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all the ducks lining up..
next week will be exciting for sure
expect 30p before results then
the skys the limit
You were nearly right Pete the copper works out to be around 8.4m oz eq not tons @$7,400pt (@ $9400 the eq value is a lot higher)
''+ 9 m tons copper Petejh Bit rampy... That would be about $85 Billion without the gold...''
Ha! My bad, nine hundred thousand tons. With the copper I really should have sanity-checked the figure before posting. Something that a few people on here would benefit from doing.. ;)
Love it spy
I bought this on gut feeling thats all - seems they have a big gold mine. Same will UFO but i looked into it very good serious bargain - I only intended to buy bank share first time up over 100k - its flying up again
silverhorse..
FBS - GGP would suit you perfect for trading - i could of sold 3 times buy back same price net gain 3k - it keeps hitting 24p back down 20-21p - its going to burst up over 27p next then likely back to 23p.. Good luck with that silver
Haha silver funny, big weeks ahead in both
Its unbelievable UFO under 1p am so certain its going to 4p - I only pick winners!
Silver as you are also invested in ufo ill give you a heads up, When this breaks you can forget going to
27p a retrace to 23p,
Looking very positive - million % over 24p
we need to quickly move past berenberks 26p and keep moving to the previous 33p.
if they update the MRE next week to anything near 7+ I would no be surprised to see 40-50p get torn up fairly rapidly.
Zoros, again I'm not trying to make the point that we weren't all aware of the potential and probability for growth of Havieron towards 20m ozs and beyond.. in fact probably far beyond when you factor the copper.
The point is.. that 20m ozs had not been made implicit in the analysts' assumptions until that update. Growth was only assumed, not how much. Now, since the January note, 21m ozs (+ 9 m tons copper) is implicit.
So, for the more sophisticated investor that opens up avenues of enquiry about future share price/market cap based on cash-flow from the size of resource. One thought being, GGP's 30% share is based on 30% of 4.5m ozs in the HG crescent zone, and 30% of 16.6m ozs being in the bulk cave Breccia zone. The ozs in the crescent will shortly - i.e. within view of the market's 12 to 18-month look-ahead - be into production and generating cash flow, whereas bulk cave ounces will be a relatively long time coming and not generating cash flow in the near term future.
Another logical follow-on to the narrative implied by the H&P note is that if and when (and I think when) the N.W. crescent proves up to be another few million ozs of high grade gold/copper similar to the S.E. crescent, and this is added to the DCF mix it changes the DCF outlook for free cash flow to the upside.. This in turn hopefully leads to GGP's future cash flow looking a lot more rosy instead of H&P's currently forecasted 5 years of negative cash flow while it pays its share of the capex for building the block cave in addition to the ongoing SLC, to access the 16m ozs ounces contained within the Breccia.
Following on from that picture, it seems there's possibly a large discount being applied by H&P for the 5 years negative cash-flow in the near-term, until block caving commences in the long term.
Therefore, any alteration to that narrative - i.e. accelerated build-out of the block cave, or confirmation of another zone of HG ozs in the NW crescent - currently excuded from valuation; then these have potential to act as a large catalyst for the share price. At the moment still a lot of unknowns.. hence the risk implied by H&P.
Just my musings.. based on the logic on the cash-flow predicted by the 21m ozs split between the near-term HGZ and the long-term Breccia.
Fair enough Zoros but another view is always welcome !
Thank you zoros for replying to my post.
Jaguar - Everyone's research is appreciated, of course it is. But if you look back over the last 20 posts, Paddy has already stated he's done the maths on this note, Bamps has too. I did it when the note came out...those who have already done their homeowrk quietly in the background...know that "at today's estimate", there is roughly 15 to 20Moz gold in the ore body that has been drilled and reported.
It isn't new news!
Calm down, eh. Relax...we are on the same side after all.
Z
davidimus. They have derived 30p from the last MRE(inferred). The rest is speculation which is why they haven't actually quaoted "20Moz" anywhere in their note. Most researchers expect the 4.2EqAu to jump to somewhere around 5-7Moz when the next MRE(indicated) comes out very soon, but this is for the SE Crescent and breccias. Eventually there will be another MRE(inferred) for the NC and breccias and eventually an MRE(Indicated for the lot. Then we will be closer to the 15Moz(paddy calc) or 20Moz(pete calc). This is when the suggested broker figure of 66p comes in.
Z
Zoros if everybody knew about it why weren't they shouting about 21m Oz .it's good that Pete did his own research and I got one appreciate it .. maybe you should too !
Great research.
ONwards and upwards as the Ducks continue to line up for a super exciting 6-18m.
Nice to see its a little more Civil in here today.
Best of the best to all.
DUCKS DUCKS DUCKS
Thanks Pete
Jaguar - I've looked at his link. It is old news. Why has this been frothed over?
The 20Moz pete refers to is the life long recovery figure for the entire motherlode. Surely we all understand this. Out of that we have an inferred MRE of 4.2 EqAu currently.
The note has been available to one and all for months??
I was under the impression pete had found a more recent note.
I don't understand why you have flashed up over this. But save me the explanation.
Z
Paddy,
Their DCF adds up to 17.8million ounces gold recovered, when you add up the gold produced per annum. Which is 85% recovery of 21.1 million ounces.
That's using: 13 years x 669.5 kozs per year, and 11 years x 543 kozs per year. Plus the years up to 2030.
Zoros it's on an earlier post! Why do people have to criticise someone who comes on and gives facts as he see them .. look at the note he is talking about and if you don't agree with his figures, come back with your own to prove it either way ... sometime this board is so fu**ed up it's sickening !
What would interest me, if anyone is able to extract or summarise the DCF calculation, is how Hannam get from 21.1Moz + Cu to 30.1p. Cheers.
petejh - can you send me the hannam note link plz?
Z
Well everyone can just look over petejh posting history and make their own minds up hey, plenty will now be watching out for tell tail signes