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Thanks for persevering wyn :)
I think what I meant to say (and you'd probably still take issue) is that if I were 'down' on a share yet the RSI were 85 I would find it hard to sell even though I know the likelihood is that it would fall back shortly. Wait till the next 'push' and then sell would be my hope. Whereas if I were already 10 or 20% up it'd be easy to take the profit.
I need to work on the 'sell' side I know.. As you say it's easier without an emotional attachment and I have indeed divorced just over £1k of my avct holding from the rest.
With the resistance and supports I look at the chart and see recent highs and lows and take them into account but I'm no where close to your understanding (eg. "if 103.5 goes then it's 79.35 I'm afraid") and odnt expect I ever will get close. Certainly if Snow gets above $400 I wouldn't hesitate next chance..
Have toy seen the price of cloud data storage?! Dropbox is £8 / month. I just checked as I had a scare with an external HD and that's the second one. Snow has to be fine long term (fingers crossed!).
Angle was another riser I should have sold a bit of on Monday but I was too focussed on Avct. All hindsight but I could have got my HL deal with a couple more trades!
Hi D: thanks for the extra detail.
"I think I might target prices as a percentage up or down (and settle for a few percent profit but trade more often) "
That sounds random to me? So what % will you allow the SP to fall before you sell? What % appreciation will you also allow before you bank the profit?
When you buy the stock initially, what makes you think its going to go up? (as opposed to down?) What is your risk reward ratio going to be?
"I think that trading is easier if you're 'up' as crystallising a big loss, like with eve, is so painful."
Nope. One, you never let a loss get so big its painful to close and you never have bet so much that if the trade goes bad against you and two your reasoning is based on an emotional response. (you have to channel your Vulcan side, ha ha).
You don't have to use support and resistance lines to decide when to buy or sell but there is a reason why these peaks and troughs form. (once a pattern forms it stops being "random".)
AVCT is an example of a predictable stock that has been thus far easy to trade. What has made it harder for many is the greed factor of "what if". However that is a reasonable scenario, in which case out some funds into it as a longer term bet to see how it plays out and then trade it (if you want) with a separate amount and mentally divorce your self from the two holdings.
Most people lose at trading (I was one of them) because the "plan" is not that robust and cannot divorce their emotions from what they are doing. (Fear & Greed are tremendously powerful drivers of human action. I would not under estimate them.)
And by the time the individual starts to figure it out they have lost their capital and become another statistic as to how "trading" does not work
Hi Wyn,
In fact I missed a little bit out, as it didn't really add to the story :) The complete version is that I bought back too early as I say (135ish?) and then sold at 129 (so a loss but bearable as I was still 'up' overall) as I could see the fall continuing and then I bought back more shares for even less a little later (125?). So the story is essentially the same with an extra couple of trades. If I'd waited overnight I'd have done better but then what if there'd a good RNS at 7am?! - as you said it could have jumped back.
Part of it was that I thought I'd make enough trades on HL to get a better deal in November! I failed on that so still £11.95 for me this month.
I think you are right, I am just making it up as I go along but with Avct, if there's bad news there won't be much of a chnace to sell at a pre-determined point, and if results are good I plan to follow your 'sell 30%' as, even a 'cure for cancer' won't go up in a straight line.
I think I might target prices as a percentage up or down (and settle for a few percent profit but trade more often) rather than your system of resistances and supports. Maybe that will come later if I have any success with the %'s system.
WOSG seems to have steadied and I am very slightly up there. I'd certainly try and bank 10% if I get the chance, after charges, and then buy back. Thank you for that one.
I think that trading is easier if you're 'up' as crystallising a big loss, like with eve, is so painful.
The RSI of CINE must have been sky high all session yesterday afternoon so it's not always a brief phenomenon is it? CINE RSI must be down today of course.
This is relatively long term; I've have heard that sellers of hydrogen gas fully expect much of the haulage fleet to run on hydrogen fuel cells before very long. I'd quite like to get some exposure to a gas company if I get any spare money in my account. There are a few about, big and small.
Good luck with your trades today :)
D
Morning D: " My sell was timed pretty well as the share did then fall back but I then bought back much too early "
Try if you can to break that mindset:
What actually happened is that you bought at 105p and sold at 140p. That trade was clearly very successful.
The trade where you have bought back in at around 128p ish? is now a new trade and you will have (or should have) a target as to when to sell it. Also you should have a stop that if it falls , when you should crystalise the loss.
So no, right now you not have not bought in too early. Only time will tell how successful or not this new trade will be.
You can't know the future and as I always say you have to pull the trigger. You could have waited to see if it fell further, but what if jumped back up?
So its all about target prices. What are the odds of it falling to a certain price you have identified? You have to identify these "target prices" otherwise you don't have a system, and you are just randomly buying and selling.
Cheers
one last word might be... don't rush it...if you get a couple of wins under your belt carry on keeping it small. Once you "want" or " need" the outcome to go in your favour you will be amazed how quickly it can go wrong. (well, that was my experience, anyway!) ha ha
Thanks, as ever, for taking the time wyn, you are right. I will definitely pursue the new strategy with the small eve / avct parcel and see if I can get back some of the eve losses, and if avct get good results shortly, so much the better.
I would leave Argo alone. I don't like the premise as I think Crypto's are not viable long term, let alone its own very parlous state. (Its EVE all over again, Not worth the risk in my book)
Same goes for CINE. The cinema is dead as a concept so I would bet its just a matter of time.
The difference between trading and LTB&H is just the timescale, however the "idea" of trading is that you try and keep making 3-10% profits more frequently.
The mindset potentially allows a more nimble approach to specific situations. My experience has been that the shorter I hold a share the less attached I get to the company. (which is a good thing I think.) It allows me to focus on the here and now and what might happen to the SP over the short term rather than look at the company itself over the long term. (A concept some apparently find hard to understand.)
The good thing is there are so many companies out there that there is no need to chase the Cine's and Argo's of this world that might return (against the odds) great returns. Its easier than people think to get a few % here and there (not ever day but 5-10% a month would annualise out at a great return.)
Thanks Wyn. It's easier with the eve money as it's theoretically 'up' now and so a loss would be less perplexing.
I can see that it's a good help with choosing a moment to sell, which has been a big problem for me. Many shares have RSI in oversold territory but of course that doesn't mean anything. They might be about to go bust.
I don't have any 'CINE' but see that they are up around 140% right now.. Their RSI is above 80 (was nearer 90 earlier) so I shall watch what happens there.
ARGO could easily go the way of eve sleep... or CINE? Might watch that one more closely.
Practise makes perfect D and also because its quite a mechanical process, it is far far easier when starting this new method, to be playing with money that is small enough for you not to care or worry about the outcome (win or lose).
It was a no brainer to sell around the 140p mark because there were only a few outcomes. The SP actually closed that high which would have, at a close RSI be above 80 which would have pretty much said a fall would happen to day or it carried on rising iand closed say 150p even more over bought leading to at worse a retrace to 140p ish so even if you bought back in the "loss " would have been very small.
Or it did what it actually did and fell from a strong resistance level intra day, in any of the 3 scenarios you were likely to either make money or just have a 1% and trading cost downside. So the risk reward was good. I am very glad it worked for you. But as I say, my advice (fwiw), would be, keep the bets very small so you feel you can emotionally detach yourself from the outcome, because there will be times you lose. :0))
When I managed to save some of my eve Capital a few weeks ago I split it among 4 other shares. The 1/4 I put into one share went up steeply yesterday (I mentioned it here) and so I made back (on paper) some of my eve loss. I noticed the SP went into overbought territory >80 RSI so, as an experiment, sold it. My sell was timed pretty well as the share did then fall back but I then bought back much too early as a response to an RNS which I thought may encourage MORE buying, not less. Still, I ended up with a few more shares. It worked for me and I'll try again, with the eve part :)
Yanis, small stocks like that can be a problem to get in and out of. That may not be an issue for you but for some it might be. It just adds another layer of risk that all should be aware of. ATB
Open: 9.75p Trade high: 10.47p Year high: 167.50p
MMAG; hopefully they will prosper once the good times are back in the economy.
I roped myself into ECO and am sitting on about 15% profit but they are somewhere between any day and 2 weeks from declaring the results of their drill.
It looks to be a 2-3 bagger pretty quickly on a good outcome but like all exploration plays its more likely to come up dry than not.
for the sake of a small amount chucked at it might be worth ago? (the chart says its a goer having broken a strong resistance level on Friday and stayed above today but as I say.... its all or nothing (more or less. They do have other options but I would think its a 50-80% fall on coming up dry.) DYOR etc etc
Geeman, MMAG is a very low float stock, not many shares in issue and even less on free circulation. Is worth keeping an eye on. In my opinion is way oversold now.
.thanks Baz for posting the link.
That is it then, nothing for shareholders. Benson’s got it for nothing. What a mismanagement!
Good to know that there is nothing for us. I will ask my broker to take Eve out of my portfolio and move on. Huge loss.
Any sniff of admin next time and I will run a mile.
Received this update by e-mail today. £600K was the price they picked Eve up for.
Some further info in this regarding creditors etc. https://www.bigfurnituregroup.com/details-of-eve-sleep-administration-revealed-sale-valued-600k/
Hi Yanis, Music Magpie were good when we bought an iphone from them fairly recently. I wish you luck.
I will add MMAG to my watchlist.
Have you noticed what's happened over at Argo Blockchain? (-56.25%) today, which comes back to Ukraine and the hike in energy costs, and bitcoin price – also due to cost of living crisis.
Sooner or later things will turn around and people will think they're geniuses as everything will be going up. Let's hope that time doesn't take an eternity to arrive.
Hi Geeman/Wyn, I don’t have any shares in it but I know Avacta is a good one, been on my watch list for a while now but no cash to put in it. My last lot of free cash went in to MMAG (MusicMagpie)
For Eve though I know is a longshot but i am hoping for something back. I don’t expect them to pay redundancy money out of what’s is left, they have not been made redundant in the normal sense, the company went bust But what do I know?
Eve is still showing in my portfolio and looking at that loss is painful. :( I just wish for an end to this and have Eve out of my portfolio and forget about it but I cannot get rid of it yet because of the possibility of some return
I hope at least we find out when is all over and I can then ask my broker to remove it, forget about it and move on
The last buy was maybe at 105p (Avct, so sorry for off-topic folks..) so I'm well up there and helps with the fact that my average is nearer 190p.. I shall hang on for the moment! If it does get too crazy then maybe I'll sell the last tranche. Angle doing ok today too I notice (though well below my average there too).
People on another BB (Tiziana) used to talk of doubling-up on going through an important resistance. I can see now that trading (if you can do it) is better. However, on good trial news with AVCT it will indeed go much higher so maybe doubling-up has a place? Or trading on the way up has an even better place – IF I can do it..
You will do well :-)
D: now at 136p . one to hang onto I think and ride it (hopefully) up.
Have a stop loss from where you bought in or if nervous, then sell some at a level you have reasoned to be significant but not all of the stock?
Cheers
Hi Yanis,
I have no idea.. I'm not holding out any hope. All there'd be I think would be value in remaining stock and that 50% sale will have reduced stock substantially. When you think of the redundancy payments for the final staff that could eat a big chunk of any value that was left. Then there's the money they borrowed towards the end and contracts for offices etc..
When I got out some of my capital (at a substantial loss) I put some into Avacta and set an automatic sell at 125p. My attempt at trading and I mentioned it here. I cancelled the automatic sell last week as it seemed to be going up quite strongly and now stands at 128p. AVCT have a possible treatment for some cancers that would be substantially better than the current available ones. I'm not suggesting people invest now but results are due shortly and if good, there's every chance it'd be worth looking at closely. I imagine there'd be a big rise on day 1 (then a bit of a fall back?) but over the next few years it would be almost bound to be a good share to be in – if it works as hoped for. Not advice, but opinion, and I've been completely wrong on eve as the situation changed. Situations change all the time and could change for AVCT too; nothing seems certain.
Does anyone know what Esr 2022 (EVE) stands for?
Anybody knows when we’ll find out if there is any money left for shareholders?
Agree....It does stink but i did say EVE were done 6-8 months ago it's tough i know lost a lot here lesson learned... think you have to let it go....
I never gave nor was asked to sell my holding to Bensons - yet it seems they were legally able to take it anyway and pay me nothing for my holding? How is this morally right? Do things need to change for shareholders to have some legal rights over the share they may own of any PlC - This particular EVE shareholders situation stinks!
Seems any shares that shareholders still held once administration was announced are absolutely totally worthless thanks to CC and TP etc who get to walk away while bank rupting some shareholders!