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Beetaloo, without any real confirmations of exactly what is going on at the Kyalla 117 well site -- we don't know if Origin will close up the Kyalla well temporarily (until the rainy season ends) or continue with efforts to clear the heavy salty water over the entire rainy season. However, given the mismanagement by Origin so far -- I am expecting them to cut the number of workers to the bare minimum on site by temporarily shutting the Kyalla 117 well and hope there is no permanent damage when they open up again in April.
The best we can guess at right now is Origin is currently either trying to make a wise decision and get a coil tubing and nitrogen injection company onto the Kyalla well site, or alternately sticking their head in the sand and hoping the well clears itself in the next few weeks?? If the Kyalla 117 doesn't clear and significant amounts of dry and wet gas begin flowing in the next few weeks -- then it is very likely that Origin will look closely at shutting that well in until next April, when the rainy season ends, and then finally do what they should have done four weeks ago -- which is to bring in the coil tubing and nitrogen team to hopefully clear that well bore so the gas can flow. The Kyalla 117 well is the most expensive well in Australian history, and the data clearly shows that the reservoir holds good levels of dry and wet gas, -- so they won't permanently shut that well until they have exhausted most every option for achieving flow rates.
If Origin doesn't get off it's rear end and get a coil tubing and nitrogen team on site immediately -- then the 60 to 90 flow testing won't be completed until almost July of 2021. Since there won't be any final decision on a 3 km horizontal from the existing Kyalla well pad until after the current flow testing is complete, (or a new shorter horizontal at the Velkerri wet site) --- this ridiculous delay on coil tubing could result in any flow testing on the next exploration well being extended into in 2022. Without Origin correcting this massive mistake in well completion immediately -- the completion timing and costs on the next exploration well will go up significantly.
hello everybody,
unfortunately, I am not a native speaker, so I do not always understand the various publications 100%. My question: should the borehole be closed temporarily or possibly forever? I think there are different formulations here in the different publications of the past days .. or I got it wrong :-(
Thanks for a short help.
LK, I am totally on board with you in them selling a portion off, I think it will go a long way in boosting our stock price. This whishy washy approach to drilling is maddening.
Newt,
I hear what you’re saying re POQ not being an oil and gas man. I’m not convinced he’s a great executive manager or negotiator because I haven’t seen that. I do know that if I was POQ and I was speaking to origin before this well started would have been asking questions like;
How long should this take?
How long could it take?
What could go wrong?
What is our response to each of these things that could go wrong?
Is there anything we can do to make sure this project is not delayed further?
Is there anything else you need to make sure we’re successful here.
Etc etc.
Green,
Well it sounds like origin is looking at getting rid of some of their piece. I would be thrilled to see them sell 28pct of theirs and us sell all of ours to a big time operator. That way origin still has a chunk of what has always supposed to be a profitable long term asset but no responsibilities to get it done. Let’s do it now!
Darnit, I have said it from the day we relinquished control of this play, NO ONE will buy our 22.5$% share of this play as it sits. We will either be picked up sometime by Origin at bargain basement price, which will be years away, or sold as a package with Origin to a bigger player! With Origin in charge they could drag this out as long as they feel, do we have any time boundaries, I dont know. We are all in the dark.
fluers,
No matter who owns the 22% FOG currently owns, they will be in the same position as FOG as a minority shareholder sitting in the backseat as the clown bus drifts down the highway. The only way a new owner of the 22% could be in the drivers seat is if they negotiated a breakout of 22% of the entire prospect and then set off E&Ping on their own. Frankly, at this point I'd think Origin would be very receptive to this arrangement as they have demonstrated rare and unique talent to not only spend years trying to drill a one month TD well, but they have done so in a model of bureaucratic excessiveness.
Maybe / Probably covered before. But can the remaining 22.5% be sold to any bidder or does it have to go to Origin. Perhaps POQ touting FOG around could make ORIGIN focus and get a move on or get us out. Is the delay a tactic beIng used by ORIGIN to make sure FOG run out money quicker and then negotiate another grab % of our holding. Slow Sunday and a beer too many but this holding has driven me potty for too long.
Longknife, I am sure that POQ had input over the past year, but that would not have included very much by way of gas well completions. POQ is not an oil and gas engineer, but rather a skilled executive manager and negotiator. POQ would have left the minute details of gas well completion to the so-called experts at Origin and their outside contractors.
With Covid restrictions in place -- POQ has not even been in Australia since last year. Therefore, POQ has not been at the Kyalla 117 site with all the fracking and completions taking place, and would be relying on Origin's engineers along with their contractors expertise on how to get the Kyalla 117 flowing properly. It is Origin who is entirely to blame for this stunning error of not having a company like Condor Energy on stand-by for the coil tubing and nitrogen injection that Origin used successfully at the Amungee well -- (and having to use this completion tech once already in the Beetaloo -- should absolutely have been ready to do so again).
Newt, so you don’t think that during the theee years that this well was in planning that POQ had any input? The last farm out was less than a year ago. That he couldn’t have said, “hey let’s plan for all contingencies? Like anything that happened at the Amungee well? Why someone didn’t think of that idk. Frankly NO options should be awarded this year. I seriously can’t think of anything POQ does that requires a FT job?! His only job is to sell this co at a decent price. I could have given away the co piece by piece to fund operations.
Camelot1 --- not too sure how many stock options are being awarded for no progress this year, but can tell you categorically that the incompetence of not having the coil tubing and nitrogen program ready at the Kyalla 117 (that was used successfully at the Amungee well completion) had absolutely nothing to do with POQ and the stock options. The decision to not bring in the coil tubing and nitrogen was entirely an Origin decision -- so has nothing to do with any upcoming stock options at Falcon.
Oleo...you ask the million dollar question? In my opinion it's all about making sure that some get their stock options awarded on the 10th at low prices...pure slime...and it just shows a complete lack of regard for us long suffering shareholders who deserve better. NOTHING BUT GREED HERE
Swabbing or lifting a well is no big deal at all. It is a standard job routine for small money worldwide, and should including the Beetaloo.
The real question is: why do we see this hesistant delay
It send a message to the company and tell them to get their sales people calling Origin if they have available resources.
Great to see so many offering their advice to Falcon and Origin , did either of them get to where they are on the advice of PIs advice, its a few weeks until Christmas , and we are still well and truly in a pandemic , perhaps if we take stock of exactly where we are at ,and be grateful it is going to be a good well , whenever it happens , one my dad told me a long time ago " the more hurry the less speed " GLA jfh
Thanks tnbird -- done already. I will most likely send the same to Tracey Boyes who is Origin's General Manager for the Beetaloo development -- just so they know that there is allot of shareholders hoping to hear something positive on the tubing and nitrogen front before the rains make it impossible this year.
Newto........Email the link to POQ with a little note.......hey, just across the way is this resource to step in rapidly for the coil tubing necessary for now rather than next April........... :-)
We got 2 uncertainties here now (as I interpret it):
1) can we be sure that the operator applies the best workflows, work programs to get the optimum
2) is the water saturation of the reservoir too high or not
Alternately, Origin can shut in this $60 million dollar well and hope that nothing goes wrong over the next five months, AFTER they confirmed they recovered the recoverable pumped and spent frac fluid.
With 500 bbl/d or less I think no. I think it could be that only the spent frac fluid from the stage with the reservoirwater source has flowed back from the heel part of the horizontal well section. Could be that the other stages are still full of spent slowly aging frac fluid, creating a waterblock and damage for some potential gas deeper in the reservoir.
Or the other scenario: they have sampled the reservoir water with too small gas bubbles and no hydrocarbon condensate. And Org assesses the situation so pessimistic that they want to give up but want to tell it us in about 5 months because they do not want to tell us this now.
Well stated......Newto, well stated
The following full service company is located in Brisbane -- and Origin needs to get them moving with coil tubing and nitrogen trucks towards the Beetaloo IMMEDIATELY -- as it is only a 40 hour drive by car, so easily done in three to four days by truck.
Looking through their comprehensive website -- this company has more than enough coil tubing and nitrogen equipment, along with the expertise to move quickly onto the Kyalla 117 well site within a week's time which would allow the flow testing to get somewhat back on track over the rainy season. Alternately, Origin can shut in this $60 million dollar well and hope that nothing goes wrong over the next five months as they all go on holiday time -- the fffin idiots.
https://www.condorenergy.com.au/services
https://www.condorenergy.com.au/services
thank you newtofo
Beetaloo, I am fairly sure that OrsonModesto is like most of America right now -- and that is either with family for Thanksgiving or travelling to and from. I believe that we will hear some of Orson's thoughts on the recent failure of Origin to be ready with nitrogen and tubing at the Kyalla site once he is back home. I posted the following (below) on Wednesday for Orson to get Orson's input on the current situation. I am very concerned that delaying the tubing and nitrogen procedure until April, (followed by the 60 to 90 flow test before any decision is made on drilling the next well) will put us right back in this same position of no flow results on the next well until 2022.
Orson, if you are checking the board today -- I know that many of us would really appreciate your thoughts on today's press releases from Origin and POQ.
The fact that Origin was not prepared (and still isn't) to bring in the tubing and nitrogen that is now required to help lift the frack fluids and heavier saline waters from the Kyalla 117 well bore is a major disappointment. This is especially true given the fact that the Amungee well required the same tubing and nitrogen procedure -- so why heck wasn't a tubing and nitrogen supplier at least on a retainer -- if not already on site just in case? This Kyalla 117 is the most expensive well in Australian history -- so how much would the added cost have been just to be ready for this procedure -- even if it ended up not being required?
Do you think that since the weather is currently hot and dry at the well site -- that Origin or POQ can get the tubing and nitrogen procedure organized with the necessary equipment moved to the Kyalla 117 well pad in the next few weeks -- before the rainy season makes the road in too difficult? The Kyalla 117 well pad was built to operate over most of last year's wet season -- so if they can get the tubing and nitrogen equipment on site in the next few weeks -- then there is a chance that all the well clean up and flow testing can continue over their summer months and maybe we don't lose another half a year to this incompetence??
as a long-time reader and shareholder
it would be a shame losing valuable posts valuable writer.
@ Orson: therefore I would wish to read about you