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Shares have a taken a bit of a hit due to an unexpected cash raise. However from a chart perspective they have fallen to a support so anyone thinking about entering you have the chart on your side (whatever thats worth!)
Anyway I have added (again fwiw! :0))
Cheers wyn! I did buy a few Hemo with cash in my acc (available as I'd sold 20% of a slightly overbought share last week, to 'bed and ISA' it. I might have to break my rule to buy all my original stake again, back inside my ISA. Knowing how news gets delayed there I perhaps have a bit of time. Well done for selling some Hemo when you said it looked gravity defying.
Thanks for your post on ONC. Also comments on HARL. I am quite curious on ur thoughts for HARL, on what looks to be excellent news on the finalisation of 700m contract, why is it down? "Sell on the news". Cheers
My guess HARL is down today cos Killik & Co LLP still selling their holdings, seems they are keen to exit from their pattern shown in the RNS IMO, DYOR. I would caution buying too much until there is a clearer indication of them halting sells. IMO, DYOR.
Hi CI,
I was previous on Harl yesterday getting in before end of close prices. (I really should no better! ha ha)
So its in a range with 18p being a bit of a support and if it goes then 15p would be the next support. needs to close above 22p to indicate further gains.
From an FA POV there is clearly a big seller presumably crystalising the gains from around 5p? but who knows what the reason is, (it might be something else, or a whole host of reasons), there is talk of a cash raise, so that might be depressing the price too.
My gut feel is that they need another decent sized contract win to show that they really have turned a corner to secure their future , at that stage it might give investors the confidence to pile in.
As for AGL, that's in no mans land right now. the bottom is clear at 23.90p and the rsi was 20 which is over sold so the rise was on the cards, so fa so good. but...has it stalled?
The high was 32.5p then it tried to break it, but stalled at 31.25p and then had a 3rd go and stalled at 30.5p.
So that suggests it will fall back further. However it is close to the top for a breakout so would not take much to break 32,5p.
Ultimately you can make an argument for either direction but given the conflicting signals I would wait until it closed above 32.5p And thats the thing. Its an odds game and the odds (to me) looking at the chart, are not strong enough to bet on either direction.
Anyway, just my 2p's worth... GL
Wyn, thanks for sharing your detailed opinions! Good read as always. I agree, the price action both indicate shareholder exit and a possible rights issue coming. It's not possible to deliver on a 700m+ contract without significant funding to back the project. So the selling after such wonderful news suggest to me that an II wants out and may not want to fully participate in RI if any. I think a good time would be after the rights issue if it does happen IMO. What do u mean by FA POV?
As for your comments AGL.. I agree completely. Wait and see.
I added some ONC today. RSI still at 50 though.. not sure if it will fall further or support will hold and hopefully upwards to 70s+. IMO, DYOR.
FA = Fundamental analysis (all company info, accounts, PE ratios etc ) in an effort to "value" the company to see if its out of sync with its market valuation (shares in issue x SP)
POV: short hand for point of view
Certainly from a TA POV I think ONC is a reasonable entry point right now. Just because there is (in this instance) a support at 58p does not mean it WILL fall to there to test it, Plus its close to the 61p support and when placing stops the MM's can see what we all can see so normally push it a little lower just to see if it will flush some trades out before the shares rise again.
It becomes a bit of cat and mouse game with the MM's as to where to place stops so you need to add (imo) a bit of wiggle room so you don't get whipsawed out of a stock.
(FWIW I never place a stop on a book so that it can be seen, I just have a figure that if hit, will trigger me to sell.)
Hi Wyn, so you do think that MMs can see stop-losses if one sets one? Mine are usually for relatively small amounts and there must be thousands of stops at every price, but maybe I should do like you (not that I set them often).
I missed the COPL RNS yesterday so was completely oblivious to the fall, only noticing the 'rise' today. I don't have that much in there (less now!) so not a huge problem but someone on the bb said they had a buy order for £10k worth of shares and it activated while the shares were in free-fall yesterday. Made me think never to set buy orders..
I'm a few £100 from being blue with AVCT now. Still a long wait off £8 but moving in the right direction!
Morning D, my experience of setting stops is back when I day traded indecis and the guys training me explained how the market worked and always recommended never to put in a formal stop as they (MM's) can just push the price to it, and automatically trigger it, take the money and move back up. For every sell there is a buyer. So for example if a Stock is selling at 60p and they have a buyer who wants to buy at 58p and someone has logged a stop at 58p.... well you can guess what happens. All anyone else sees is a dip to 58p and then back to 60p, thinking "I wonder what that was all about?"
Anyways, these City traders told me never to put a stop in the market. (It was a pretty instructive few days, they worked for Bank of America's trading desk and had some good examples to back up the theory.)
The biggest take away I got was patience and not to break the plan the individual has devised that works. Something I still struggle with to this day. (as my recent buy of HARL proved yet again. Ha!)
Thanks for that Wyn, conclusively not a good idea to set a stop loss then. I did have one on SNG a long time ago, the day the sp fell off the cliff, but managed to cancel it in time. Having said that the SNG price has not recovered.
I know you bought HARL but haven't really followed it. It should be ok medium term though? As you say, another big order and that would really give them a boost.
AVCT surely must rise in the lead to science day. I broke my rule and put more money in with the intention of making a small % before science day and selling in advance. I shall still make the 'sell' but it'd be tempting to hang on for the news. I'll save 5% for sure if I pay off some mortgage so will stick to the plan and sell. I dare say AVCT will still have some highs and lows even on great results.
MMAG has been good for Yanis and you. Up more than 300% since I bookmarked it. After eve I was nervous of something I didn't know much about whereas you were ok as you only had to look at the chart :-)
Its always difficult to know when to buy (I find selling actually easier).
I guess it goes back to a "plan" thing. What criteria does the individual have for picking a stock? is it the sector, the FA side?
Once decided what's the time frame, what's the expected gain, what price do you want to pay. and why?
(There was a chap on MMAG that wanted to buy when the SP was 35p but was waiting for a 25% fall. So I asked what made him think that would happen. No reason he said, but would only buy between 25p-30p. The stock is now 40p (and was 44p). To me that was so illogical as to be beyond comment.
Harl looks attractive now as buy there is on closer inspection a16.5p ish support, but I have no funds to use to take advantage. If it falls further than 15p is the bigger support in which case I might stump up some money from somewhere
I think I posted that I could see a AVCT drifting up to 175-185p prior to science day but that target is a while back now as we are close to recent all time highs (over the last 12 months) so its starting to get into no mans land for me to forecast the upside. Given the nature of its model it will be news driven anyway. So it will push it to overbought from time to time no doubt and I will sell and hopefully buy lower down and maybe try & cream a few extra percent in between the news releases.
Eve was very painful for you others I know, and I have had the same experience previously. All we can do is learn from it but at the same time try not to let it affect future decisions. (A bit like getting a divorce and then not trusting any body else thereafter, all these other people are not the partner that you split up with, so don't miss out on future happiness by the scars of that relationship. sort of thing).
Sold my Xeros, put into AVCT till just before SD (at the earliest?). Getting far too overweight in AVCT now..
Hi D, well fingers firmly crossed this one (AVCT) pays off.
(You still WOSG? results tomorrow)
Evening Wyn,
I wish I still were in WOSG but sold (at a 30% profit, thanks :-) and moved to HE1 supposedly briefly before they were supposed to spud, and then they lost the rig and money then became stuck in HE1 till they at least get another rig and maybe even spud.
A bit of a long story but I've now done something similar with AVCT with some cash (but so far, so good this time) I had and which I shall need around the end of the month. I bought at 162 a couple of days ago so the plan is working, and then added the Xeros money too today. Unless there's amazing Xeros news (could be; I do feel rather manipulated at times) I can't see things improving for a while, and after eve going bust I need to protect capital... I have the 5p warrants there too. Maybe they disappear now I'm out for too long.
I moved my F&S AVCT money to my SIPP and will get a bit of tax relief in due course, which I shall hope to move into WOSG and hopefully trade a little. It (WOSG) looks like it ebbs and flows quite regularly and won't go bust.
When the people at AVCT BB see a few sells prior to SD and say 'people are mad if they sell now' it's because I need to reduce the size of a buy to let mortgage now the interest rates are higher!
I guess you are still in WOSG or you wouldn't ask. Thanks for the view that it looks like a long term bet and a sound one at that. Good luck tomorrow!
I don't quite understand why G4M is so low. I might move a little more money there if things pan out with AVCT.
Nothing wrong with a 30% profit D. And although the results look good to me on WOSG the market still whacked it down. (But as i say its a longer timeframe for that one (see what i did there...:0))
G4M is tricky. They work on wafer thin margins once overheads are taken into account and profit versus turnover is clearly a worry to the market. However at the price they are it is worth keeping an eye on I think. Chartwise (presently) if it closes above 97p then odds are it will go up further.
Have u guys been following HARL? When u think good timing? I am sitting on the sidelines until sellers are out and funding announced. IMO, DYOR
ONC drifting lower on no news.. may be stay like that until we get results. What ur thoughts?
Hi CI,
I bought more harl today at 15.29. Could have waited (in theory) for the 14.75p drop but often the market moves away quickly from a strong support and it can be hard to time it perfectly, so i tend to not try to be too clever and am happy to pay just above a support and get the stock I want in .
ONC is ok, had one support at 60.5p, and is now at the next one at 58p ish. all pretty tight in the grand scheme of spreads I think. If this support goes then I might think about reducing my holding as mid 50's to 51p would be next. But there does not seem any general or specific move going on, so as I say at this stage I am not looking to be bounced out.
GL
HI Wyn, Harl continues its decline, do you have any new thoughts on this? Will u continue to top up or u have a price point to sell? I am a curious observer. Not taken any position yet.
a bit early for harl as I tend to wait for close of play prices rather than intraday. but if 15p goes then it could be 10p but there are also potential stops at around 14p and 13p.
if 15p does hold today then it would be showing a lot of support at 15p.
As you say "Not taken any position yet.", are you waiting for a trigger to get in or not particularly?
GL
Cheer Wyn, yes I am waiting for a clearer signal that the trend is upwards rather than down. For example, I would be more encouraged to see evidence of Killik & Co LLP and Kave out or after RIs if that happens at all. It seems currently still downward pressure. I am especially risk adverse after Eve Sleep's loss, I understand I may miss out on a sudden big rise if such news comes out but I would be more confident to buy if the trend is upwards. Are you saying you have a stop loss of around 14 and 13p? If so, would u then wait to buy back in at 10p if those stops hit?
I have a pretty modest holding in this CI so strictly speaking I would exit if it closed below 15p. In reality I will probably offload some in that instance, but in any event its relatively small beer.
I think a close above 17.5p (right now) would indicate the trend might be reversing.
I like HE1 chart wise plus my own personal logic suggests that some that a low has been reached.
AVCT is getting close to it "science day" but hard to predict what will happen. Will it be a rehash of whats known or will it be new info?
Again it looks ok to me at this particular level to buy some.(160p)
Diversify and small amounts is not the worst phillosphy in this game. (imo) :0))
Re Harl: the strong bounce away from the 15p support has convinced me enough to add further now.
(I have mentioned before stops can be a cat and mouse game and I get attentive once it falls below an obvious stop, and always build in a bit of wiggle room before selling.
I was ready to sell this morning if it looked like it was going to fall further so patience one the day (at least today).
It could well fall back again if the seller comes back out, but it looks like there underlying strength in and around the current SP (imo dyor etc)
re: Harl, nice sudden spike today. This is probs due to the recent stop in selling. Not sure if it is their strategy to attract short-term spikes and sell into them for higher price. Is this typical practice? I will continue to follow closely.
RE: ONC, continuous declines over recent days, now down towards 50s. I did gradually sell down to derisk but still hold a small amount. Not sure what to do... whether to sell the remaining or wait and see until results. Not much of a strategy here. I was originally think it was on an upward trend so didn't expect it to fall to these levels. IMO, DYOR.
I agree about ONC. I have sold out, the RNS said (for all the good stuff) that it would make no material difference to this years figures so probably time to get back in as and when.
IQAI / Iq-ai seems to be bubbling a little.