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Demand for new vehicles remained strong in Australia with industry growth of 7% in the third quarter. Otherwise trading conditions remained challenging at its Russia and Emerging Markets segment, with competitive pressure on new car margin. "Given our revenue, operating profit and cash performance in the first nine months of the year, we are well positioned to deliver a robust financial performance in 2012," the group said in a statement.
Extract form a large broker note from Deutsche Bank refering to stocks to watch 2013........ Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe Periodical European Daily Focus Tuesday, 4th December 2012 European Equity Strategy 2013 Outlook: Pro Cyclicals Companies Mentioned Telecom Italia (TLIT.MI),EUR0.7 Buy Price Target EUR1.24 Intesa SanPaolo (ISP.MI),EUR1.31 Buy Price Target EUR1.6 AXA (AXAF.PA),EUR12.67 Buy Price Target EUR14.3 Adecco (ADEN.VX),CHF45.82 Buy Price Target CHF54 JCDecaux (JCDX.PA),EUR17.35 Buy Price Target EUR25 Hunting (HTG.L),GBp806.5 Buy Price Target GBp1050 BASF (BASFn.DE),EUR69.47 Buy Price Target EUR76 SKF (SKFb.ST),SEK159.2 Buy Price Target SEK165 Saint Gobain (SGOB.PA),EUR30.68 Buy Price Target EUR33.5 Inchcape (INCH.L),GBp429.1 Buy Price Target GBp480 We are positive on the outlook for equities due to an expected rebound in global growth to 3.5% in 2013, led by US growth of 2.5%. In the euro area we expect the pace of deleveraging to slow, the credit impulse to rebound, and demand to surprise positively in H1 2013. We expect the stronger GDP growth to improve the fiscal outlook, and for euro area CDS spreads to tighten. Three factors that could cause the cycle to turn are 1) an easing in balance sheet pressures related to the 2011 stress test targets, 2) a slowing in the pace of destocking in the euro area, and 3) a pick-up in global growth. In 2012 US household spending was strong, particularly on durable goods and residential investment. If resolution of the fiscal cliff causes policy uncertainty to decline, we expect business capex growth to follow suit. In EM we expect growth to pick-up after 18 months of adjustment, and for the recovery to regain traction as credit growth stabilizes, led by China. We expect global growth of 3.5% to drive EPS growth of 6% for the Stoxx 600, and for the decline in euro area sovereign risks to cause the market to re-rate to 12.5x forward earnings. We expect the Stoxx 600 to rise to 315 by end-2013, and to 340 by end-2014. Against this backdrop we believe we should continue to buy cyclicals. The 18% outperformance of cyclicals relative to defensives since our 2012 outlook note could be just the appetizer. The global cyclicals will clearly benefit from a return to 3.5% global GDP growth and domestic cyclicals should re-rate on the back of a growth surprise in the Euroarea which might involve a recovery in both business capex and consumer spending. A recovery in capex should benefit the revenues of the receivers and enhance the growth outlook of the spenders. In the next leg of the cyclical rally we need to put away those ideas that capex is bad. We recommend overweights in banks, insurance, telecom, chemicals, media and construction, and underweights in food & beverages. We prefer value over growth and like the Italian market relative to the Swiss market. Our 2013 strategy picks are Telecom Italia, Intesa S
INCH Inchcape. Chart breakout and new 52 week high for INCH http://mycharts1.webs.com/Inchcape%208.JPG Looking for 500p SP going into the new year 2013.
UK Car Sales up again in November (2012) December 6, 2012 By Cars UK The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has revealed that new car sales grew again in the UK in November – up by 11.3 per cent. At some point, new car sales in the UK must surely start to ease as the economic pressure bite, but so far in 2012 we’ve had an inexorable rise in numbers. The latest figures for November show new car sales (well, to be precise, new car registrations – which include Pre-Reg cars) up by an impressive 11.3 per cent, following on from a rise of 12.1 per cent in October, with private buyers driving sales rather than fleet. It also looks like Ford has been pushing the new Focus hard (or they’ve finally got supply up to speed) as the Ford Focus grabbed the top sales spot for November, narrowly beating the Fiesta in to second place by just 12 sales. The rise and rise of the UK car market also sees the UK overtaking France as the second biggest new car market in Europe, behind Germany, as the Euro zone car markets contract as Europe’s economies are in an even bigger mess than the UK’s. Paul Everitt, SMMT boss, said: New car registrations rose 11.3% in November, positioning the UK new car market as the second largest in Europe. The upward trend has been driven by private retail customers. The outlook for 2013 remains challenging, but vehicle manufacturers and their dealers will continue to work hard to attract motorists to their showrooms and deliver outstanding value. The SMMT says the UK new car market has grown to 1,921,052 cars so far in 2012, up by 5.4 per cent on 2011. Top Selling Cars November 2012 1.Ford Focus 2.Ford Fiesta 3.Vauxhall Corsa 4.Volkswagen Golf 5.Vauxhall Astra 6.Nissan Qashqai 7.BMW 3 Series 8.BMW 1 Series 9.Mercedes C Class 10.MINI Read more: http://www.carsuk.net/uk-car-sales-up-again-in-november-2012/#ixzz2EI18KoES
11 Dec Inchcape PLC INCH UBS Buy 0.00 436.50 - 515.00 Initiates/Starts Starts coverage with a 515p SP TARGET.
The full note...... Consumer, Cyclical Inchcape (INCH.L) Catriona O'Grady...........+44-20-7567 2892 Analyst catriona.o-grady@ubs.com Alex Hugh, CFA.............. +44-20-7567 5816 Analyst alexander.hugh@ubs.com Price (07 Dec 2012)..............436p/US$6.98 12-month rating..... Prior: Not Rated => Buy 12m price target...........- => 515p/US$8.26 Market cap...................£2.02bn/US$3.23bn Full-Year EPS 2012E................................................ 39.00p 2013E................................................ 42.18p <b>Getting into gear Initiate coverage with a Buy rating and 515p price target Inchcape is a leading global automotive distributor and retailer. It operates in 26 markets</b>, carrying out distribution activities in 22 and retail in four. Inchcape holds a premium weighted brand portfolio with six brands accounting for 90% of profits. We estimate APAC/emerging m.arkets will generate 70% of FY 12 EBIT. Structural attractions set to continue Inchcape offers exposure to three areas of structural growth: 1) We expect an increase in car penetration in Inchcape’s emerging markets, where current rates are 26% below global averages; 2) We forecast further premiumisation with 79% growth in premium sales across Inchcape’s emerging markets by 2019E; 3) We have dissected Inchcape’s revenue streams and believe aftersales is the most defensive and highest margin activity. We see it growing to 19% o.f sales and 54% of gross profit by 2016 as emerging markets car parcs’ grow and mature. Singapore and the UK offer cyclical upside Some 35% of the Singaporean car parc is 6-8 years old and will likely be replaced in the next two to four years – in line with the 10-year Certificate of Entitlement (COE) cycle. We see a recovery in 2014 with 18% like-for-like (LFL) growth forecast for South Asia. We estimate a return to peak revenues for the UK gives 12% potential upside to group EBIT, although this is a m.edium-term story. Valuation: 515p price target based on a blend of PE, EV/EBIT and SOTP Inchcape trades on 10.4x 2013E PE and 6.9x EV/EBIT, both below 10-year averages of 11x and 7.4x, respectively. Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation implies a fair value of 526p. We calculate Inchcape delivers a 27% cross-cycle conversion ratio, attractive returns and is cash positive. We initiate with a Buy. - European Morning Meeting Highlights 11 December 2012 UBS