Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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HH.
" upon successful commissioning you could then return the ESP’s to their dormant state"
Yes.
On which thought, off to bed....
adoubleuk, no, not night shift, I’m semi retired, in so much as I would only return to the fray if there was a project that really piqued my interest, and I felt that the challenge was sufficiently interesting to me.
For further clarification of my last post, when I said “doesn’t mean that you want to turn the bulb (ESP) on”, I meant for operational/production reasons, it was a given that you would require to “turn it on” as part of the commissioning task, so as to ensure functionality, but upon successful commissioning you could then return the ESP’s to their dormant state.
HH,
"I think we are in agreement on the crux of the issue, that being that merely because the VSD is to be commissioned that does not necessarily mean that the ESP’s are to be immediately utilised."
Not just writing at the same time, but I think we're reading off the same page.
HH,
Writing at the same time! You on nightshift?
HH,
"Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile."
I'd draw a different analogy.
And then I didn't post that analogy, but wrote technical stuff, instead!
Stupid me.
Here goes.
You've bought a luxury house in Laurel Canyon, or somewhere like that. In the summertime. Fully equipped. But it being summertime, you sip your pina coladas outside in the sun, then turn in for bed, just using the usual light-switches, which are separate from the state-of-the-art dimmer system you can control from your smartphone.
Now, later, it's winter. You are having some parties, and realise you haven't even used the dimmers to enhance the 'mood'. You hit your smartphone, but somehow the app hasn't been installed, or the thingy which connects you to the dimmer function hasn't been switched on.
So you call the people who did the installation to come and walk you through the entire procedure, and at the same time check it's all working OK. Even if during the next party you forget all about the dimmer function, because the ambient lighting's fine, already....
adoubleuk, I may be wrong, and no doubt it is caused my a lack of clarity in the point I was attempting to put across, but let me clarify if you will.
The point that I was inadequately attempting to get across was, just because you have a dimmer switch (VSD) making sure that is operable doesn’t mean that you want to turn the bulb (ESP) on, it merely means that you are checking that the control function (dimmer switch/VSD) will function in the way that it is intended for whenever you do want to illuminate in a variable manner the bulb at a later date, if and when, at your point of choosing, that you feel there is a need to do so.
Perhaps my latter post on the subject, once I had realised what the rumour was, may further clarify why there may be no cause for concern if the rumour does have any credence.
Just because a control system is being commissioned it is not necessarily a precursor to the item which it is designed to control being deployed, being done so in direct continuation of the commissioning aspect.
i.e. Just because a cruise missile control system is commissioned it is not a sign that the missile is to be imminently launched, it is merely a function check.
I think we are in agreement on the crux of the issue, that being that merely because the VSD is to be commissioned that does not necessarily mean that the ESP’s are to be immediately utilised.
Though I am in agreement that there may be occasion to do so at certain times whenever they want to perhaps induce a response from the reservoir (i.e. induce a level of draw down that natural flow cannot give them, to see what effect that has within the reservoir, or to magnify any effect that may be witnessed at distant wells with gauges deployed so as to identify any connectivity), or as you likely correctly identified, to maintain the current production from both wells when one may be temporarily down for maintenance (be that line pigging, or any other flow assurance maintenance/investigation that may be felt necessary).
But yes, sometimes I can appear to go off on a tangent, but generally speaking it is merely a case of me not being able to get my point across in a coherent manner.
Thanks for the Lyell link
AK,
Thanks for your very detailed answers and questions too of the Water on the Brain Conudrum. For me I must admit I thought of bailing out today, but when recalculated what my new average SP would be I thought F---k it, if I have to wait a year or 2 so be it.
What I will now be looking for from HUR is a revaluation of strategy perhaps on going forward into 2020. I would like to think if at all possible HUR might bring forward further new drills on Lancaster plus of course plans for a 2nd FPSO to maybe late 2020?
Jay Kay
My BinL collapsed the other week it was only due to my sister who kept him alive as it took the NHS ambulance over 30 mins to reach the door
On arrival one of the medics was a sullen as anything and it was only my sisters perseverance that got him to hospital.
Maybe if we stopped offering everything from aspro for free it might actually get a bit better.
JiffyBag,
"How come one might ask, are we only just getting round to the commissioning the ESP's 6 months later, is that par for the course?"
The ESP's themselves were no doubt 'commissioned' (ie function-tested) during recompletion with the PBLJ. But given the good natural flowrates through the FPSO after FoiL, doing so again was maybe back-heeled. It's not all 'plug and play', and if there's still work going on before the FPSO is 100%, as DiveCentre suggests, ther's no doubt a planned order in which things are done.
Heck, we still don't even know if power is being provided by the turbines from produced gas, or whether she's still burning fuel-oil. Lots of things we don't know.
Jiffy,
Thanks for reposting 'Lyell link'. Guess it was something I missed. I'll wait 'til I've been to bed (perchance to sleep & dream) and woken up again before I read it, though!
DC/AD,
How come one might ask, are we only just getting round to the commissioning the ESP's 6 months later, is that par for the course?
DC,
"Commissioning has yet to be completed prior to final acceptance. I assume that will include use of the ESP's"
Yes, of course there's that, as well.
adoubleuk
Commissioning has yet to be completed prior to final acceptance. I assume that will include use of the ESP's
HH,
I usually respect your posts, but think you've gone a bit off-tangent with your latest. Though yes, it's late at night.
"Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile."
I'd draw a different analogy.
The ESP's were no doubt used during recompletion by the PBLJ last year, just to test them.
But (to our knowledge), have not yet been turned on during EPS. So if it's a question of 'commissioning' the controls, it has to be done sometime. (See an earlier post of mine.) The timing of when it's done is neither here nor there.
Yes, Dspp's post 'point 7' does instill some doubts, once more. I'm not saying he does it deliberately, maybe he's just ultra-cautious.
But here's a hypothesis as to why they want to get the ESP's running. based on no evidence at all. But not implausible at all, I think.
We've been informed that tests have been done or are in progress, producing each well separately. We have no details whatsoever as to the results of these tests. Nevertheless, I think it can be safely assumed that during single-well 'natural' production, actual volumes produced are less than with both wells online together.
Now in the future with the EPS (talking years), there's no guarantee that problems might not occur with one or other of the wells. NOT necessarily reservoir-related. There's a lot of 'machinery' (for want of a better word) down those wells, and no guarantee that some 'breakdown' might not occur. So you want to be sure that you can continue production using just one well. should such a mishap occurs. So you want to bring an ESP online to do so.
It'll be even better once Lincoln is tied in: 'redundancy' with just two wells is OK, but only OK. Three-well redundancy es a lot better.
Or maybe (hypothesis 2), the recent 'tests' have indicated that they might want to 'bounce' production from one well to another, but I can't really dream up a reason why.
Except (hypothesis 3, following up from number 2). It could have something to do with something as mundane as pigging schedules. Shut in one well for flowline pigging, ramp up the other, meantime, just to maintain optimum output.
Why raise questions which raise doubts, when the company has already said that they'd inform if the EPS was misbehaving, and they haven't done that?
Part of Tullow's recent RNS refered to their new downsized production projections were due to unforeseen higher water-cut on one of their ('conventional') fields. It happens, and in 'conventional', once 'coning has started, it's hard to stop. In FB it's different, but anyway, the company has said our water is not from the aquifer.
People have lost money on TLW, quite possibly people also invested here. So now, mention water-cut and such people get scared. And other unscrupulous characters can easily stoke that fear, for their own personal gain.
BuyinMay,
Exactly, I made and posted the same sentiment, in that it 'DID NOT ADD UP'
Haven’t seen him post anything remotely positive recently yet he states he’s “.......very long,”
dspp
Your point 3 "If you think the only information that comes out is via RNS then I suggest you wise up." troubles me.
I have no doubt that information will leak out and there is I am sure an industry grapevine, but non industry private investors will not have access to this information other that what might filter through on these boards. e,g today we have Jackswan in his first post and having only joined today informing us of ESP switch on. Can this be treated as reliable information?
You have said yourself do no believe anything on these boards.
Yes I am wise to the fact that information will come out other than via an RNS but exactly where other than a company RNS can the average PI expect to get information that can be relied upon?
Here is a comment on HUR, posted on LSE UKOG just over an hour ago:
'$60 million loss, SP below 30p and sinkingblike a proverbial ship, huge lift costs of operating offshore, and a loan that makes ones eyes water, but not as much water as in their production wells. Ouch. You're right, HUR will never make a net profit. Loan impairment costs and bad results = good night nurse. Expect a buy out for peanuts in less than 12 months. Ouch. Sub 20p v soon, equating to a 66% reduction in SP in less than 6 months. Good stock picking.'
That's the kind of garbage you see on LSE.
Stand fast, as I was writing that post someone posted that the rumour is that the variable speed drives are rumoured to be commissioned in January.
Were that rumour to be proven to be accurate then I would agree with adoubleuk’s response ...... they have to be commissioned at some time.
The launching system on nuclear submarines require initial commissioning, but that doesn’t then indicate that there is to be an imminent nuclear weapon launch.
IMHO
dspp
2) i don't have a problem with your data. My only issue is that the water figure you have used and gone on about repeatedly was released by hur already and they said it was better than they expected. They have also gone to great lengths to explain that it is not affecting production. which is backed up with the offloads we have had. According to hur there is no problem so why are you going on about it?
4) your hypotheses are just that
5) you are long...have you bought any in the drop?..no don't answer that as we have no way of knowing.
9) disagree. it has been a perfect storm. people sell up at xmas for a variety of reasons. we have a general election which is also causing fear. Market was already spooked with ECO and I3E. i suspect as usual on AIM people sold on "news" especially sold on bad drill result. There were a couple of notifiable shorts opened immediately prior to RNS. negative rumours also spooked some - some have admitted on here. water % being one
so i think a lot of PIs have sold = price drop
10) there are several possibilities why HUR are releasing news in december
a) good news from testing - it has been 6 months which was a timeframe they already talked about
b) they want to improve communication
c) they were worried that bad drill result will affect price so wanted some good news in there as well.
etc
AK,
Point 8: Today Malrees< Thread Title Water
'There is a great deal of nonsense being written on this board, mainly by people who have no worthwhile knowledge of Lancaster. I assume they have some ulterior motive.
However, I suspect that one of the main issues is that even if they wish to understand more, they are incapable of doing so. I am not a geologist, but having spent two hours assimilating what is in RT's latest Lyell paper, which was posted on 29th November, I am totally relaxed about my investment here.
For those with the knowledge and/or inclination to understand more the link is:'
HTTP://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/jgs/early/2019/11/29/jgs2019-142.full.pdf
I knew I would start the jungle drums. My preference in football team has no bearing on my political thoughts as I knew nothing about politics aged 5. Pretty derogatory response. I knew the education, prescription points etc. would raise it's head but in true SNP style, they were brought into a discussion on my thoughts on a different subject being the taxes I pay which I don't agree with. I don't go to University and would happily pay for any prescriptions. I have the benefit of medical insurance and have in the past been offered NHS treatment and explained to the Specialist that as I this cover would not burden the NHS with cost of treatment.
Reference point 7, and please bear with me as I haven’t seen the original post/document being referred to, but I just cannot fathom out the reference to the ESP VSD’s.
As far as I am aware the ESP’s have not been utilised during production of these wells, at least to date, so why would there be any relevance to the variable speed drives, as they cannot modulate something that isn’t currently in operation.
Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile.
IMHO
dspp,
I would firstly, as a rider, wish to assure you that I am not casting direct apersions on your character or motives by my posts here. Nevertheless I look at everything I read on any BB with a 'hairy eyeball' in times of doubt or volatility. Hope you'll forgive me that.
You list a number of points to which I'd like to reply.
"2. If you have a problem with the data I have used then please contact HUR and the OGA as they are responsible for data quality matters."
I don't doubt the data. However I doubt your interpretation of it in your post on TLF as being a 'caution point', for reasons I already explained here. In fact your own scattergraph underlined this. You cannot take just one datapoint (out of five) above a 'curve' and interpret it as a 'sign'. Especially when the data is two months old.
"4. If you have a problem with the four hypotheses I posted (of which the last is "something I cannot think of") then please do so... So far no-one has figured out an alternative hypothesis."
My own hypothesis, for lack of any contrary evidence, is that everything's going fine out on the EPS. Does that bother you?
"5. If you have a problem with the shareprice then I am the wrong person to discuss it with. "
You're not bothered about the current SP and behaviour?
"7. That information (rumour) about ESP VSD commissioning is also relevant. One brings ESPs on line to increase drawdown. Why does one seek to increase drawdown ?"
To increase production, usually. The f***in' stuff's got to be commissioned sometime...
"8. That is a really good lyell paper, posted today, worth reading. But it doesn't actually say anything that hasn't already been chewed over (with fewer words) already on the relevant BB's."
Link, please? I'd prefer to read a Lyell paper than 95% of anything posted on these BB's. Other than the weekend O/T stuff, of course.
"9. There are many issues with HUR that lead to low shareprices. The big ones are technical (primarily reservoir) risk; project risk; funding risk; and shareholder risk. A few (%) of PIs panicking and running for the exit (or being stopped out) are very low on the scale of that very last item."
There you go again...
"10. There will be a reason HUR feel the need to come to the market with an RNS (or similar) re EPS during December, which is in advance of their previous Q1 2020 intent. Quite what it is I do not know, but I watch with interest and I hope it fills in the information gaps that ought by now to be fillable."
Me to regarding that hope. Dr T has said, seemingly, during his RGS talk, that EPS is 'ahead of schedule'. To my mind this is why an update soon instead of waiting 'til the CMD.
"11. Do not come to me for a comfort blanket."
Don't worry, I won't. And I hope nobody asks me for one, either. And they're not getting my sleeping bag!