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Given Ka****su is a lot closer to Kabwe than SZ, i would make that a fair assumption.
Assuming JLP have their zinc circuit up and running towards the end of the year does anyone have any idea of the quantity of xinc they are likely to use? I'm just wondering if JLP is likely to have any interest in the end product from Ka****u?
There is no such thing as "Must" of course when it comes to shares travelling in any direction
The general trend of a placing (or new shares created and sold) though, is that the SP does tend to move towards that direction.so SF chose to agree on a 25% premium as they felt that was a fair price, and if a major felt that was a fair price then the rest of the market tends to think that also, especially when on a steady up trend like we were.....again not set in stone. So you would expect to see a rise to close that value in the re rate. I have to admit, iv seen this many times before, but only in reverse and the new shares sold at a discount. The sp has pretty much always fallen. Amount of new shares created and % difference sold obviously makes a difference as well.
Thanks WestLad,
I sort of tried to demonstrate with an example... your explanation is much better. I take the point that my 24p per share used shares already in the market.
I keep reading about the expectation that because SFR paid 2.7p for the shares then the shares must rise. Not so! The mechanics are simple:
1. 2.7p was equal to the issue of 41m NEW shares
2. The overall shares in issue have increased by 41m shares. A dilution of 4.62% according to the RNS. This subscription to NEW shares is an issue of equity via private subscription not the purchase of EXISTING shares in the market.
3. More shares in issue means a drop in overall share price - albeit minor, irrespective of the subscription price. Those shares were meant to have been admitted this morning, and i assume a confirmatory RNS is imminent.
4. It is a gigantic vote of confidence by the SFR board that they will receive a handsome return even though the paid 25% over the recent moving average for the new shares
With you on that!
I like the of all of that and if they could complete it by June I'd be happy :-)
Why has the price risen Billy from when you invested?
SF just purchases shares at 2.7p and it is still going down
I think you're all living in a dream world, the shate price os going down
Good answers all. Sometimes we can get a little caught up in wanting news now, the future doesn't get discussed much and thats where the big numbers are :-)
I too believe SFR will snap up the retained licences once we get some tasty drilling results. We just need to prove up what is actually there and add value for ourselves.
This is how i see it:
1. We will mine SZ via outsource to generate cash.
2. We will drill Ka****su, expand the resource envelope and take to a JORC estimate. Ka****su is too big for GLR, then it will be sold to someone else.
3. Glenover will be sold.
4. Sold KCB licences - thats easy, for SFR to exploit and work up
5. Retained KCB licences - we will drill, work up to an estimate, then SFR will get first dibs.
6. Africibum - we repeat KCB, helicopter survey, followed by resource estimate - target acquirer being Cupric Canyon?
7. Ferber - we will have enough cash to drill this.
Throughout this sequence, i would expect substantial dividends to be paid. In the absence of becoming a large scale miner, we would simply be sitting on too much cash for this not to happen. To get to JORC on KCB, Ka****su, Africibum and Ferber is unlikely to cost $30m, and we would be sitting on much more than that on SZ and Glenover alone.
I'm not quite sure what my opinion is on it tbf. Its at the stage now where it has historical data born from hand dug pits in the ground (these can be seen on Google maps) and has also been drilled......but with a machine that 2 people hold and has a petrol motor on the top and goes down about 5 or 6 feet ( i can't remember the name of it). From that data we know there is zinc in it. It's probably 5 years from being operationally mined.
So what will GLR look like in 5 years if the KCB goes really well. In 2 years we could have several PLs owned and not owned worth $80m each. If we merge with SF are they going to be bothered about ka****u, probably not so what happens to the other assets. if we just sell the PLs and not get bought out by SF we will have that cash in the bank. Which is huge (being glass half full with all of this), so we take our potential $160m, and do what with it. Ka****u, ferber and something new? Give the share holders some if it?
I think for now to answer your question Ella we will keep feeding all the fires that we have irons in as insurance policies. So yes more drilling on ka****u and replicate the process we went through with SZ (which was always the plan before we bought KCB). But if we are very successful in the next 2 years which I think we will be. What then.....its quite a difficult scenario, but in a good way
Assuming nothing major happens with SFR.
Hi DC,
Do you think we will progress Ka****u ourselves?
ITs hard to tell really. I think Colin has pretty much the plan in place now with regards what he intends to to, I suspect he is just awaiting signed documents here and there which is why we have radio silence. The KCB deal with Sandfire came completely out of the blue so really anything could happen, any day.
I am very happy to be invested here! We just need to be a bit more patient I think, all will become clear someday soon
Whats peoples future predictions of direction of GLR
MOD resources went from Approx $0.04 to $0.4 $100m macap in 18months/2 yrs before being bought out by sandfire at a premium for $167m
Originally I wanted the same for GLR and it looks like we are very well set for this given our mutual beneficial agreement on the PLs we just sold and the first right of refusal on the ones we haven't, plus they are wanting to be on our board of directors, which is fantastic for us. If the jewel in our Crown of KCB pls come good, why can't we do the same as MOD which is exciting to think about.
However ontop of that
Now there is a global scramble where basically anyone who isn't china is buying up rare earth assets, we might as well take our time with Glenover as it doesn't cost us anything and sell to the highest bidder (SZ operational gives us funds to take pressure off a sell of Glenover)
Ka****u, said to be 4 times the size of SZ which at todays prices contains $118m of zinc, so could that be worth 4 x more. Doubtful as it will have lesser grade ore, but if the grade is 50% on average of SZ then thats still $250m.
Ferber, still unknown and if SZ gets up and running we have the funds to find out.
So, to merge with SF or not.
Not: sell our PL'S and be incredibly cash heavy, use that cash for Ka****u, Ferber, and buy new opportunities, give share holders some dividends
Merge: sell Ka****u, ferber, Glenover and concentrate on KCB
Hybrid......... CB has alot of experience with splitting companies. So could go GLR Botswana, and GLR resources
So many options. Looking forward really to see what this year brings