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Hi EE,
Excellent posts, for sure our GDR SP will not be waiting until October to recover !
This must be a record, 70 chats versus 22 trades in the first 2 hours...
Ethio
Spot on and summarised in your one line:
"Your projections are YOUR projections. Not GDR's"
He was guessing before and got it wrong and now he's guessing again .... you know the rest.
And that is one of the reasons I believe it will take longer to realise SP potential here. As there is so much crap, simply it is going to take longer to get in front of people and make the sells.
If you think the NHS comms on crowdcity are a business deal then I dont know what to say.
Business is not done on a public forum. They may well buy, but those comms are not an indicator.
My predictions are my own, of course. That goes without saying. But your flu season piece ties in again with my October predictions. Just say it Ethio, you believe our sp heights wont be revisited until October again either.
I can't see the government doing another national lockdown, economically we will still be paying off the first round of JRS, grants, loans & payment holidays for years to come. Although I agree it should be done to save as many lives as possible and not to overwhelm the NHS, we're already crippled economically, tens of thousands of job losses with more to come I'm sure and who knows what Brexit holds.
In my opinion it will be a mixture of local lockdowns with test, trace & isolate. TEST being the key for a GDR shareholder.
Lp160606
DB made it clear to us that approvals have taken a bit more than they anticipated.
We can all see there is so much rubbish test kits out there. Just see how many are being rejected , in india and all over.
Regulators now have to test your test kit before the green light. For ncyt, this was not the case.
Many companies are trying to exploit the opportunity with cr@p tests that do not work. Which basically means , for a Gold standard test kit like GDR, its harder as they have to join the queue.
Why do you take a look at the comms between DB and NHS. NHS is now on the last step and will buy GDR kits. News on that can also drop anytime.
Your projections are YOUR projections. Not GDR's. When the flu seasons comes, the economy will be hit massively because people wont know if what they have is flu or CV19. Only way to clear that will be using quick tests. GDR will do just fine. Its a waiting game.
Btw I do agree with you there Ethio.
If bumper sales are announced this will absolutely rocket fro. Current sp.
Btw I do agree there Ethio. With such a low Mcap, if fantastic sales are announced this will shift upwards very quickly.
bigAl - exactly
He failed to consider that almost all covid stocks are behind us. We have a working tested product. Others are still making theirs and will have to wait for approvals just like us.
He also forgot to mention we have a very low MC and can go up 30% in a day. I was here when GDR did 6 blue days one after another. 30%, 25% a day.
We are an approval away from selling millions.
Sure DB may have applied for approvals much earlier, may be and comms could have been better.
BigAl,
I do think we will see significant sales before October. But they will fall below my previous expectations. A month ago I had forecast 60m in sales before the end of the year.
I think it will take longer than many here think to get back to those heights. And a wave of sentiment, in my view, will be our method of transport as well as some ok ish sales figures.
@ethio things are a bit different, you're right. DB failed to announce sales and as such our current sp reflects the markets view on the capability to commercialize at GDR.
Please share any insight on India and their testing structure and strategy as always open to learning something new -but I'm not sure you can offer that. Happy to be proved wrong though.
I'm being conservative. gdr have failed on June sales. I'm yet to see in black and white a PO. Once this takes place my view may change. In is now middle of July and I'm hearing excuses on sales due to approvals.
Let's see where we are in 2 weeks time.
'IMMEDIATELY'
Hi Lp,
I understand your view that the hype drove COVID SP's higher during the peak of the Furlough period.
This hype was built on sentiment, not on results i.e. Approvals and Sales.
We all know the GDR SP has fallen from these highs due to NO confirmed Sales - BUT we also know many sales have been negotiated, and will be progressed once Approvals fall in place, and these Approvals will happen.
Even if Approvals take until early August, (And I expect Approvals before early August), it will not take until October for Significant Sales to be confirmed, and our SP to IMMEDIATLEY rocket, IMO.
Go on GDR,
another 55 days at 1.5p increase and I will be at break even!!!
Lp160606
DB originally estimated us having approvals and hence sales end of June.
Things are a bit different now and it has taken a bit longer. India can drop anytime.
For you to suggest oct, it says you have now sold and are looking for a cheap entry below 60s which won't happen
or you are a real id10t. On approvals to India, a country with billions of people and in desperate need to test kits, the SP
will be back in the 1s. Either stop deramping your stock or keep it up as you may get that 60 entry.
You're guessing, with no facts, and you've already stated you're looking to buy lower.
Transparent.
Please read my post. I did state 'I'm sure there is lots going on in the background we are not privy to but comms are poor'
Happily hear your view. Why not debate me.
Please tell me why you believe this is wrong.
BigAl/Technik
My view is this.
Our tech team are extraordinary. They've developed a gold standard test that is ripe for supporting governments worldwide in the identification and fight against Covid. However, we are limited due to the maturity of the sales effort thus leading to a stuttered start in the EU. 0 feedback since sending out our tests. As we await approvals I believe we will continue to drift. Through the research I've done I believe these approvals will land in early August (could be wrong but I think I'll get my target top up). India will be first, then FDA, followed by WHO. Once all are in our sales efforts will go forth and multiply. Gdr comms and walbrook do not lead me to believe these approvals are imminant.
All covid stock highs were met at the the height of our uk lockdown where sentiment was extremely strong.
And it will be during our 2nd imposed lockdown this winter, that the true value will be reached. I see that as 350-400 (seems a pipe dream right now). Maybe higher if we exceed sales targets and land a uk deal..
So yes I see supreme value In this stock and will be topping up when the opportunity presents itself. I'll be here for the medium term for sure. And I'll continue giving my view as I see it. Whether that is negative or positive.
I do believe questions need to be asked of DB and in my view he is running out of time to deliver some sales. I'm sure there is a lot going on in the background that we are simply not privy to but comms are poor.
MMs are trying to establish where the price is, are there more people bailing or more people accumulating... SP this morning seems to suggest the later
No recovery till October? You fkn kidding me?? Utter BS. I am hoping for news in weeks and sp to be around £2. For now if we starve the fkn mms by not buying any shares, they will either keep sp at 70 or take it higher to lure buyers. Let's play them for once...
No way will we have to wait till October.... News could drop anyday and turn this around and back past the £ in the blink of an eye.
exactly @bigAl, it's ridiculous to say October unless LP knows those things won't happen, in which case I agree, but I don't
Lol yes technik, quite right.
@LP I'm ok with you disagreeing, my thoughts are around market cap and future value and I agree the delay in approvals has caused thin trading which has caused the drop, but inherently I think the value for the business is much higher hence I'm buying back in whilst the sell off is happening into no news flow. Fundamentally there is not change here to warrant the lower share price, my opinion which I'm backing up with more buying.
Hi LP,
Good to read all view points.
With your belief that the GDR SP will not recover until October - does this include imminent Approvals received? Substantial Orders confirmed ? - way before October.