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Hi Strudel
The continued going back and forth to the same led to me thinking it was reworking the water bore holes.
The northern breccia weren’t publicly known in November 19 but neither was the box cut.
The provision for another Decline to the North seems to be allowed for in the Design as a contingency.
In the original mining plan the early decline schematics showed 2 extensions from the end of the decline to the centre edge of the ovoid this has been revised due to subsequent updating of the SE crescent.
It’s all very intriguing
@Bamps
I think I've understood some of your reply...... I get the ability to increase production with two declines.
However did we even know there was a decent sized northern breccia in Nov 19? One worth putting a whole new decline into?
All very intriguing specially the number and spacing of holes drilled sporadically between Nov 19 and April 20. They kept going back, they must've found something that for their attention. Random holes further north never got the repeated scattergun drilling as a follow up (or at least not yet...)
Hi Strudel
Looking at the position of that latest pad the easterly coordinates suggest it is 1700m away from the edge of the Northern crescent
The drill length would be 3,400m .
This distance rules out the crescent, Lake Hvieron and the target on Callum screen saver.
That leaves a new target which by all things considered doesn’t look part of the plans at the moment.
Bore hole clean out is a possibility, especially if sand and clay silts are blocking it.
The other possibility is geotechnical work for planning a new decline to head for the Northern crescent.
A new decline could be a big boost for the initial production which could be increased to 4m tons.
There has always been a query on why the SE decline leaves the portal at an angle as if to leave room for another one.
Another decline at a lower depth entering the existing decline would not be able to increase the production as much.
My thoughts have always been that they will extract all the HGZ before any bulk caving commences lower down so a decline to the Northern crescent looks a good possibility.
ATB:))
Hi strudel.
Thanks for your posts.
"So are they going back to drill deeper?
Or are they going back to break off at a different angle from the point where they are through ~400m of cover?"
Probably both while they are there don't you think
....and another for the sequence of far flung west activity from 27th Nov 2019:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=-21.72047&lng=122.6323&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2019-11-27T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2019-11-27T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
It did strike me that the activity now on the 13th June radar image in this location south of the original GGP camp aligns quite precisely with one of the last locations visited in April 2020.
So are they going back to drill deeper?
Or are they going back to break off at a different angle from the point where they are through ~400m of cover?
The other curiosity, which I'm sure I noticed at the time, was all of this activity was always a good couple of hundred metres apart, and not in any kind of discernable regular pattern. I guess if you have a detailed gravity and magnetic anomoly map to hand the drilling will all be logical to those who know.
MrEMC . That will be a conservative assessment of the time it will take, giving them lee way, don't be surprised if they beat it. I am sure there will be bonuses attached for early safe completion. Imho
The Byrnecut website shows a photo of the Haverion decline and active period 2021 - 2022
https://www.byrnecutmining.com/our-projects-map/list-view/
We know work started on the decline on 12 May 2021 and website show completion in 2022 so no, not 24 months but more than 8 months.
TakingMyTime
What if Alistair Ford got a degree in Pure Mathematics?
I had to take Othello at A level bloody hard work, wouldn't be allowed these days, just like Love your Neighbour or Till death due us part, completely unpolitically correct but was accepted at the time now it's just absurd.. .blankmange now no one can have an opinions
Fedup but GLA
Thanks TMT appreciated reply.... Time will tell....
Any negative sentiment is normally not appreciated on this BB
I am simply cautious not negative.....hardly been a great 6 months ... Rup
Brabantio was a bit of a rubbish character.
My favourite is the lingerie collector in Hamlet: Fortinbras.
I'll get my coat.
Q
No worries .. we are all on the same page I think !
Hi, Tig @15.24
The last time I came across that word, was when I was teaching "Othello." "Even now, very now, an old black ram is tupping your white ewe" (Act 1, scene 1).
Best wishes.
Little crumbs .. I seriously don't think it will
Take them that long .. they could easily manage 4m per shift !
Presumably he's planning to under promise and over deliver.
I would regard more than a year a disappointing.
Q
Have traveled back through radar images and come up with the following far flung western activity, most recent back through Jan 2020. We've been here before! Lots!! First link is most recent from Sunday, the rest are April 2020 back to January. These cannot possibly all be water bole holes, or geological sterilising drills - there are too many, surely?
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72231&lng=122.63496&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2021-06-13T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2021-06-13T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72235&lng=122.63497&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2020-04-19T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-04-19T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72235&lng=122.63497&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2020-04-07T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-04-07T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72235&lng=122.63497&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2020-03-26T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-03-26T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72235&lng=122.63497&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2020-03-02T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-03-02T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72235&lng=122.63497&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2020-02-19T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-02-19T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72152&lng=122.63806&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2020-02-07T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-02-07T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72152&lng=122.63806&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Ff2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2020-01-14T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-01-14T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=7_SAR-URBAN
MrEMC that is 4m per day .. if that's all they can manage they will be getting sacked, they will do more than that in 1 shift !
@Ruprah "If NC have been buying away behind the scenes for the last 6 months could they take us out at a low value ?"
If NC have been buying behind the scenes they have acquired, at most, 10%. I seriously doubt they've acquired that much. I'm not persuaded they've been buying at all.
I bought some NCM shares at the same time I bought GGP, to mitigate the risk that they would buy us out too low. I now consider that risk minimal. I've posted before the reasons that I don't think NCM intends to buy us out. If they have been buying, it's IMO a defensive measure to make it harder for someone else to take us over, something they wouldn't want to happen.
I also think that if NCM or anyone else actually were trying to build a stake on the sly towards taking us out at a low price, there's relatively little we can do about it, except make sure they don't get our shares at least until they break cover. If one thinks that is what is happening, one would be beyond foolish to be trying to buy the dips and sell the peaks. You might end up being out of the share when they break cover and the price shoots up.
I think if NCM or someone else were to come in and offer 50p per share, there is a significant risk that enough shareholders would accept it and would therefore cut off our upside. However, I also think that for NCM (or anyone else) there would be a significant risk that it would start a bidding war. If NCM were to offer 50p to take us out, Barrick or Franco Nevada or random Ultra High Net Worth individual, or some venture capital firm, might say, "Easily worth more than that, I'll pay 60p," and then someone else 70p, etc.
NCM or whoever might have to offer as much as 75-100p to preclude that. That also would limit our upside but would perhaps not be so painful.
As usual, I've taken a lot of words, this time to say, "I'm not too worried about that."
I thought we were hoping NCM would break all records completing the decline - what's this?
"It’s expected to take around 24 months before the decline reaches the top of the orebody"
On the positive side they are not going to find the bottom of the ore body (if there is one!) any time soon so exploration results will continue to include the statement "The high grade Crescent zone remains open at depth"
Yes TMT - dectupling massively more advantageous than being decoupled I get that......
I've been here 2.5 years unfortunately NOT experienced in stock mark / AIM companies workings & 'take-overs'
Lots of folk say we are increasingly de-risked and just a matter of patiently waiting....
That makes me nervous ie. zero control.... Decoupling happens in all walks of life though
What are the chances / scenarios that we do not realise optimum value ?
If NC have been buying away behind the scenes for the last 6 months could they take us out at a low value ?
I know it has been stated this would result in bad PR with other junior explorers but if its a 30+ year mine ?
I suppose it's AIM we take the risk ..... not expecting any crystal ball answers BTW.....
I think one other point needs to be added in regard to the multiples question.
Dectupling is to multiply by a factor of 10.
One who reads quickly might read it as "Decoupling". However, a "t" is not an "o" (nor vice versa). Therefore, anyone who thinks speaking of "dectupling" is "decoupling" from reality is mistaken. The two words are not the same and therefore, one could hope for a 10-fold increase in the known size of Havieron without >necessarily< being decoupled from reality.
If reading the above has made you dumber rather than smarter, all I can say is that such things aren't unique on the Internet.
However, this brings us to another important "maths is fun" point. Dectupling, a 10-fold increase, is also known as an order of magnitude. When you multiply something by 10, you increase it by an order of magnitude. When you divide it by 10, you decrease it by an order of magnitude. By now, some of you are saying, "TMT has gone plain daft, what's he banging on about now?" The plain daft part may be right, of course. Others of you, however, might remember this quote from the Proactive article (see, I'm actually on topic!):
"Given the emergent size of Havieron, which is already pushing past 4.2mln ounces of gold, it would probably have got built anyway, but the existing plant means that the internal rate of return is going to be SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE better than it otherwise would have been." (emphasis added)
One order of magnitude would mean the internal rate of return would be 10 times better than it otherwise would have been. Two orders of magnitude would be 100 times better. "Several" usually means at least 3 or 4, which would be 1000 or 10000 times better IRR. I am sure Telfer significantly improves our IRR, but I am quite sure that it is not be several orders of magnitude.
IMO, Alastair Ford, who is undoubtedly very knowledgeable in this space, is yet obviously guilty of serious ramping here. Or maybe just no one ever told him maths is fun.
I'm not quite entirely sure I'd endorse Ford's use of "emergent" here either, but that's not maths, and I'll let Impecunious2 speak to that if he wishes.
:) very happy with the article, it just confirms what PADDYGALE has been saying for years now.
still sitting on my hands and looking forward to the end game.
Naughty tigger
@@@CJMorley. I would have thought that in this company , you would have got the spelling right.
Sextupping .
Tig
@@@ TMT - Always an honour to have fellow erudite and scholarly posters on this board, to help the ageing and the only partially mathematically bequeathed.
Once we have arrived at the appropriate level ,I will refer back to your post to ensure I select the correct multiplier.
Hopefully it will be my Xmas present to myself this year.
Tigqupling