The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
no good idea .. too expensive ... hedging you use paying down Capex but not after successful repaiment of debt .. hedging limits the future profit
You have to wonder if hedging at least part of future production might be a good idea at this point. If there isn't a significant improvement in performance from the imminent update, I personally think they should hedge to limit the risk of Yanfolila becoming cash negative. Add that to the lost of questions.
@slickharry ..good summary ... Yanifolia had a perfect storm in 2021 ... problems with the contractor and the interuption because the protests ... but this all can change in 2022 with new equipment (shovels) on site and stavle mining -rates ... they will mine a new deposit this year and we will see better result ... political situation is the big question mark but i think its handable ... other miners already told the market there are no interutions at operations in Mali...
Why is the gold price 1600 GGG?
Apro, take the long list of positives and then counter it with a gold price of $1600 plus retaining the trust fund baby ceo. The company has staggered from one disaster to the next for a couple of years now. The only thing that has saved the company is the gold price, otherwise it would be bankrupt. Having said all this, it's valued at a ridiculously low level, even with having a f@ck up like DB in charge.
Can't help comparing this to one of my other goldies , SP 14.5 , gold production target 85k oz , AISC 680 LOM , and they are drilling to increase LOM and have there own lab
MCDONALD'S EXEC ON COSTS OF CERTAIN PRODUCTS- CO'S EXPECTATION IS THAT WILL BE ABOUT DOUBLE OR IN HIGH-SINGLE-DIGITS INCREASES FOR 2022
McFlation - remember all those 20%+ PPI numbers we've been seeing these past months are yet to flow through to new goods ...
Belting average @15p - I'm a tad below there now - only the impatient lose money from here.
12p was meant to be my entry, but I got greedy... Doh!
I would happy with 15p at the moment its
My breakeven
Berenberg just reiterated their 15p target for HUM - you've gotta lol
"Change in private inventories was 4.9%, or 71%, of the 6.9% Q4 GDP bottom line"
So a "stonking" Q4 GDP number of +6.9% then but that's set against real-world inflation of probably 3x that.
Moreover, 71% of that was channel-stuffed inventories that aren't being sold onto end-buyers.
This has H2 armageddon written all over it - as I suspected.
Well let's just see how long we get all that for £47m ...
US jobs/GDP numbers drop in 8 minutes - let's see what happens - watch the USDJPY too ...
@adam Sorry I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding what is going on here:
> Yes we all know AISC is high as gold output dropped at Yan, BUT actions in pace to reverse this
> Yan FCF was used to fund HUGE drilling operation taking Yan LOM from 3 to 8 years with another large tranche of drill results expected by end Mar-22 to take it well over 10 years
> Yan FCF also used to fund Kouroussa exploration, design and mine start ahead of $100m loan now partially deployed
> Dugbe = no CAPEX or OPEX costs until Pasofino get to DFS then all options available to HUM as 51% owner
In summary for £47m MCap we get:
> Operating Gold mine at Yan with 10 year+ LOM and 85koz production
> Mine Development/build at Kouroussa targeted to produce 120koz within 18 months with build started using Debt
> Exploration at Dugbe with 51% share of 3.3Moz resource and DFS expected early 2022 (Pasofino RNS Dec-21) targeting 200-250koz production
ATB APR
Bushy that's the AISC and production for the year. You need to think about how high Q4 AISC must be to drag the average up to that level. Bottom line, there's no way they have been mining the last quarter of 2021 at a profit. Sadly I can't jump in here yet as I need another company to do its thing. But Q4 will make for very heavy reading. Dan needs to go, but unfortunately Daddy has junior's back here. As I've said before, I f@cking hate trust fund babies.
We know 2021 was a difficult year, especially Q4. It is all there in black and white in prior RNS with full transparency - hence share price at current valuation. The outlook (and performance) for 2022 is what is important now with operational and political issues at the fore and how will we navigate through these turbulent times. Mine made vast money before 2021, we have nigh on 10 years worth of reserves and will no doubt return to vast money. Patience and luck, as with anything in life.
You guys are funny - keep bashing please :)
Well aisc was 1560 for 82000 ounces by 2nd week of December...
Do you actually follow this or just troll the sp?
Ok Dan - sorry BT if HUM is making money out of Yani then come up what AISC will they (you?) announce for Q4?
My money is on 1750 but I'm fearing I'm being wildly optimistic.
You see Adam, it's comments and statements like that which people think you're an absolute clueless trouser snake.
How on earth are they not making money out of Yanfolila?It paid of its debt early and is funding exploration and infill drilling across multiple jurisdictions as well as contributing to korroussa build all from exisisting cash flow.
I think on Yanf the reality is that the strip + costs, + required drilling are now CF negative. Thats what market is pricing.
Ergo - best to squeeze working cap out of easy tons at Yanf, stop drilling, plan out the most effective route to Koura production. This means a smaller company - but difficult to cut SGA when you have a weak BoD as per HUM. I have been and remain all in favour of a take out for paper or cash (or both) as Dan is done.
Desperate stuff just abandoning Yanifolila to start again. Look the open pit mine has grades of around 2 g/t. If the oafcakes can't make money out of an existing mine with decent reserves why on earth do you think they'll fare any better in the new mine?
If we are to recover at least some of our money either we accept a takeover or we get proper management.
Neither of which look likely to happen now
Its literally 100km on ok-ish roads from Yanf to Koura. I done see why one can move primary equipment like crushing circuit, the 2 mills, possibly other items. Even it saved 20 or 25m in cost, in todays money that > 50% of market cap.....which is silly but true. Seen it happen many times. I'm assuming of course that the geology and grind are similar.....which I dont know. Its a thought, as HUM is now firmly a distressed company valuation
DIM, most of the costs with building a plant is transport, labour, ground works etc etc the actual plant is all off the shelf turnkey stuff and not really that expensive compared to the sunked costs of the actual build. By the time you've stripped it, shipped it and rebuilt it, the costs saved will probably not net off the reduced effiencies incurred from wear and tear over that of a new build by that much.
I suppose you could fir in maintenance to the build schedule as it's transported in sections but then that cuts off cash flow for 12 months and then still only have 1 mine.
If yanfolila is no longer viable, which I'm not convinced that it isn't then the best thing imo would be to shut up shop and crack on with Koroussia
They have clearly taken some steps to address the operational performance. I wouldn't want Dan removed before seeing how these play out and corresponding Q1 AISC at Yanfolila. If it is another disappointment I will personally contact Ruffer et al. to see if they are prepared to support the removal of Dan. I don't think it is in shareholders interests to do this at present.