Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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18p?? Think your having a laugh Duster. We've not drilled any dusters here infact the company is sitting on approx $78Billion worth of nickel and cobalt. You honestly think the board will let the assets go so cheaply ~ £350m??
Not a chance.
Look at the macros . . Inflation spiralling higher and higher with commodities now reaping the benefits. Nickel and cobalt prices have been in an upward trajectory for the past year and there's no reason to suspect that is going to slow down anytime soon.
The world is transitioning away from hydrocarbons to renewable solutions, one of which is electrification of transport. Basically batteries for EVs, the long range ones which require alot of nickel.
HZM have not spent the past decade accumulating and developing tier one nickel assets to let them go for a Woolworths liquidation sale price at this point in history.
Stage One Araguaia alone is $250m worth of nickel a year and that's just at todays prices.
Why would the BOD sell the company for less than its first 2 years nickel production?
Stage 2 will be double that.
Then double that again for Vermelho
The company will become a multi billion dollar nickel producer selling in excess of $1Bn wotht of nickel and cobalt per year.
It sounds like JM intends on getting HZM to that level over the next 5-10 years.
dusterinmong
Quite possibly but once funding is in the bag and construction on site at A1 has started the share price should start is slow trudge north. 30p by the 1st. Q next year, especially if the price of nickel keeps on climbing, is not out of the question.
TDT
30p lol
You would be looking at under 18p for any offer imho
Your dreaming if thinking otberwise
Reggie's post at 08.06 hrs. IMO hits the nail on the head.
The 18th. February fund raising RNS said:-
"The net proceeds of the Fundraise will be used to initiate specific early works and advance long-lead time items linked to the start of construction of the Company's Araguaia ferro-nickel project in Brazil........."
Apart from the award of the power line licence can anybody see anything else they've done that would fit the long-lead description in the February fund raise RNS? I would have thought in the three months since that fund raise they would have ordered something and that it would have been worthy of mention in the "Post Period Events" section of the quarter's results.
A 30p take-over price now or 60p to 90p in 2 to 3 years time once production at A1 starts, A2 is under construction and V secures funding. What would most on here prefer?
TDT
Probably wise to see the comment in the context of the section it's in which is "Going Concern".
Such statements really focus a boards mind to downsides and whether or not they have cash to keep going. So for a company at this stage of the mining life cycle not getting funding on time would have to be considered.
It could be Q3, as long as it is no later than. What we don't want is what we had last year which was 'all on track' except the financing was not to be in 2020 after all, not H1, not Q3, not even Q4. I think give the benefit of a few weeks, maybe a month or two, but they really need to be targetting closing this by say September absolute latest.
My concern with finance isn't that it won't get done but they need to do it while equity (and debt) markets are buoyant. Market sentiment is fickle. Correction could be around the corner any day, the djia has been going up in a nearly straight line for as long as I remember it. A correction doesn't matter when we're fully financed and building up but it matters when we are agreeing terms. Strike while the iron is hot - good equity markets, good nickel price, banks willing to lend etc. In my mind next few months (hopefully) doesn't see anything too wild in the markets and we get this over the line. GLA
I’m not sure people. I’ve been in this game for a long time.
The number of companies which reported delayes in results and accounting this year due to COVID and home working was plenty. So I wouldn’t be surprised we get pushed down to q3.
Doing deals on zoom is lot difficult than meeting up with a handshake. You lose the vibes, personal interaction and ofcourse business meals where these things are made.
As much I’m confident we will get the deal, the sheer number of parties involved and number of hoops to jump to get it is wholesome, so with that in mind, what the rns says at the bottom is truth. So expect delay. It shouldn’t matter if you here for the long term.
It is often the case that formal financial reports include some kind of "going concern" risk statement along the lines of "if the unexpected happens, can you keep going". This seems to be a bit like that - i.e. if delays do happen do you have the financial firepower to weather the storm or would you have to fold.
I do believe that a short delay may be possible - the webcast implied that end H1 was still viewed as an achievable target, but it wasn't nailed on.
I don't read anything into the comment.
It has been said many times on here if this doesn't get funded, nothing will.
As I’ve said a few times before, I believe in the BoD and the company, the assets are BOTH world class not just Vermelho. I also agree that C19 has caused unexpected and unavoidable delays to plans not just here at HZM but everywhere to be honest....but I’m just thinking that extract doesn’t sound as positive as JM was letting on last week.
I also watched the webcast and agree he had a very positive attitude and body language, so that just came as a surprise. I’m hoping this is just a statement which they forgot to take out haha
Guys it’s an exact copy and paste from the final results year end. It’s just a standard comment been used to cover themselves. Check out the final results and you’ll see it in there too.
imo a very significant statement
It might have been prepared up to 31 March but that’s only numbers - the narrative ought to be current. I posted before about COVID not impacting banks lending and was shot down. There is something else going on. The sheer size of the financing IMO. That’s why ACP will be a better bet
Any delays that have happened here have been out of Co hands and not because of incompetence, esp with Covid
The fact here is we have a very professional and competent management team here.
This is no cowboy AIM outfit, and I hope the Co looks to move to main market at some point.
I think most would expect a small delay past End H1, however JM was very positive in the presentation and certainly did not seem to be suggesting any major issues, I truely believe we will begin construction this year as we have an asset the world needs. Either that or a takeover which would be at substantially more than todays SP.
'Multiple components of the Araguaia project finance package reaching final stages'....
Also a main bullet point
Multiple components of the Araguaia project finance package reaching final stages.
Brisk - As I recall, JM said that their "aim" was to complete finance by end H1, but he laced his comment with caveats from which I concluded that he really knew it wouldn't happen on time.
I "aim" to win the lottery tonight, but there are certain factors outside of my control that may have a bearing on that..
Forgot to add - that line about delay doesn’t align with what JM said in the webcast last Friday as he made no mention of that when asked and said things still on target for H1.
If this report was prepared up to end of March, and the company’s previous advice was targeting finance completion end of H1, why would they include the below? I might be misunderstanding it but sounds like they’ve just said it will be delayed beyond June? Thoughts?
“Whilst the board considers that the effect of Covid-19 on the Group's financial results at this time is constrained to inefficiencies due to remote working, restrictions on travel and some minor potential delays to consultants work streams, the Board considers the pandemic could delay the Araguaia project financing timeline by a number of months (this will be dependent on the duration of the effects of the Covid-19 virus across global markets). However, with the current cash resources available to the Group the Directors are of the opinion that it has sufficient financing to enable the Company to continue its operations for at least 12 months should any additional cost arise as a result of any potential deterioration in the global Covid-19 situation.”