities as must be needed to even stand still, let alone invest for the future, service capital payments and generate profit.
A CR at this stage would be catastrophic, but unless there is some serious news pronto, I can't see that we would have enough to keep the lights on.
I do note the recruitment activities, but we're talking a handful of people, so just cannot read too much into this. It's just such an insignificant number of people for what a company with the footprint of INFA should need to even maintain a low throughput of work, its almost embarrassing.
The PR department does seem to have ramped up their work which is good to see, but there still isn't a huge amount of 'real' news, more drip feed to just keep an active presence.
Clearly the market puts about £0 value on INFA at the moment which is a worrying, but telling sign. Given the SP is now barely above 50% of the last CR, I can't even see a situation that they would be able to successfully complete a CR in any event.
I'd say this is a hugely important month or two- if there isn't significant news I am probably going to bale out as I have an increasing feeling that it could head towards insolvency.
I know there is lots of potential for INFA which is why I'm in, but these are my honest thoughts- and welcome good, bad or indifferent varying views!
Cheers
TheEast
Hi TheEast - I do not share your negative thoughts.I have worked as an interim FC in an AIM company that was pre-admiistration & one thing you do not do is advertise for staff. In addition H&W would not be able to be invited to a MOD contract if its finances were not thought to be sound.I could go on but talking about 'going bust' is far off the mark !!!!
TheEast ref 09.15 post I do not believe that INFA is close to being insolvent at the last set o accounts INFA had net assets. From what I have read INFA appears to have two problems the first is that it may be being too picky over what work it will take on. If all facilities were working at full stretch I could see the reason for that. However, in the current circumstances the BoD needs to consider adjusting the criteria for taking on work as if you say No to often people will stop asking. The perception I am getting is that ship repair work is down on last year. The second issue is that while Social Marketing has a place the markets take more notice of an RNS. I am inclined to the view that more information to the markets on contracts is needed.
Hi Chris,
Appreciate the thoughts.
My view is that we absolutely cannot be suitable to bid for MOD contracts 'as-is'- what is unusual for us is that it is so highly politicised and would be seen as a big win for the Govt to get a ship out of Belfast, so a creative solution could be found. I emphasise could, as I can't immediately see a way this can be done. We have so little cash, I doubt we could even order a mast for a ship, let alone the huge amount of upfront capital that would be needed in equipment, materials and staff.
The advertising for staff could be as much as a 'we need to keep the public face of the company rosy', and a hoping for the best that some larger contracts start to land.
Stokey, I doubt very much we're being picky, more not winning work that is commercially viable. To be fair, the market knows better than we all do what is actually happening- RNS worthy news does have to be RNS worth, not just winning what are very normal contracts. Things really are desperate if an RNS was issued for winning standard work, and would make us look like a tin pot outfit.
With regards to assets- I agree we do- at about the level of our MC, which for me shows as good as £0 value to the company itself. That's the worrying bit. What I doubt we have a lot of, is cold harsh cash- and that is where my solvency point is. The overheads for 3 large sites will be astronomical, especially whilst they are largely sitting idle.
I do hope I'm wrong on all this, but there are big worrying signs. I'm generally very positive, and I genuinely hope INFA pull this off, not just for my investment but also for UK plc and our industrial base. I just think the odds are increasingly stacked against us to do it.
Cheers
TheEaat
Hi The East - As I have been in an AIM listed company facing administration, there is a thing called 'reasonable expectations' that the company is a 'Going Concern' to allow continuing trading & that as the minimum would be INFA's position. Unless you know the exact financial position of INFA best not to speculate.I do however agree that at the present rate of activity the current position is a challenge.
Hi Chris,
Absolutely, and acknowledge that. I guess it is a fine line between expected or forecast contract wins and cashflow vs actual wins and cashflow. I can imagine in our position that 1 or 2 expected contracts not landing could tip the company in either direction.
I obviously do not know the companies financial position, but I think its a reasonable position to be in to be worried that it isn't great- and that the next few months could break us.
I'd also be interested to know about the Appledore payment- this should be RNS'd, so interested to know what's happening here
Hi The East. I totally understand your concerns and agree with a lot of them. The cash burn for the various sites would really hurt the ongoing Infa bank balance.
The dry docks in Belfast haven't seen the level of activity I believe is necessary to even break even in their own right over the last 4 to 5 months, Appledore being exactly the same. This situation of empty docks (a lot of the time) isn't a good one and can't be sustained in the longer term going forward !
With my above paragraph it's own right and with no other factors taken into account, I would have quite some concerns over the lights being kept on for too much longer. There is a 'however', however !
The 'however' i feel is the Saipem contract. This is a 26M contract, with monthly payments to Infa and where Saipem are responsible for supplying the steel for the contract. That's a massive btw for Infa not having that capital expenditure for the steel and probably the main reason Saipem needed the capital bond security (4M I think i remember it being, altho i could be wrong in this amount) . These monthly payments and with no capital outlay for the steel is a great contract to have.
I feel the ongoing monthly incomes from this contract will fund the batteries to keep the Infa torch lit until something to take the company profitable comes in.
Will this Saipem contract on it's own be enough to have the company in an overall 12 monthly profit. My thoughts ! Not a chance !
Was this Saipem contract needed to keep the company operating while waiting for the biggies. Most definitely it was !
To summarize. I'm not concerned at all for now about possible insolvency of Infrastrata, but I'm not naïve either, we need to hit a few biggies to get to profitability. Saipem should keep the meter topped in the meantime to keep us going, and i believe there are enough bats being swung in the meantime that we might hit a few renewable 4's or even hit maybe a 6 (or two) with some MOD work.
Just my own on thoughts and hunches.
ThisTimeNextYeer ref 15.54 post I agree with everything you say and would only add that there is the £43m follow on Saipem contract which is due next year that would also help things ticking over.
Stokey. If Infa can deliver on the existing Saipem contract (and i don't see any reason why they won't), then i would definitely feel we're in a very very strong position for a follow on contract from Saipem. If we've delivered on this 1st Saipem contract, they may also not require the capital security, or the level of capital security that they did on this first 26M contract.
I won't be happy though Stokey (and i don't believe the share price will be happy either) if we don't win a biggie or even biggish contract in these 4 months before year end.
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/naval-warfare/Refreshed-UK-shipbuilding-strategy/
This August article says the details of the UK Shipbuilding strategy will be released after the Autumn statement.