Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Credit Suisse has upgraded its recommendation for Great Portland Estates from neutral to outperform, after the real estate investment trust's (REIT's) full-year results were 'comfortably ahead' of analysts' forecasts. "With a 16 strong development pipeline with embedded profit yet fully realised, plus near-term sales at prices likely to exceed book, we believe Great Portland has the ability to deliver more alpha than the majority of its peers, particularly in the short-medium term." The target price has been raised from 398p to 440p.
Great Portland's exposure to development risk is another worry that has affected its share price. Building offices is risky because they take two or three years to complete, by which time the ever-volatile rental market may have turned. That's one reason the company's shares are hit when talk of a "double dip" recession revives. Yet in reality the risk isn't that great, because Great Portland's development programme is buttressed by so-called "pre-lets" - agreements to lease space in advance. These covered over three fifths of the space under construction in December, and management has repeatedly stressed it will not start building without a pre-let. That applies notably to 100 Bishopsgate, a conspicuous tower that has been worrying the City. Instead, the developments - with an estimated profit on cost of 48 per cent - should be a source of growth
Great Portland's latest trading update also supports a more optimistic view of the London office market than the bears would have. The company signed 35 new leases in the final quarter of 2011, nine tenths of them at rates 3.4 per cent above surveyors' estimates of rental values last March (the balance were below market rates because they included break clauses giving Great Portland the option to redevelop). That reduced the portfolio's vacancy rate to just 2.5 per cent. The vacancy rate in the West End as a whole is similarly minimal, while demand for office space is very broad. That suggests market rents will continue to rise this year, probably at about 5 per cent. Even if they don't, Great Portland's rent roll will naturally rise as leases expire because, on average, its tenants pay about 10 per cent less than current market rates. In the industry jargon, its income is strongly "reversionary".
The main reason to buy shares in offices landlord Great Portland Estates is its focus on London's West End. Property depends on finance, and currently the West End has better access to bank debt and the equity of investment funds than anywhere else in Europe. Which means that, in a climate of tight finance, Great Portland is one of the few real-estate investment trusts likely to generate meaningful growth over the next half decade. Value investors may wince at Great Portland's meagre yield. But the company doesn't just collect rent, it also has a strong track record as a developer, with four office blocks under construction and a further 18 projects in the pipeline. That means capital gains should form a substantial part of investment returns. Moreover, there's value in the current share price, after a disappointing year for shareholders. The company's stock-market value has risen just 3 per cent over the past 12 months, compared with 18 per cent for its net asset value (NAV). So the shares now trade on a 5 per cent discount to NAV, according to brokerage Jefferies, whereas shares in the other two listed West End landlords, Derwent London and Shaftesbury, trade on premiums of 6 and 12 per cent respectively. Great Portland's relative underperformance may reflect its exposure to markets outside the West End - it has a few properties in the City and Southwark. But these only make up a fifth of its portfolio. And investors' worries about City rents look overcooked: the banks may be making staff redundant, but it doesn't appear to be affecting City employment in aggregate. The number of jobs in financial and business services rose by 88,000 during the final quarter of 2011, according to official figures - the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Capital Economics, a consultancy specialising in bearish views, admits its "recent concerns that Central London office rental values could start to fall towards the end of this year may not be warranted".
Merrill Lynch reiterates underperform on Great Portland Estates, target price raised from 340p to 370p.
Great Portland Estates' (GPOR) 50% owned joint venture has pre-let 105,648 square feet of its Blackfriars Road development, in London, to media group UBM (UBM) for 4,916,000 pounds per annum over a 15 year lease. The site is expected to be completed by March 2014 and will be delivered as a shell, leaving UBM to fit it out itself. Great Portland shares dropped 13.5p to 359.4p.
Liberum Capital initiates buy Great Portland Estates, target price 374p.
Looks like Norges Bank has topped up with just shy of another million shares. Clearly bargains to be had still.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201109231410468465O
Ongoing problems in the banking sector, compounded by national debt crises, have been weighing heavily on commercial property companies in recent months, writes the Questor column in the Telegraph. However, there are one or two areas of light in the gloom. Commercial property that is in the right area, with established management and a good development programme remains attractive to tenants and to lending banks. London, and particularly the West End, where the majority of Great Portland Estates property is held, remains attractive. The company added to its development portfolio on Monday, announcing the acquisition of a 2.3-acre site in the West End for £120m. It has also finalised a £132.7m joint venture to buy two office buildings on Gray's Inn Road on the edge of the City. It may be weighed down by macro-issues but this should be offset by its own performance and sector. Buy, recommends the Telegraph.
....this one. Quality counts!
Great Portland Estates‘s assets per share were up by 27% to 360p in the year to the end of March, driven by rental growth of 10.8%, or 15.9% for West End offices, although retail lagged at 3.7%. A feature of this year’s reporting season has been strong results from Land Securities and British Land, but Great Portland has put them in the shade. The shares are not held for income, although total dividends were up from 8p to 8.2p. At 413p, up 3p last night, they are on a fully justified 15% premium to net assets and are a strong ‘hold’, says the Times.
Arbuthnot maintained its "buy" rating for Great Portland Estates (GPOR). Ahead of year-end results later in the month, the broker is still positive on the group mainly because of the business's focus on Central London offices as well as its ability to perform better than its peers. However, with the company trading at such a "significant premium", Arbuthnot believes the firm is starting to look increasingly expensive ahead of what is likely to be a fairly sanguine results season. The shares were down 12.3p to 415.5p.
This stock is bombed out and looks absolutely hopeless!
We need to see an earnings uptick or a sale of assets at reasonable prices to get this stock moving back up. They have some good properties and there are always buyers on the horizon.
So is the 340p to240p fall for GPOR due to a recent RI? Is this share worth considering ? Know 0 about it lol.
One of those rights issue days that are happening all over "Stake building was also a feature in Great Portland Estates, which closed 1.3 per cent higher at 252½p as shares began trading ex its £175m rights issue."
Can't find any news for the 26% drop today... Anyone got anything?
is sinkin fast.Time to bail out and dumpem.
Bit confused by the 'clarification' on the GPOR rights issue. Does that mean that shares bought before 4th June will qualify for the issue or do they have to be held from 19th May ?
Thanks :)
no sorry, I read the posts on the board this morning which is where I caught the bit about GPOR, sorry I didn't make that clear
Read posts this am on BIG board. As for other one - hell? LOL
Weren't these mentioned in this mornings BIG news?
RNS 7.01 Take a look at the 5 Year Slope, should beat the Bank. http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200703290701559567T