The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Ilovemycombover - a lot's to do with the spread, which varies dramatically from day to day with H&T. So whilst on paper it can look like a big rise (or fall), in practice it's a bit more smoke & mirrors. The ASK close is currently rangebound beween about 440p & 455p. Eventually it will preumably break out of this (either up or down). I too have confidence in this company, paricularly as it's in the right sector just now. So I anticipate it breaking through to 550p at some point within the next year, but that's just a guess.
Excellent results. Really can't understand why share price keeps dropping. Plus side, good for me to top up.
hardboy - indeed. Though I’m not sure broker re-ratings unduly influence yer average investor any more. Most brokers are clueless and all have a hidden agenda of sorts. But I think the share price WILL re-rate at some stage over the next year. Probably almost despite the brokers.
I agree results were in line with expectations, but at a sp of 500 the PE would be 13.5. And this for a company more than doubling profits last year and saying the opening months of this year are going even better. I'm not too worried about increasing debt - it's to open new stores and increase stock, and the payback time of such investment seems remarkably quick. I expect the broker re ratings to be generally positive. We shall see.
The results do say "These results are .... in line with current market expectations". Whilst the general outlook remains highly positive, there is reference to "supply chain pressures, higher utility bills and in particular, wage inflation". Also, pledge impairments are higher (revenue less impairment grew by almost 37%, whereas the pledge book grew by >50%), with an overall net debt position of £2.8m (2021 cash balance: £17.6m). None of these things concern me unduly, as management has traditionally kept a tight rein on costs. But they might explain why the share price hasn't raced ahead. Yet!
I guess there might be a small re-rating once the press analyses today's results. But everyone already knew they'd be good. So as I've said previously, this was largely priced in. Dividend is likely to be increased if this year continues as it's started. So worth holding just for the yield (and the low risk of any significant short term share price drop IMHO).
Make the most of it while the share price is low I suppose :)
I know. I really don't understand it. I have just topped my shares up.
Joke isn't it.
Outlook:
Trading performance continued to build steadily throughout the year, materially ahead of initial expectations. This trend has continued into the new year. January 2023 was a record month, both for lending demand and for online retail sales, the value of which reached £1m in a single month for the first time. As at the end of February 2023 the pledge book had seen further growth and stood atc. £104m. We also continue to see strong demand for our FX services. We continue to believe that FX represents a growth opportunity for the Group.
What are peeps expecting?
Yes - it's hard to know what they had to report to send the share price higher. Expect it will recover later in the week when brokers have given their verdicts.
Excellent results.
H&T will do extremely well this year as they did last. I for one, have brought loads more shares the last few days.
Simon T tipped it again -
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/02/16/2022-bargain-shares-portfolio-review/
Shore Capital is forecasting a 60 per cent higher EPS of 57.9p in 2023. Therefore, PE(f) is 7.7, offer a prospective dividend yield of 5.2 per cent. The sp is priced just above its NTA.
At PE(f) - 7.7 that is a screaming buy. Shore Cap were pretty accurate for 2022 year. No reason to disagree with them.
Even if recessionary news has temporarily receded, HAT should be trading on a PE of 10 (absolute minimum) to - 14. This was what they were historically trading at prior to the FCA incident (which affected sentiment 2018-2021, which dragged the PE down.
Based on forecast EPS 2023 of c58p -
PE (f) = 10 SP = 580p
PE (f) = 11 SP = 638p
PE (f) = 12 SP = 696p
PE (f = 13 SP = 754p
PE (f) = 14 SP = 812p
The current sp is a giveaway.
That's why I am fully loaded on this stock.
PE - 23? Someone here is wildly off.
How do you get a p/e ratio of 23
Stocko has 12.1 and 7.2 for year end 31/12/22 and 31/12/23 respectively
H&T and the "posh pawn" trend getting good coverage in the Daily Mail this weekend. Lots of bitter readers' comments at the bottom of the article!
https://tinyurl.com/3eza67p4
HAT looks way overvalued right now, with a PE ratio of 23 times. UK now looks unlikely to sink into a deep recession that requires pawnbroker salvation.
ilovemycombover - Good luck! I too have a decent holding here, though I mainly built it up a couple of years ago when the FCA investigation was ongoing, buying in at between £2 & £3. HAT is certainly in a good sector right now, though this is already known, so largely priced in. That said, I still expect the share price to test the £5.00 to £5.50 level at some stage over the next 12 months, as I anticipate another year of excellent results. At which point I'd personally be looking to reduce, as the good times never last for ever!
I have invested massively into this company recently. The shop near where I live is unbelievably busy every day with customers. I'd say one of the safest stock to buy at this current climate.
If it's happening there it must be happening or about to happen here and that can only be a good read across to HAT.
Best time to invest in H&T in my opinion. The market for this is massive. I for one will be investing a lot more.
Hardboy - Looks like we both jumped the gun slightly! Never mind, I’m still hopeful this will revisit the £5.00 to £5.50 level at some stage within the next 12 months.
I got back in today a just over 447. It looked to me as though the price drop had plateaued, so I bought and it dropped!
Bit difficult to always tell when there is a fair spread.
But all the indicators are that this business is growing profitably. and for the next few months at least should be a good place for our money.
Hardboy - you're probably doing the right thing, given that I've just bought back in! My limit buy went through at 10.44am today - 2225 shares at £4.485 each. Happy with that though. It just reinstates the value of the fractional holding I sold for £5.03 a share on 1 Dec 22. And it'll boost my final dividend payment in May. Given H&T's store expansion & the economic backdrop, I reckon it still has at least 1 years' decent growth left. But I'll be monitoring carefully, with a view to reducing again, if the share price nudges above the £5.50 level later this year.
LLoL, indeed. I think I'll watch a little longer to see it turn the corner before I add. Good luck
Hardboy - our buy target was almost hit today. Always tomorrow!