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We're having a BB discussion on a very relevant tech matter: a discussion that should not be necessary.
Gla
So you don’t know but there’s clearly something going on? Or they flowed 7 on its own for the month of September at 17k and got 8% WC?
You may not be wishing to influence the SP DSPP but I fear you’ve done exactly that.
JoeSoap - I don't know as sufficient information to form a view has not been given. There is clearly something going on. It is indeed possible that as you suggest in the near-well-bore(s) area there is limited fracture connectivity that chokes production, in such a way that opening one or the other well can influence where the fluids are preferentially drawn from, and hence the oil/water %. What quite a lot of people are misunderstanding is that the 'new' information in this respect is not the RNS information, it is instead the OGA production data. The OGA data quantifies exactly how much water and how much oil were produced in each month, which is information that HUR have not released directly to the public (it would be nice if they did). Also they are misunderstanding the reasons for discussing it. We are discussing it because it is vital to understand it, and because there are questions that it raises, not because I (at least) wish to influence share price. regards, dspp
dspp/ww re Q4.
If I may repeat this from my post of 24th Nov, (pre latest RNS) as my 'starting position' and then develop it further, you and others may be able to build on it or trash it. Either way I'd be interested.
"As for GLA, whilst the EPS is ahead of guidance, there has been no word on whether the AM is fully functional yet, and whether all planned field evaluations have been able to be completed.
The rapid pressure recognition in the other well has been attributed to the large fault near the heel of both wells. It may also explain the high PI if this fault has good connectivity with the driving aquifer.
The longer term ability to produce from the whole of the horizontal remains to be proven. The steady production of c8% perched water from 7z needs further explanation, as it is a significant volume and must have a driver which the oil filling sequence could neither access nor displace and yet is able to flow preferentially to oil in other faults and fractures."
There is obviously a very good fracture network in the vicinity of these 2 wells, better at 6 than 7z.
They talk to each other and share the same fault at the heel of the wells.
When tested individually, they can both draw primarily from this shared fault and give dry and c8% water resp..
When both are open, the fault cannot supply the same volume to each and more is drawn from further along the bores where it is still dry in 6 and more of the water in 7z is delivered (x2 as the av is c8%). HUR will clearly have the pressures for each well and with two active flowlines will know if the watercut from 7z increases but are unlikely to share.
It is unclear to me how the full length of the horizontal will ever deliver given the flow characteristics of this fault which is and needs to be continuously recharged by the surrounding matrix. [Someone on ADVN worked out the volume of oil to date and if this was then expressed in lxwxd the values were imo not credible for just that fault].
I am happy to believe that it is perched water, but a significant volume has been produced and if it continues it must be from a very large volume which is isolated from the original oil-fill, pierced by the drill and yet is connected to a driver.
The question of when coned water may appear in this primary delivery fault was discussed by WWN who identified that in the CPR low case is given as 3 years.
Fluid mechanics...Over to you.
joe
Good man.
WellWell: The Doctor is not concerned on the water cut
Neither am I .
Cat5: Hurricane paying for appraisel wells off of production out if Lincoln Crestal. Thanks to Spirit Energy
Best deal on Aim !
SotB I’m not entirely sure (and not for the first time either) what you’re saying but I’m guessing that in your opinion the water cut discussion is a red herring like me and there’s nothing to be concerned about in that regard?
Sonofthebull: Spirit paying for all GWA appraisal wells next year.
Unless I've misunderstood, I thought Spirit paid for these last three wells and now we're both into 50:50 from here on in?
An 8% water cut was listed in Septembers RNS.
This isn't exactly something new. 7.5% seems to be within expected range ? (5-10%).
However an non-geologist I appreciate the comments above...
https://www.investegate.co.uk/hurricane-energy-plc/rns/operational-update/201909020700068019K/
Yes indeed, but will the drill plan/location be? Possibly centred around Lincoln area inorder to develop a hub for a future Fpso OR will they continue to explore the far reaches of the Field?
WellWell : I'm making what the Dr Trice expressions are saying.........
Appears all good in the Hood. Lol Spirit paying for all GWA appraisal wells next year.
So what's the fuss
wellwell,
The simple answer is I don't know, and there is insufficient data in the public domain to be sure. The data that there is suggests three hypotheses, only the first two of which are plausible:
1. A rate-dependent watercut, which would be a bad thing as it would mean at least one well accessing water that is not perched/stranded.
2. Water breakthrough from perched/stranded water into the hitherto dry well, which would not be alarming if the total watercut were to then be stable at 8% (or so) irrespective of flow rate.
3. A fiendishly cunning management of the respective flow ratios, and total flows, from both wells, by calendar month, so as to needlessly scare the pants off any investor analysing OGA in-arrears data. I find this implausible.
4. Can you think of any others ?
It seems to me that there is a reason why HUR will be giving an EPS update in December, which is prior to their previously advertised Q1 2020 update. I have no insight into what they will say. I would very much like them to be firmly questioned in public by a competent questioner, however I suspect they will not subject themselves to that.
regards, dspp
Much stock has been put on the graph that suggests the WC has increased and the argument seems to suggest that it's coming as an aggregate of production from both wells rather than in September 17k and 8% WOC coming from just one well being on production only. It was pretty much dismissed as being unlikely.
The OGA data is 3 months in arrears.
The RNS on Monday....3 days ago directly from the CEO reads:-
"Average production for the remainder of the year is expected to continue to be in-line with guidance for Q4 2019 of approximately 11,000 bopd, constrained by system availability and data gathering requirements.
As part of the data gathering exercise for the Lancaster EPS, the Company has been carrying out periods of production from the 205/21a-6 and 205/21a-7Z wells separately, to assess fluid dynamics and measure reservoir performance without the impact of interference from the other well. An interim update will be made when these flow periods have been completed, which is expected to be later in December 2019"
I'll repeat the important part ***"carrying out periods of production from the 205/21a-6 and 205/21a-7Z wells separately, to assess fluid dynamics and measure reservoir performance without the impact of interference from the other well"***
Make of that what you will.
Also interested in the phrase "constrained by system availability" - could there be another flowline issue?