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Let’s say we want to invest £10k and need to decide whether to invest in fogl or fkl for the maximum end profit. £10k of fogl shares currently at £2 = 5000 shares. £10k of fkl shares currently at £5.35 = 1880 shares fogl shares rise from £2 to £10 fogl shares now worth 5000 x 10 = £50,000 fkl holding: fkl has a current mkt cap of £48m the 12m fogl shares it owns are now worth 12m x £10 = £120m but we must deduct the current £2 value of fogl shares currently in the fkl sp = £24m so nett value of fogl shares = £96m (without the fogl shares fkl shares would be ca. £2 - £3) The new mkt cap of fkl = £96m + £48m = £144m Fkl has 9m shares in issue so new fkl sp = £144m / 9m = £16 You own 1880 fkl shares so your holding is worth 1880 x £16 = £30,000 = quite a big difference from 5k fogl shares = £50,000 Now depending on what fkl management decides to do with the money: If they decide to invest in the oil industry infrastructure (homes, warehouses etc), this will require substantial capital investment, which in the end might have a nett return on investment of, say, typically 5%. I doubt if the sp would hold up at £16 in such circumstances. More than likely it would drop substantially (imo), let’s say to £8 - £10. Your 1880 shares would now be worth iro £15k - £19k. Naturally, the company has many options, eg a special dividend to return the profits money to shareholders or just sit on the capital or invest in real earner elsewhere. Dividends: current dividends will be microscopic because nothing has changed as far as profitability goes, so the company cannot really increase the divi as its profits come from logistics, fishing squid and its art business. Nothing has happened yet in the oil industry, and in any case a lot of investment cash is needed for such an enterprise. I am not an economist, so any criticism of my calculations is welcome, and the last thing I want to do is deramp the stock. As always said, I know fkl is a good company – I only want to clarify so people will not be misguided by dreams of great wealth! GL all!
All inputs are needed, the more ideas the better imo. It would be interesting if someone could get to the agm in September to ask what plans they might have (if not mentioned) for using the fogl money should it be a success. Anyone interested in fkl should make a point of reading the company's business on its website. It's not an "oily" company like fogl itself - dyor, gl all, have a nice weekend, boating or otherwise! L GL all!
Good to hear to some confidence on this share. I've been getting a bit jittery of late with the whole BP thing. Also I could possibly be a tad over exposed on this share after taking an arse kicking on NTG. Thankfully got out before the recent capitulation. This feels like the right share to be in though so lets hope my blind faith and your impressive maths add up to a bright future eh?
If / when , "FOGL" strike Oil resulting in a "FOGL" s/p increase from appprox £2 (for example) to approx £10+ , then this would translate (£8 x 1.319 = £10.55p value increase for each "FKL" share) £10.55p + £543.5p. ="FKL" s/p@ £15.985p approx (imo) ------- this calc makes no provision , for enhanced value that thier other assets will acquire ( as all Oil monnies start to impact values) , as you say , they may use "FOGL" (if successfull) profits to develope thier other asset positions ,in this scenario there would be even further added value to the Funds released , from a succesfull "FOGL" investment . (imo) --------- yeah , im very comfortable here at "FKL" , & today have increased my "FKL" shareholding by 62.5% . , ----- crusing , im a patient man , all in good time . ;0) BW Wraith
OK, thanks dude,
JJ seem to remember you've just got L2, can you see anything on recent buys / sells there? I have L2 but not in the office. I may set up some buy orders in case this happens again although this may have been instantaneous... or a mistake.
Is showing a low for the day of 445
Just checked my iphone (15 min delay) and seen the price 445p. Dashed to TDW to try and buy and the price is now547p. Anyone see the drop?
If you read my earlier posts on this bb, the answer is fairly obvious if you think they will strike oil in the east/southern Falklands, ie buy the "engineer", viz, fogl. Without the fogl oil dear old fkl is but a small trading coy, albeit, it will make a bob or two out of the oil business scenario. All inputs welcome to my comments. been with fkl for nigh on 20 years now!
Don't knw which to get involed in FOGL or. FkL got a very. Nice profit in RKH which I got at 55p thinking ov top slicing. But. Which one do I go 2. Any ideas please
Excellent mathematics, but (don't want to be a jona) the money will go into the company as a whole, and probably will not follow your mathematical logic. If FIH wants to take advantage of any opportunities, they will need cash, and some of that would come from the fogl profits. Might even be a rights issue too, eventually, but naturally, all this will will add value to the coy, and the sp.
FOGL is heavily involved with BHP Billiton, so one can imagine they could be the leading coy in the infrastructure set up should the venture take off. FIH has the local contacts and are interested in building houses, supplying general stores and shipping transport services. In their recent annual reports FIH do mention they have strong competition in these areas though. FIH makes its money from supplying the islands general requisites through its store. It used to have the one hotel, but sold it recently, and there is the squid fishing, which is sometimes good, sometimes not so good, It has branched out into other ventures in the UK - an art exhibition company Momart which is quite profitable, and Portsmouth habour ferry company, which is paying its way. And that's it - apart from its Fogl holding. They once thought there was gold in them thar hills, but that came to nil. It's a steady coy, with sound management, so no doubt they will take advantage of anything sensible within their scope. Incidentally, I got my FIH shares from the Coalite/Anglo United break up in 1993. Have fun watching the sp! L
Thought this link might make interesting reading while you are all slavering at the mouth waiting for your hoped for profits.. .Company profile – History The Falkland Islands Company (FIC) was incorporated in 1851 and received its Royal Charter on 10 January 1852. Established with an authorised capital of £100,000 its purpose was to engage in agricultural and general trading activities including establishing a shipping link with the UK... http://www.fihplc.com/companyprofile/index.php?section=1&sub=2
Hope we find the same success here as RKH. I was too slow on following my own tips and got in here just a tad above todays price.. Not to worry, it will come good, for that I am sure. GL and happy cruising.. ;-))
great post! you never let me down, keep up the good work. BW lee!
Yeah , nice little company this , a Diamond set in the middle of four Sappires . ------ With just 9,097,178 shares in issue , & only 7,759,893 available ( 14.7% are not in public hands ) to public , also Profitable & paying a Divi .------ sitting on 12,000,000 "FOGL" shares at Zero Cost to the company , the Managment having reduced (sold 3,000,000 "FOGL" shares , realizing Net Proceeds of £3.6m) prudently , from an original position of 15,000,000 "FOGL" shares Costing £2.5m ( purchased s/p@16p) , -------- now with each 1 "FKL" share representing 1.319 "FOGL" shares approx .----- Therefore if "FOGL" strike Oil (commercial) , for each £1 "FOGL" shares rise , logically "FKL" shares should rise £1-319p approx , from thier respective current s/p levels . ---------- also with realestate & land positions they are sitting on in the Falklands , the 38 acre ( Dairy Paddock) site , for 350 homes awaiting development , being one that spings to mind , amongst thier various positions, so this potential will need to be factored into the s/p aswell , when any significant commercial Oil strikes are made , by one or more of the explorers?------- we already have Sealion & the North looking very positive , if the South Strike Oil as well , & we get the Big Oil money moving in , the Falklands economy will Skyrocket , with "FKL" positions increasing to appropriate levels.(imo) -------------- this is my take on "FKL" , & some of the reasons why i have taken a position here at "FKL" today . BW Wraith
i look forward to reading your posts!
Myself joined you here today , moving some "RKH" & "FOGL" Profits into "FKL".-- BW Wraith
I think I am getting old bob and my brain is going! In need of a holiday, I think. Now the memory penny has dropped. It wasn't clear why Mrs T went to war with the argies at the time, and the fkl chairman clearly knew a bit more about it than she let on. A bit off-topic, but I recall sitting with my mum watching the tele when the Fleet set off for the Falklands on that grey morning. It was a very sombre, moving moment, and one I will never forget. My mum went to the drawer and brought out a diary which she gave to me to read. It was written by her father as he went to the Gallipoli campaign in WW1. It was a vivid description of those events. He wrote how he was pinned down with bullets flying everywhere... that was the last entry. My mum felt that the stain on the diary cover was his own blood. She never, ever saw her father, and has been sad about it all her life. Perhaps this, and the trauma of our lads fighting to recover the islands, is why I feel so nostalgic about fkl and proud to have a fews shares in the company.
This will depend of course on whether any commercial finds happen to be exploited by utilizing FPSOs or Platforms. Platforms will require much more than FPSOs in terms of pipelines, pumping stations, oil and gas terminals etc etc. What they will both need are helicopters, supply ships, docks with heavy cranes, catering, chemicals of various types. These will require service companies that will in turn require industrial sites. I believe FKL are in possesion of a large acreage of land for this very use. Very limited shares in this company and still a steal at these prices, should this all prove commercial. GL all holders.
Nice to see someone finally gets where I was coming from in my post on 13th Jan. When the oil is found they will come, Not exactly rocket science ;-) This is one to sit on and check every few weeks, I was lucky, I did think I jumped in far to early (polotics with the Argies unknown etc), I don't hold many but glad I hold More greenhouses to follow GL ALL
The Falklands War was in the early 80s not the 90s! As oil is probably discovered in big quantities expansion of infrastructure will inevitably be required . Who will benefit financially out of this expansion and what roll do FKL play in this? Any ideas i don't know anything about FKL and it's interests/roll in the Falklands economy at present. Any ideas how FKL will benefit?
a share for a 3k shares buy reported today as a late trade from the 19th May
better port and storage facilities, more permanent housing and shopping stores perhaps, plus your comments - what else can one do on a mine strewed, wind-blown freezing island.
when and if one of the oilys start production what sort of infrastructure and services will the islands need to have in place. please, no mention of lapdancers/burger bars/1 hour motel rooms!