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How do they get rid of the paper I wonder... I'm guessing selling?
IIRC, the bottom line is that derivatives of gold, i.e. paper, now have to be covered by 85% of that derivative valuation with physical Gold ownership which means that people holding paper have to either get rid of the paper and/or rebalance with an awful lot of physical.
At the same time, physical Gold ownership is now treated as cash on the balance sheet.
Clearly, IMO, they're setting Gold up for a massive boom cycle by simultaneously forcing people to buy it whilst overtly winking that the paper manipulation is going to come to an end and that cash is trash. Everyone knows how manipulated Gold has been over very many years so if you want to blow the next bubble in it then you have to let everyone know that it's on.
If they did this without overtly ending the paper game then you've still got nervous buyers but no more IMO - they're telling you it's a safe bet for when they let it go in around 12 months time IMO.
I fully expect the Gold chart to replicate the S&P chart over the next 3-5 years - it's the only thing left they can blow a huge bubble in - usury is dead in the water and GDPs everywhere are taking a nosedive against real-world inflation.
I see that delayed implementation quietly slipped in this month. I recall that it was certain elements of basel 3 that were going to be delayed. I wonder whether the gold stuff was amongst them? The element that interested me, was increased security to cover liquidity requirements on unallocated gold holdings. I presumed that this meant that any banks with big gold shorts on their books, would have to carry a far higher cash (or presumably physical) holding to balance that risk. (Again a lay person's understanding). I thought that this then meant that institutions would have a strong motive to close out excessive short positions prior to the deadline, as these effectively become very expensive to simply roll over in perpetuity, as had been the case up to now? It isn't half convoluted, isn't it? Brings to mind Charlie Munger's recent quote along the lines of, "The bankers will sell **** for as long as **** can be sold".
Afternoon.
Yes, don't get me wrong re the Gold price or the SP here in the short-term - I'm talking about pretty insignificant moves in the scheme of things but would of course love them to drop the SP here so I can buy more at mid teens.
Re Basel III timelines and implementation - it's already happened everywhere else, London are squirming as you would expect as they have the most to lose whilst banks all over the World are filling their boots though we won't of course here of London or the US making big buys for obvious reasons - Singapore is a bigtime wink as to what's coming though.
In these circumstances, I don't expect Gold to fly due to the LBMA/CRIMEX paper dumping stranglehold, hence my 2022 H2 timeline for some real action, but it will also underpin the Gold price at around current levels, give or take 30 bucks or so.
We'll see a rounded bottom forming and likely some pre-boom attacks on $1,900s again as the buying pressure becomes too much to keep the price down giving us a rising floor against a horizontal resistance - bullish.
When the LBMA/CRIMEX decide to let it fly is unknowable but again, I've got a 12 month timeline going by the Gold chart which may, per chance, fit very nicely with the LBMA's January 2023 date.
The reason I like HUM so much is because they're very profitable at the current Gold price, they've paid all the bills to grow (+200%!) and derisk the company via three mines in different jurisdictions, extended the LoM of the Yanfolila cashcow having paid that loan off, have got the loan for Kouroussa sorted and will formalise the true value of the Dugbe monster in six or so months time via the DFS.
Only Dugbe funding is the unknown here, other than the precise Gold price but that's not really a conversation for another 12 months - also nice timing IMO as we could/should see a nice cash build from here, especially if the Gold price does indeed spend some time at $1,900s in the interim period rather than $1,700s.
According to google, Basel 3 implementation date for the UK has been delayed by a year to 1 Jan 2023
When looking at the answer to the question 'When was Basel III implemented?', the answer given is:
Basel III was agreed upon by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in November 2010, and was scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2015; however, implementation was extended repeatedly to 1 January 2022 and then again until 1 January 2023, in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
2WM
My understanding is that simply under BASEL 3 rules banks can now hold physical fully allocated Gold valued at 100% of metals value as part of their capital holdings for first time ... dare I say 'cash' equivalent anyone!
I suspect that is why POG is being kept low so that banks can full this requirement before the Jan-22 deadline. Note this now needs to be physical not 'paper' gold and everything that I am reading suggests physical gold is hard to acquire whilst paper gold is being shorted so that physical gold requirements can be filled at sensible prices.
I suspect that come Jan-22 when the BASEL3 buying has been completed that banks will not mind if POG goes up as it then helps their capital position.
ATB APR
That Basel January deadline is really interesting and something worth chatting about, if anyone has any thoughts? At the heart of the conversation, it's hard to know if it's another damp squib or a fundamental change. If it is a fundamental change (as I think it is, to the best of my reading of the available commentary) then its hard to know how the effect manifests. I dont think it's some sort of dramatic rocket as many youtube channels would have us believe. For a start, a lot of the action must surely be happening already, as the various players position themselves. In fairness we've seen a little divergence from historical patterns of gold vs silver, gold vs dollar, gold vs oil and so on recently. Also practically, a December 31 hard deadline, is really a soft deadline in and around the pre-Christmas week as there is very little volume to work with between Christmas and new year. And then at the other end, it's hard to know how fudgy enforcement will be. Is it a year of warnings and notices and appeals, before any actual real impact takes hold? Maybe it's the former lawyer it me seeing a lot of grey areas? Just how much wriggle room will there be in the new year?
As a rank amateur in these things, my understanding is that the basic manipulation game is to increase short positions on news and in low volume market conditions, say pre-open on Mondays and public holidays in big markets etc, to drive price as low as possible and then to close a greater number shorts in higher volumes later, without driving the price up as much as you drove it down earlier, by picking your battlefield on timing. I'd love someone more knowledgeable to confirm this? But if that is indeed the game, then market disruption on fundamentals, as is currently happening, must surely ruin the game with possibly not much time on the clock? And that would mean fewer opportunities to short or to risk leaving existing shorts open? If that is the case, I just can't see too much leeway for the price of gold to be suppressed between now and January, as might have been the case in a quieter 'normal' market?
I'm hoping for higher prices every week, from now. But it feel a little like building a puzzle with half the pieces.
I personally hope you don't get your
wish bonker, if they push the share price
down, the share struggles to rise again,
20p was the baseline low, for a long time,
82% of IG clients are long on gold so
hopefully your wrong about gold as well,
in any case we are approaching 1st jan
when we were promised a new regime in
gold and a firmer price.
looks like there is a delay in the kouroussa
finance, we were told there would be an
immediate drawdown of the 1st tranche and
construction was to start in November, unless
of course they don't feel a need to tell us
As always this share is a gamble, I don't mind
gambling on hum but I don't want to gamble
on the gold price as well, last year, the trading
update with the bad news was on 2nd Dec,
I almost don't want to see another red dot
before Christmas.
Personally positive about Q4, not so positive
about the kouroussa loan coming through,
drilling results I think will be good when they
come, in the last interview they were hopeful
that the 10 year life for yanfolila would
be secured on the back of these.
So sitting tight at the moment, but slightly
less optimistic but good news they have started
to mine Gonka and a slightly softer oil price.
A clearer picture should emerge soon.
Come on let's have a decent drop in SP :)
I'm quite disappointed in Gold's performance today - I was hoping they'd slaughter it (like Bitcoin's -9%) and maybe knock a couple of pence off the SP here but obviously not happening.
Fingers crossed they push Gold to $1,730 (March 2020 trend line) next week ahead of jobs/CPI the following week and the spivs controlling this do us a favour by temporarily dropping the SP a decent amount.
If you haven't got a timeline measured in months/quarters here and on Gold then you're going to drive yourself crazy.
The music is about to stop, everything else is a charade, the only thing that isn't is the yellow stuff made in Supernovas and this company is still highly profitable at $1.7k Gold.
Have a good one y'all.
The idea that crypto currencies could replace Fiat currencies AND would be a good thing for society as a whole is nonsense.
You also say: “ As for FIAT currencies they are basically the root of all that is wrong in the World.”
Er….
1. The crypto boom is a classic speculative bubble. The technology is interesting and will lead to innovation but the very many individual crypto tokens are tulips.
2. The vast majority of people using crypto to ‘transact’ are criminals, fraudsters, money launderers, hackers, drug dealers and anyone else who needs to hide their activities from the govt/taxman/police/family etc
3. As I understand it the current processing and maintenance of crypto ‘distributed ledgers’ consumes energy equivalent to a reasonably sized country. (I heard the netherlands but anecdotal). Now, you don’t have to be a mathematician to understand the implications of the exponential growth here…
Ugjot….you say about Fiat currencies : ‘“The ability to just generate more of the thing that many people measure their labour and hence savings in is open to abuse.”’ forgive me but didn’t all of the crypto currencies (how many are there?) get conjured up out of thin air ??
"C'mon guys lets have it."
Let's have what, exactly?
Wake me up when we hit $2k, not the crappy, "on it's arse" levels we're at now, which are still leading to SP falls throughout the sector.
I'm sorry, but I'm just not getting the stuff I'm reading on here.
More ammo for the SMO argument
Https://news.sky.com/story/hundreds-of-rafts-dredging-brazil-river-as-environmentalists-urge-halt-to-gold-rush-12477632
If someone can show me anything that Bitcoin can do more efficiently than any other existing technology then it might have my attention.
To add to that I also think BTC fans are about to learn for a second time and in as many years that BTC is not a safe haven asset or a reserve currency challenger.
Whether it be apples, cars, socks, booze or crypto... If there's adds on the internet telling how good it is, then they're selling it. :-P
Thanks for that :)
Bitcoin is digital property that provides the foundation for the nascent but burgeoning Crypto space. These can be used as currencies, i.e. to transact, but in my view BTC will become to valuable for that. The Alt Coins (or Alts as they are called; Ethereum, Cardano, Solana etc) and really new digital Platforms for doing all manner of things. Smart Contracts and DeFi will change the financial world as we know, in fact already are. Currency is really a misnomer. I see these as digital investments in an increasingly digitised world. Not having exposure is frankly stupid.
21M BTC is broken down into 8 decimal places where one unit is a SAT. Kind of like pounds and pence but different multiples. So there are plenty BTC to go round. The real power comes from it being truly decentralised and hence trustless, and what I now believe is the most powerful computing network in the World. This is an innovation on a breathtaking scale which is why many of the big Tech Entrepreneurs and increasing Institutions are now on board.
As for FIAT currencies they are basically the root of all that is wrong in the World. The ability to just generate more of the thing that many people measure their labour and hence savings in is open to abuse. Inflation is yet another tax.
Governments could not fund War and never ending boondoggles if the money needed to finance them was actually of real value, and investments would be made far more prudently and speculation would fall off a cliff. Politicians would be far more answerable to the taxpayer which in itself would enhance the democratic process. So like I say to everyone, Gold and Bitcoin have a important place in a well diversified portfolio but as well all know POG and POS will continue to be manipulated until it becomes impossible to do so. That could be 2yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs away. My Crypto portfolio has VASTLY outperformed my Gold & Silver and will likely continue to do so.
Yep, just another $20 so we close for the week above $1,822 and breaking the downtrend from Aug-20 would be fab
ATB APR
C'mon guys lets have it.
Anyone who claims Crypto currencies will win out over FIAT is a moron imo. The whole reason why FIAT exists is because commodity money is finite and hamstrings a country's ability to generate growth.
Furthermore, how does one distribute a decentralized new global currency when it's finite.... 21 million bitcoins and 7 billion people, it's a wholly unrealistic proposition. Can't see the state pension getting paid in BTC anytime soon, or ever. I can however see digital tokenised versinos of FIAT currencies, pegged to their local currency as a means of digital exchange. However this is a million miles away from BTC and the likes being proven right.
Blockchain is the technology that will change how we make and record transactions. Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are merely working examples of how blockchain ledgers work and what they can be used for.
BTC is no more than an electronic double entry ledger and isn't any more efficient or secure than the other existing ledgers have currently used for decades, such as CREST, T/T or BACS to name but a few.
It's future use claims is not even rational
PS: On the Crypto vs Gold front - I agree, the whales would just love to whack retail right now, really not a good look for BTC inversing to Gold.
It's Tether vs the banks now - I know who I back in that war.
I doubt they are really but all part of the game - fingers crossed for a proper drop.
And I'm absolutely astounded to see that someone is panic selling selling their HUM shares into this maelstrom. Blows my mind! Like throwing money away.
Arguably, Gold breaking out of a Bull Flag to target $1,900s - let's see.
I think you are right Swampy. Crypto has weathered some pretty tough tests over the past few years an has dribbled along but the floor hasn't fallen out. its always kept some kind of base.
When the screws are really turned at a global level there will be i think a large portion of "investors" that get out, but i think the traders are going to be swimming in the blood. And the volatility is going to be incredible... the investors will either get burnt or buy back in at the LOWS. But a cull is on its way in the crypto market for sure. A royal rumble for the little guy.
Meanwhile I think the legacy investment market in gold will show incredible historic repetition and highlight the dependency on gold as a haven...
If we do see the kind of melting of economies that I think is imminent its going to be a VERY interesting time ahead. Mining and
physical assets load up!
Somber but honest.
Ballio