Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The CMA is only really concerned about the oil products business which ICAP and Tullet dominate. It's good business but not mainstream for either firm and if they have to I imagine they'll spin one if those out to a third party. The oil business is also a concern as it's contracted over the last 2-3 years but shows signs of rebuilding now. I don't expect CMA to block this merger but they may make it conditional. More concerning is the monthly volume numbers published by ICAP which are not moving upwards yet. I hope their cost-cutting is doing better! I'm still a long term holder of ICAP though. Bring on the merger and let's get a new business model going!
Fly-past of the wingmen: Andrew Findlay is moving from Halfords to EasyJet to fill the gap created when Chris Kennedy leaves for Arm, after Tim Score retires. Stuart Bridges is quitting Hiscox for ICAP because Iain Torrens joined TalkTalk when Steve Makin stepped down. None of the moves involves a numbers ninja becoming a Chief Executive. Ambitious finance Directors may frown at this. In the eyes of many in the City, their breed occupies a position on boards second only to the big Boss. Typically, the CEO and FD are a double act at presentations. The stats brain answers tricky numerical questions but avoids butting in when the Chief is expounding on strategy. The current outbreak of do-si-dos suggests a different theme is playing, with finance Directors as career wingmen. Their specialism is more transferable than operations management, allowing established names to skip between sectors. That reflects risk aversion among boards, according to Mark Freebairn of recruiter Odgers Berndtson. The criticism may apply to FDs too. Those round pegs may never win plaudits as inspirational leaders, but they are less likely to be fired by the board too
Is it fair value or a reassurance for share holders? Long term holder of this share.With recent downturn looking to top up. If it gets close to 350 might be tempted just for the div.
Rise of the robotrader: ICAP, the interdealer broker has been burnt more than once by the bad behaviour of some of its human traders. Just look at the fine it paid for manipulating Libor. No wonder its Founder and Chairman Michael Spencer is turning to robotraders to replace the flesh and blood armies that once animated trading rooms. Over the past five years the number of human brokers at ICAP has halved to fewer than 2,000. Nevertheless robots are no panacea. If automated systems are not policed well enough there is the chance that some clever rival robotrader might exploit trading patterns, just as with humans. Failures here can lead to reputational risk as Barclays discovered to its cost. And while robots may not want bonuses, technology requires constant investment. ICAP had to spend £29 million in the first half alone. Finally, an interdealer broker’s value lies in personal networks. Strip clubs aside, traders are good at bringing in new business. Such bonds could be harder to break than those between robot and client.
I agree BUT what do you think if the gaps it has made over the last few days ? You reckon it fills them before moving up ? Also what about the CFTC investigation into rate rigging , rumours were flying around that the fines could be huge based on the fine issued exactly 12 months ago for Yen libor rigging ?
Just gone long on IAP ICAP, lovely break through downtrend channel and coming off a recentish bottom. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx53B-NCYAAUsKn.jpg
Breaking out
This share chat is very quiet? I saw some strange share deal today with only 1 share being sold plus many small ones i.e. in the 10s. Can anyone explain why such behaviour?
i hope our the shareholders dividends are not to be cut to pay for this massive fine. let those responsible foot the bill. I for one will depart if they are cut.
What conclusions can be drawn from reports in the press of ICAP's (and others) skulduggery? This fact: that the only way to make money from this 'market' is to either cheat, or get lucky. Greed dictates preference of the former. This represents a terrible indictment of failed capitalism. The crash of 2008 was an opportunity to clear out a large swath of the corrupt system. Instead of bearing the brunt of this necessary and natural change, the monkeys running governments and central banks bailed out the failures in our society, the parasites and cheats. I think what is needed is another bigger meltdown to force change. Alas, people and society only learns the hard way.
out
little trading today that time of the year again holiday next week . i will let ICAP pay for it.
27-Mar-13 Canaccord Genuity Sell 300.00 300.00 Reiteration 27-Mar-13 Shore Capital Buy 0.00 0.00 Reiteration 25-Mar-13 Espirito Santo Execution Sell 270.00 270.00 Reiteration 11-Mar-13 UBS Sell 330.00 305.00 Downgrade 07-Mar-13 Espirito Santo Execution Sell 270.00 270.00 Reiteration
sorry but couldn't resist it,i had to take some, holiday soon i need spending money .
i love this £4 soon .
People have short memory as recent as April, The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, looking into possible price manipulation of interest rate swaps, has issued subpoenas to several Wall Street banks and ICAP PLC (IAP.LN), Bloomberg News reported Monday. The CFTC is seeking information from current and former brokers at ICAP's offices in Jersey City, N.J., and unspecified dealers over the setting of daily ISDAfix swap rates, Bloomberg reported. A spokeswoman for ICAP declined comment to Bloomberg and a spokesman for the CFTC said the agency doesn't comment on enforcement issues. Full story at: www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/cftc-said-to-probe-icap-treasure-island-brokers on-swap-prices.html
Icap was less than £3 few weeks ago, i bet the directors are very happy .
picking up shares in ICAP on the cheap .
they all saying sell but look at the price today ,i love it.
why the big drop recently and then today going from 280 to 292?
True, ICAP lacks a clear peer group from which to make valuation comparisons. But Espirito's sum-of-the parts estimate suggests that fair value is somewhere significantly south of the current share price. Add in the effect of a drawn-out Libor probe, capital concerns and weak trading, and that leaves the re-rating since November looking hard to sustain......but as always dyor and good luck.....
Yet the share price has jumped 25 per cent since mid-November and, based on estimates from broker Espirito Santo, looks pricey. Following half-year figures in November, the broker did a detailed calculation that suggested ICAP's shares were worth just 251p each. First it valued ICAP's telephone broking division on the same rating as shares in telephone broking specialist Tullett Prebon (TLPR). That produced a valuation of 452m. Espirito then assumed that weak volumes merited a nine times rating on ICAP's electronic broking arm, yielding a 617m divisional valuation. Finally, Espirito applied a 12 times rating to earnings of the post-trade services' unit - reflecting reasonable growth there - meaning a 713m divisional valuation. After deducting debt, that suggested fair value of 1.62bn, or 251p a share.
That's not the only reason to focus on ICAP's capital. It's also ready to roll out swap execution facility (SEF) services (essentially financial-market insurance contracts) in the US, but the capital requirements are still being hammered out with regulators. Broker Numis expects these regulations to require extra capital to support ICAP's SEF which, when added to the capital implications from a potential threat to the CRD waiver, may leave the attractive dividend payout in doubt. ICAP's trading is hardly impressive, either. Interdealer brokers thrive on volatility as that boosts trading volumes. But in today's comparatively calm conditions, ICAP is struggling. True, activity improved in January - electronic broking volumes rose 17 per cent year on year, helped by increased volumes in the US Treasury market. ICAP is also cutting costs and expects to make over �50m of savings in the current financial year. But third-quarter group revenue fell 13 per cent on the year and Numis Securities expects adjusted earnings for the year to end-March to fall 16 per cent.
ORD PRICE: 346p MARKET VALUE: 2.22bn TOUCH: 344-344.5p 12-MONTH HIGH: 432p LOW: 273p DIVIDEND YIELD: 6.6% PE RATIO: 10 NET ASSET VALUE: 166p NET DEBT: 14%
Certainly, ICAP isn't involved in the rate-setting, so a fine of the magnitude levied on the banks looks unlikely. But the fallout could go beyond a fine, with a possible effect on the so-called Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) waiver that ICAP has benefited from since 2007. Essentially, the waiver allows ICAP's regulated and non-regulated operations to be treated as one entity - allowing ICAP to set aside less capital than would otherwise be the case. "If the regulator decides that there is operational risk within ICAP it could call the CRD waiver into question," say analysts at broker Numis Securities. "A worst case scenario would be the removal of the CRD waiver before its maturity [in 2016] and if that happened it could mean a rights issue