Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II): Company: First Derivatives (FDP:LN) Last TGISVP Post: Here Market Cap: GBP 494 Million Price: GBP 2,038p ….. (GBP 0.517 Adj Dil EPS * 20.0 P/E + (117 M Rev * 1.33 P/S + 15.1 M Cash + 23.1 M Debt Adjustment * 50%) / 24.2 M Shares) / 2 = GBP 893p Again, First Derivatives looks massively over-valued. Which reflects the fact it’s one of those stocks where investors will inevitably have a totally binary posi itive/negative perspective, depending on which figures & accounting statement(s) they focus on – not unusual for a serial acquirer. As long as revenue (& earnings momentum) is maintained, growth investors will ignore anaemic cash flow, potentially fudged accounting, dilution, any potential increases in leverage, and keep buying at almost any price…the optimistic outcome is for FDP to eventually grow into its valuation. On the other hand, if something goes horribly wrong here, and/or investors’ expectations are dashed, my new fair value may end up looking pretty generous for what could become a pariah stock… Price Target: GBP 893p Upside/(Downside): (56)% — For related links/graphs/files, and more TGISVP analyses/price targets, see: https://wexboy.wordpress.com/2016/05/30/2016-the-great-irish-share-valuation-project-part-ii/
2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II): Company: First Derivatives (FDP:LN) Last TGISVP Post: Here Market Cap: GBP 494 Million Price: GBP 2,038p My last write-up was bang in the middle of a sickening price reversal. While FDP got nearly sliced in half at the time, my price target’s been massively adrift ever since. Clearly, I was wrong to speculate FDP’s consulting business* might eventually grind to a halt – as banks continue to retrench, we’re actually seeing an increasing reliance on IT outsourcing, while reduced head-count & market evolution demanded ever greater technology capacity & automation. [*Let’s not forget consulting (64% of revenue) remains FDP’s primary business, and its margins are far less scale-able than software]. And revenue’s continued to forge ahead, at an average 28% pa in the last three years, assisted by FDP’s serial acquisition strategy (three new acquisitions & a consolidation of Kx Systems in the last 18 months, or so). Earnings growth trailed though, as FDP essentially bought revenue/technology (rather than profits…with new Big Data & IoT opportunities also being touted) & the share count’s been diluted almost 25% in the last couple of years. [Even on a revenue basis, those acquisitions look damn expensive – averaging over 7 times sales, vs. a 4.2 P/S multiple for FDP]. But FY-2016 was clearly a real gang-busters year, boasting 41% revenue & 33% EPS growth. However, we’re still seeing a huge disconnect between EBITDA & operating free cash flow margins (Op FCF: Operating cash flow, less net PPE/intangible expenditure). But presuming software is the ultimate driver of the business, EBITDA will become increasingly relevant: A decent compromise for now is to use an adjusted margin, averaging the latest 19.9% EBITDA margin & Op FCF margin of 7.2% (noting a prior year margin of just 2.6%) – a 13.6% adjusted margin deserves a 1.33 Price/Sales ratio. And noting FDP’s financial strength (with net debt of just £15 million), we can adjust for (surplus) cash & also add a debt adjustment. [Based on this adjusted margin, I calculate another £23 million in debt (at an assumed 5% rate, for acquisitions etc.) would still limit finance expense to 15% of adjusted margin – as usual, let’s apply a 50% haircut, just to be conservative]. Of course, we also need to value FDP as a growth stock: While earnings growth has accelerated to 33%, we should still recognise the huge/ongoing disconnect vs. cash flow (& reported earnings, which are now about 40% lower than adjusted diluted earnings) – limiting ourselves to a 20.0 Price/Earnings ratio, based on adjusted diluted EPS, seems only prudent (or maybe even generous): (GBP 0.517 Adj Dil EPS * 20.0 P/E + (117 M Rev * 1.33 P/S + 15.1 M Cash + 23.1 M Debt Adjustment * 50%) / 24.2 M Shares) / 2 =
It`s there already. My best performing share. Up 1258% in 7 years! A great business with more to come.
News of the deal with Reuters has pushed us thro` £17. £20 not so far way now!
Looks like £17 will be along ins short order. this has been held down for too long and even holding the ask at £15.96 for ages while rising the bid could not be sustained. I expect resistance again at £17 but feel really confident of seeing £20 this year.
Agreed. Bought it 7 years ago and have made a 1000% return! Never disappoints. One day I hope it will list on Nasdaq.
This one moves in bounds when it moves. Maybe the fact that it is £15+ with a fairly wide paper spread puts people off investing. But it really is a niche company that has made shrewd acquisitions, pays a divi and is growing strongly. What's not to like here. Target Price £20
of 10,000 shares. A not insignificant outlay of £155,000 pounds with the shares not far off all time highs and markets very soggy! Looks like there is significant upside to come with this company.
15 to 25 times NMS but the price has only gone up. The market has absorbed these shares. I reckon we will push through 1600p in short order as we move to new highs and beyond. I don't belive the recent update is fully priced in yet
and I have a target price of £20 here. Really off the radar share and a quiet BB. I think we are having a brief pause before the next leg up. Fairly illiquid so when this moves it moves in bounds!
sells has triggered some profit taking. I hope the sellers are out now so we can resume the uptrend. Undervalued at these levels.
coverage and has a 1535p target. Results in a few weeks will hopefully give this one a lift Now that we have breached 1200p again I am hoping we can push on towards 1300p to regain lost ground.
I feel that this company is off the radar. Been a lot of positive updates and these should feed through to the bottom line. Anotter potential revenue stream opened up today and the acquisition is clearly paying dividends.
yesterday and the SP barely budged. 1300p is resistance for now. It seems to be paused for now which is not a bad thing as it hopefully prepares for the next leg-up.
Have been in these since the £5.00 days but recently sold the last of my holdings. Still think there is further to go in terms of price increase and may buy in again if the price dips sufficiently. Decent company with plenty of growth left. In the mean time, I think there are better opportunites elsewhere. Will still keep them on my watchlist.
Charles Stanley have published a target price of £17.70 this morning. They are the House broker. Panmure Gordon raised their target price to 1657p. 28% upside from here even taking Panmure Gordon's figure. A very happy holder. I am looking at £14 by year end. I also think this might be a share for 2015 in some tip sheets.
Looks like resistance has been breached after a flurry of buys. Can it hold above the £13 level to the end of play? If so, we may see £14 after results tomorrow.
I think we might see this breach £13 at 8am tomorrow. I don't think it will hold after a good run up recently. I still have a £14.80 target price and really like the recent acquisition. Hopefully the growth will be there as any slowing will send this into reverse. I like the story but don't want to be sent back a few pages to a lower price.
In my opinion this is still very much a growth stock as back in June it was published that they had plans to expand and take on another 400 or so staff. Hopefully it'll get back to its 1400+ price. Coupled with good acquisitions, it has a lot of potential. That said, I'm surprised this board remains so quiet! Perhaps the company isn't really on the mainstream investment radars....yet.
...bounding forward pre-results. I hope this can hit £15 quid again. They have signed some very good contracts and must be vulnerable to a takeover. Up nearly 50% since August 25th and when it moves it moves in leaps and bounds. Some broker had a TP of £14.80 and that might be achieved pre-results at this rate.
2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IX) I take a look at First Derivatives, plus a batch of other Irish stocks: http://wexboy.wordpress.com/2014/05/05/2014-the-great-irish-share-valuation-project-part-ix/ Cheers, Wexboy
18 September 2013 First Derivatives plc ("First Derivatives" or "the Company") First Derivatives collaborates with NYSE Technologies on a new suite of "As a Service" Trading solutions - Combines leading data and archiving platforms to create a diverse range of new on-demand services First Derivatives (AIM: FDP.L, ESM: FDP.I), a leading provider of software and consulting services to global investment banks, brokers, hedge funds and exchanges, today announces that it will be working with NYSE Technologies, the commercial technology division of NYSE Euronext (NYX) to create a new suite of historical data "as a service" solutions for NYX clients utilising First Derivatives' Delta(TM) product suite. Combining NYSE Technologies' historical and real-time data expertise covering cash, options, futures and corporate actions with First Derivatives' products and market expertise, the Tick as a Service offering will build into a suite of innovative market services for clients to gain efficient access to large data stores for analytical back testing and compliance "By integrating First Derivatives' suite of services with our diverse portfolio of technology solutions, including our consolidated feed service, we can offer comprehensive data collection, storage, and analysis 'as a service' to our entire global trading community," said Jon Robson, CEO, NYSE Technologies. "This new service will allow participants to move from a client deployed to managed service for the storage, support and delivery of tick history infrastructure to back-test their algorithms and interrogate their data through a flexible, fully-managed solution. The Tick As A Service offering with First Derivatives is the first of a number of historical data solutions we shall offer." Brian Conlon, CEO, First Derivatives said, "Our collaboration with NYSE Technologies will deliver substantial benefits to clients - improving time to market while efficiently minimising operational overhead and reducing costs. I am delighted that First Derivatives is forging a relationship with one of the most capable service providers in the global capital markets community who understand that the community needs managed solutions to address commoditised services and thus release capital for differentiating opportunities." NYSE Technologies' innovative technology portfolio includes a broad array of real-time, historical and reference data alongside the first-ever capital markets community cloud, a hosted consolidated feed service (SuperFeed), and one of the world's largest FIX-based order routing networks (Marketplace), all seamlessly available across the Secure Financial Transactions Infrastructure(R) (SFTI(R) ) network. First Derivative's flagship Delta suite of products include Delta Flow, Delta Data Factory, Delta Algo, Delta Margin and Delta Stream which are used in high volume, low latency environments. Combining key
Don't suppose anyone has any speculative ideas as to why the share price has risen so much lately? Takeover? New lucrative contracts in the offing? General market rises?
2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II) I take a look at First Derivatives, plus a batch of other Irish stocks: http://wexboy.wordpress.com/2013/01/30/2013-the-great-irish-share-valuation-project-part-ii/ Cheers, Wexboy