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Please excuse my ignorance, I’ve been away for a couple of weeks.
Can someone tell me where all this hysteria about water % originated from ?
Nothing in RNS’s.
Mr B, Re: 'Please excuse my ignorance, I’ve been away for a couple of weeks.
Can someone tell me where all this hysteria about water % originated from ?
Nothing in RNS’s.'
Was posted on a website called 'The Lemon Fool', for some reason it isn't online today.
Postings were on page 39 or 40, I recall.
https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/
Look up HUR Forum discussion pages when it comes back online.
Mr B
In short, DSPP who has posted some very thoughtful and considered things on Lemon Fool and on other boards, posted some speculatory findings based on data he gathered from the Oil and Gas Authority website. However, and it is an ENORMOUS
However, his data on potential increase of water was not calculated using the same time periods or frankly data that Hurricane use. It was, perhaps he may agree, in hindsight not entirely fair to attempt this, but nevertheless his, I would suggest if you read Hurricane's actual findings on their website, were not accurate. The naysayers, traders and whoknowswhaters in the employ of whoknowswho then jumped on this to scare holders into selling. This along with the dip in SP has led to a sense of despondency as we currently inhabit a sea of red. The naysayers and panic mongers have used this to infer that perhaps Hurricane's next update is bound to be negative. This goes against all the current evidence in play, ergo - it's total bull**** and hold.
Albi1 - was he referring to the recently drilled Warwick or Lancaster wells ?
Mr B
He was referring to Lancaster I believe. If I'm honest I didn't really concern myself as it was pure speculation. I am prepared to watch the SP fall to new lows, followed (in my possibly entirely deluded opinion) by new highs. Lancaster has exceeded expectation. Lincoln's results were positive. The result at Warwick West (a purely exploratory well and I gather extremely useful in further data analysis) was by no means a failure. Priorities are focused on producing at Lancaster and building up data on the entire Rona Ridge as a long term exercise. In my view someone or perhaps someones have a very clear agenda for scaremongering - which to me, I'm afraid, wrong or right, is just a 'buy' signal. I urge you to take time out and get your head around the data on Hurricane's website, review the demand for oil and gas in the next ten years, it's not decreasing and consider in whose interests it might be to bring the SP down?
Albi,
Do you think HUR are aware of the LF postings?
Jiffy,
"Do you think HUR are aware of the LF postings?"
I emailed them and made them aware there were some negative rumours being spread and asked them to act to quash them. I don't interpret their lack of reply to date as negative. When and if I get a reply I will update here. In the meantime - I'm relying on fundamentals and market need. Are we producing? Yes. Is that set to increase next year? Yes. Is demand for Oil and Gas actually real? Yes. Will the price rise long term? Oh yes. Just hold - there's no way this isn't going back up.
Let's not dance around the houses here.........
If what has been posted on social media or whatever turns out to be a deliberate attempt or genuine error and it falls under the heading of defamation then the host and originator better have deep pockets. This area of law is really being clamped down.
I've seen first hand the fallout from a rant and slip of the hand on the keyboard - it bankrupted somebody I know.
Albi,
Thanks, Good Man. Odd how LF is not vailable today , mmmmmmmmmm
Found the article on another site.
Seaside
It's about time, this area needs serious regulatory attention. People believe what they read and don't do their research!
Hoping that a very knowledgable poster is sued or worse based on a technically sound interpretation of public information (/data/facts) is a little steep, no?
No one said “it’s early coning”, all that was said was it was always a risk, and one explanation of the (perhaps not perfect data) was rate dependent water cut that is inconsistent with perched water.
We find out soon either way. I am underwater here now, like many others have missed the boat on banking profits, so am hoping for some good news but it really makes no sense to stifle well informed debate from knowledgable posters.
Wedgwood, I wasn't referring to LF although posts there have caused distress no doubt about it. I'm referring to the paid gollums who hang out on BBs everywhere sowing seeds of fear, doubt and misinformation.
I dont think anyone - well certainly not me - would wish a genuine poster any difficulties in that respect.
My point was, with the best of intentions you can fall foul of the law when bashing away at the keyboard.
Equally, if your a wrongun you can come unstuck.
I'm not sure which 'very knowledgeable poster' you're referring to, Wedgwood, but I wonder whether he would be more knowledgeable than Morgan Stanley's analysts, who gave their opinion after the WW 'disaster':
'Under the assumption of a price of Brent crude oil of $60.0, Morgan Stanley estimated a net asset value for Hurricane of between 54.0-214.0p, depending on the valuation for the contingent resource base in place at Lancaster and Lincoln.'
The mid-point of their estimated NAV range is 134p, considerably above the 15p level being predicted by one poster.
I suggest HUR is seriously-undervalued and I know plenty of people share my view.
Albi 1,
"I emailed them and made them aware there were some negative rumours being spread and asked them to act to quash them. I don't interpret their lack of reply to date as negative."
Maybe it's just a coincidence that Lemonfool was offline today...
There's one thing about that site. It's often a refuge for posters who've been chucked off other BB's for some misdemeanor or other.
Dspp clearly doesn't fit that particular category, because he sometimes posts here. but boy, he must spend some time on his lemonfool posts: they're waay longer than mine! He also obviously has a good deal of technical knowledge. But now, that seems to be spilling over into giving people veiled advice about what they should do with their shares, which is something I personally don't try to do. And that's why I've now become suspicious. It's a classic move: build up peoples' confidence with long, knowledgable messages, then start adding a bit of disinformation.
The day my attention was drawn to his lengthy 'water-cut' post on lemonfool, I went to that site and read his message closely, which included some rather 'negative' stuff. Remember, just phrases like 'urging caution' can inspire doubts, likewise the suggestion that something's being 'hidden from us' so far by the company. I expressed my misgivings about his statistical analysis based simply on public-domain information, and the 'slant' he'd put on the rather small amount of data. The following day he appeared here, explaining his thinking. Up to everyone else to decide what they think of his explanations: I'm not going to start writing personal value-judgements here. And since then (though I may be wrong), I don't think we've heard a peep (pardon pun) out of him. But he's still going on great guns in the same vein over at lemonfool, still using a lot of technical language that may be well over many peoples' heads.
Some people treat their shares and trade them completely dispassionately, going by percentages and trends only. I try to, but regarding HUR I'll readily admit to being 'confirmation biased', so hold on when all the curves say I ought to sell. Now is one of those times. That may of course change if the next RNS contains bad news. I didn't consider the last on 'bad'.
I do have one or two reasons to support my thinking, in case it interests anyone. Offload shipments have continued since September, the cutoff for OGA's reporting. Admittedly the last load didn't go to Rotterdam for whatever reason, so our 'spy' there couldn't tell us the volume. And Dr T was reported to be on top form at his RGS talk, and he might not have been, if he was hiding bad news.
AK,
Understand your 'radar' being triggered. You seem to have good instincts from what I've observed to date. I don't ascribe malign motivation to posters like DSPP but having seen the damage his posts have caused I suppose we all need (myself included) to be aware of the effect we may intentionally or otherwise have on others.
I sincerely believe what we're seeing is SP manipulation at its finest. Maybe not, maybe just the final hurray of hedgers getting ready to bet the other way as we rise? I honestly don't know. I'm trying to work out who on earth I vote for tomorrow ... damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of scenario. At the risk of getting absolutely pilloried on here, quite tempted to vote for the Green party just for the hell of it!
Albi1,
"I sincerely believe what we're seeing is SP manipulation at its finest. "
Of course, by saying that, you're entering into conspiracy-theory territory. But for what it's worth, we're not the only ones on this BB to share that belief!
And have you noticed? A lot of the 'derampers' mainly post only during market opening - hours!
Whatever....... regarding the election. Although still a UK citizen, I didn't vote, and didn't even when I lived there. But also don't vote for anyone over here in France, though have the 'right' to do so.
Won't prevent me from staying up late with Sky TV on tomorrow, because of course it's of interest. All I'm really hoping is that Lord Buckethead ousts the PM in his constituency, but unfortunately don't think it'll happen.
If Labour get in these could go to 10 pence
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/212582/labour-threatens-oil-windfall-tax-if-elected/
But they won’t. And if they formed a coalition with SNP what do you think they say?
1 out of 10.
Must try harder.
Hey Son.
Whatever happened here then? Thanks Dad. Lol.
“Just topped up in the babies ISA's . Now in strong , strong hands until the end game. If you care about your kids future then open up a JISA account today and buy some Hurricane Energy. XO is a brilliant no frills platform run by Jarvis. “
Think if Labour got in , 10p share price would be least of my worries. I have already paid £0000’s more in tax over the last 3 years thanks to, I’ll be kind here, Ms Sturgeon, in comparison to colleagues south of the border. A tax which she described last night on Scottish Leaders debate as a tax on the “richest” in society. Richest in society I say. Good use of words I would say, so as to appease her electorate and make them think her tax increases are on the “Rich” Tory electorate. She forgot those in the NHS and Education that we’re caught by her unfair levies. Business acumen, I don’t think so. Keep money in general circulation to earn more taxes, VAT etc etc. Rant over and you will no doubt understand where my postal vote was not cast. Phew.