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I think highly possible bid will coming soon, or very good pipe offer as sky news reported weeks ago.
Presumably the rise is linked to the RNS. Looks like another US private equity fund taking advantage of the undervalued UK market
The BAU price I get is £1.80 based on 2023 consensus forecast from Hyve website:
https://hyve.group/Investors/Forecasts
Assume EPS of £0.10/share in 2023.
PE 18
EPS 0.10
Share Price 1.80
There's upside, especially with a conservative EPS, but another share dilution through a rights issue or PIPE will have impact unless purely for growth and acquisition.
No clue about the rise, but can't complain )
Volume looks unusually good. May be news coming
bbeettaa - the problem is its impossible to factor in any impact. You might guess they would lose 10% or 25% of their business, or you might guess, actually, their relative position in the market will have strengthened and they'll gain 10% or 25%.
The point is, no -one really knows so for me the pre covid/pre-dilution price is a reasonable benchmark to base a target around. This has worked well on other shares in my portfolio - including MNZS in the aviation sector - so see no reasons why it can't here.
I think physical's point about the market cap is a good one though. Is it possible to see the full history on that anywhere?
Same with me, I don't mean to sound hostile either, so not to worry :) I don't know / we don't know the answers is all I'm trying to share.
Do we even know the cause of the rise today? :)
I have some shares in IAG - long termer ;)
I have actually increased exposure to airlines, and Rolls - Royce. I do believe in full recovery and on top of it, there is crazy Private Equity for the Industry at the moment. Acquisition market lively and with big players like Informa - UBM - Reed - Comexposium consolidating, Hyve is in a unique position and a golden opportunity for any investor. Also a big plus not factored in yet are events organising companies being perceived increasingly as tech companies, because of their experiments with online market making solutions. Think competing with Alibaba in a sense.
I know a few things about the industry, much more than what I know about investing unfortunately. For me, the airlines are closer to gambling, but I am confindent on Hyve, and other investments from the events industry.
By the way, I hope I dont sound hostile. I appreciate the challenging approach, as all debates should be.
With the rights issue - it isn't wrong, check HL as well. The price suggested by @dehghani isn't incorrect, assuming you factor in no impact from Covid.
We all want it to rise and return to normal, but to not factor any impact? Brave or stupid. I've already attended 4 digital conferences this year - will that continue? Who knows.
I have been trading Hyve (ITE) for longer than 20 years. Google is wrong. It was the highest at 2013, and the price was around 310p. I got a summer house. It was the lowest at 2009, around 56p. I had a loan recalled and had to sell shares at the lowest point of the crisis.
Don't get lost in numbers. Calculate from Mcap.
PRICE: 145p
MCAP: £350M
What should the price be, for the Mcap to reach £900M(2019)?
So you're expecting a full recovery? Even though the end of Jan price was 610 (after all rights issues).
As I said, google shows the new averages over 5 years, simply adjust the graph. Yes more capital available, there was many ups and downs before Covid existed.
Your calculations forget any long term impact Covid may have - which is the big unknown. You can't just go "Right - Covid done, full recovery". Shall we all just pump our money into airlines as the share price will recover to full price, with no after impact. Well no, as we already known (thanks to airlines being open) what they expect passenger numbers to be in X years, hell they have even retired planes early.
But don't worry - full recovery for Hyve. Good luck to you.
Thanks for the responses guys, and dehghani.eco thanks v much for the detailed calculations!
Bottom line appears to be there's LOTS more upside to come here (assuming you concur with the view that things will return more or less back to normal)
Your calculation is wrong. I have done the calculation one year ago while google and all other websites miscalculated it (I proud myself for it). I remember google for a long time misrepresent the price (at Dec 2019 was around 300) and in march after 9 month, google had found the right way to calculate it and it now fully matches with my calculations (check my pld posts in Nov 2020).
Just to have an idea about Hyve price (new prices):
Dec 2015: 540p
Dec 2016: 525p
Dec 2017: 600p
Dec 2018: 350p
Dec 2019: 575p
Dec 2020: 130p
Mar 2021: 125p
Jun 2021: 145p
Sep 2021: ??
Dec 2021: ?
The problem of calculation leading to 300 or 340 is ignoring the capital proceeds by using the rights issue. This capital has decreased the debt and increased the cash (deposit) and so the market value of the company in the numerator has changed as well.
Here is the correct calculations:
The pre-dilution price (adjusted only for consolidation) is in the London stock exchange or Yahoo finance that was 1080 at Dec 2019. Then due to COVID-19, the price fall down to very low levels. The price of each share before rights issue was 215 (price at 6 May 2020) and the theoretical ex-right price was 114.2 (price at 12 June). The decrease in the price (215 to 114) was because of the dilution due to rights issue. So we have the dilution rate (53%) to convert old price to new prices (adjusted prices for rights issue).
The key is calculation of the theoretical ex-right price that is 113 in the announcement and 114 based on my calculations. I calculated it a year ago and if I find time to investigate my old paper will post it here.
If somebody wants a much simpler (naive but still correct) approximation can argue that the price was 1080 and fall to 215 due to covid-19 (one fifth). So if the price after rights issue is around 114 that is the price in 12 June, we can expect recovery of the price to around 570 (multiple to five).
I have done the math. Pre covid, pre rights issue, pre consolidation etc. price was 110p which is equal to todays 340p. To clarify, if covid didn't happen, but the consolidation and new shares issues did happen, the price today would be 340p (excluding the positive effect of capital raised on rights issue, as it would have been unnecessary.)
The Mcap was around £900M when the price was 110p. Today its around £355M at 145p.
The market caps today are a joke really. In the industry, the valuation method is Ebitda multiplied with 8-12 depending on the company's position in the market.
It's pretty easy. Just google the Hyve share price, it averages out automatically.
Then, finger in the air moment, work out future value. Yes they might survive (others wont), yes they might buy up competition. But, yes there might be less travel to conferences, yes people might go digital instead of F2F - always ups and downs / unknowns :)
It was only a matter of time before this started rising.
Only question now is where to? I'm still confused by the different responses here regarding what the pre-covid/pre-dilution price was lol
Any idea on the cause of the jump today?
regret not topping up on the lows now, unsure as to whether well see 120s again
Good upside last week but it will be slow to move this year hoping for big things 2022
It will as soon as the government stop lying
Starting to think this is never going back to 200p tbh
Taken profit this morning. Will look to get back in once the restriction issues look clearer and they firm up the funding talks.
Cheers Happening, let’s wait for more news. Hope see rns on Tuesday. Enjoy your bank holiday weekend with nice weather. Gla
Initially would have thought that just the fact they are in talks should prove to be a positive for the SP. Thankyou Gordon for sharing the info.