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Yes, CI, got very lucky on that one! (makes a change Ha ha!) Joking aside it seems like something is up. still a little while away from the results so I don't think its that...maybe some big buyig (II?)
Oh well, just enjoy the ride I spose.
Wyn..wow perfect timing with WOSG, timing couldn't get any better. 8% rise already... very nice.
Good to learn ur opinions on AGL. fingers crossed for u both too.
Bought WOSG today too. tight stop at 758p as a reversal looks to be underway. 1st target 820p but 874p looks doable to me.
Year end figures next month. I am expecting the forecast to be pretty positive as more store opening are coming on line every quarter. THE PEG is very low at .30 (Anything below 1 is seen as good value). Just feels like a re-rating is due but thats almost certainly me indulging in wishful thinking.
Hi Ci, well, Yesterday after the rise I expected a higher finishing RSI but it only moved a few points to 70.
On that basis I bought a modest amount this morning at open at 27.26p My "logic" was 30p is still a target but I thought the retrace might not be down to the mid 20's so a price around mid 26p (didn't quite get in there but...) would seem ok.
The other e scenario is that it goes through 30p and then retraces back to it, so i would get in at 31p ish.
So my options were get in now and pay too much if it falls to 24p say, or wait and potentially get in at 31p.
So I have bought with half my funds I had allocated to it. I will add the other half at either 24p or 31p (1st Target is 46p)
AGL as Wyn mentioned fully funded until 2024 h2 with 30 mil + cash end of 2022. So unlike Eve they don't have the short-term issue cash issue. I am hoping the momentum can continue as AGL focuses on commercialisation and more deals in the pipeline. AGL raised 20mil at 80p in latest round... so I think 16p was crazy due to exits at any cost from other big sellers like Amati Global Investors Fund (stated they exited small holdings in their April report). Now they are out I am hoping the buy pressure outweighs the sells driving share prices higher which we are seeing with the recent correction from 16p to now 28p. I think further to go, 30p would be a good milestone to hit. IMO, DYOR
What's ur analysis from yesterday's close? Are you getting back in? :) @Wyn
Good to see you trading well D-Geeman
I have an amateur mistake of selling too early on stocks doing well and holding on to losses (Case in hand with EveSleep) when I should do the opposite. Hoping I can hold on to the growing pattern this time round and selling at the right time.
Glad I didn't top up AGL. In fact, an hour ago, I sold those in my SIPP and can now buy more back than I sold..
Will buy them back (perhaps even today).
Just looking at the YTD chart for AGL and I can now see why you say 30 is a resistance. It's been there around 3 times before, and close twice more. I managed to hold off for the moment too. Many thanks :-)
Hi D, Charts are not an exact thing. Its just really trying to skew the odds into the buyer/seller's favour.
At close Friday it was 67 on the RSI, I wait for 80 (as you know) before deciding what to do but anything above 70 is an indication of being over bought, so at 67 it was too high/close for me to want to buy this morning given the spread.
So I will see where it finished tonight and then look for a retrace as a possibilty to get in.
The other thing is never to get too anxious on stocks (its the "not caring" thing), as there is always a chance you miss out if the stock does not do what you thought it would, but there are always other opportunities on other stocks out there.
To me, its just numbers, not companies.
Morning Wyn, Angle didn't get through the 30p mark but surrey only a matter of time? Looking overbought at 29 and fallen back a little as I write. Do the charts really allow it to fall back from here? I guess they must as it's happened elsewhere on good news.
Hi D, I bought a small amount last week. (As you know I am not averse to jumping on a band wagon and momentum does not normally stop dead.) I am betting 12.18 is the low of the retrace. A close above 13.22p would confirm.
Wyn, I suspect you’ll be out of SNG, probably been out for a while. Ghia, who is well respected I think, posted this comment today: ‘ Doc83 - It will be very interesting to see the action tomorrow if 13 holds it’s a very strong sign technically.’
Not sure if that’s something you’d agree with but I’ll be keeping an eye on it, on Monday.
Atb, D
Hi Guys, sold Angle a while back so have not looked at it for a while. Certainly the update is positive and the biggest thing is the cash on hand (imo). Looks good for 12 months .
Chartwise its in no mans land. Obviously a great surge but the resistance is now much closer at and around 30p.
That on the chart looks stubborn so will be a great buying signal if/when it goes through.
The 2 most likely options looks to me, is either it carries on 20 28-30p before retracing to around 23.5-24p or will retrace now to there before having a proper go at 30p.
(On balance and with the RSI at 67 its a difficult call. The reason its hard to say is because if you were buying you would either wait for a close above 30p ish or wait for a retrace so there is not much incentive to buy at this price right now given the spread.) Good Luck
Now you have highlighted AGL I will keep tabs on this and either get in (if I can) around 23 ish or if not 30p ish.
Hi Wyn, Ci,
Sorry, only just checked in at eve. Both angle and HE1 were on my mind today. My tax relief on my SIPP contribution finally landed today, so fortunate timing.
I bought a bit more angle during the presentation (as everything seems to be going a lot better now, AN could scarcely have been more positive though I do take things with a pinch of salt) with new money, then used my SIPP tax relief to buy even more as the sp continued to rise. When the rise faltered I sold the ‘new-money’ purchase (after 4hrs approx) for a profit and bought WOSG which went on to rise from its low point of the day.
My only slight regret was selling Angle when it then went on to reach a daily high before close.
Wyn, I read your post on HE1 bb saying you’d bought some more and was tempted but didn’t want to break my rule twice in a day. I haven’t sold any HE1 so still have everything - including the amount I bought just before they didn’t get the last rig. That was meant to be short term and turned long term.
It’s nice to think we could all do quite well soon.
I’m well down on angle but have 50% more shares now, having averaged down.
Are you still in Angle Wyn? Obviously you are Ci.
I’m glad the eve bb still has its uses!
(Not confident on CC’s latest venture. We find our girls have too much to do, not too little.)
Hi Wyn, not a holder of HE1 but a curious follower anyways. Holder of Angle Plc, seems may be finally turning a corner. Would be great to learn ur opinion on Angle from TA perspective also. Thanks
Morning D, (and anyone else who may pop by),
Do you still own any HE1? I bought more this morning as its above a break out of 6.65p. (its intra day and its a bit tentative from a TA pov but I think it has upward momentum on its side).
The target for me is to go at least to 8.5 so about a 30% gain on offer. Diifficult to have a rigid stop on this one because its either going to drill or not and if for some reason it doesn't its likely to be game over, so my investment amount is tailored accordingly.
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Evening Wyn, almost everyone on these boards stay with companies as they feel they know them. Research in the bank as it were so sticking with what's known as opposed to the unknown. I knew nothing of Music Magpie when Yanis mentioned it and it was around 10p so chose to keep my limited resources where they were. Having said that, I think it possible to make money on almost any company as you did with eve, even while it was going bust. That's why I hang on to SNG as it could be they get onto strive and hey presto. And even if they don't, maybe I can increase my holding and then get some out, even at a loss but a smaller loss than present. When it was going down I sold ABDX for around 6p and was glad I had when it went to 4p but had I waited, I'd be actually a little better off (on paper) today. I think that money went to AVCT so hopefully will ultimately do better there so no worries.
As for your thoughts on picking a trade with a stop and a higher target I hope to do that with WOSG. I'm due a bit of tax relief on my SIPP. I fully intend to put it into WOSG and then do what I did last time. Incidentally, I claimed a 30% profit last time on WOSG but that was an innocent error as it was actually 20% but with a £30 on the end of the profit – which probably makes no sense at all!
I am more-or-less sticking to my no-new-money rule. As I did with AVCT I may still temporarily buy more but then sell for a small profit. There are times (such as when you mentioned 109 / 111p looked to be a good time to buy) when a share really is VERY likely to rise so I'll try and take those chances, but not on things that are too risky. Look at NNN today; big rise but way too risky.
One day (and it could be a quite a while) things will generally go back up again and I hope I am still here as an investor to take advantage. It should be easier in a rising market than it is today!
Hi D, when you said earlier ".... I can't detach myself from the company." thats very normal and usual.
I broke the link when I was day trading just one product. (10 year bond futures). I might trade up to 6 or 7 times a day and I could short as well as go long. I over traded like crazy (rookie error) but quite soon the product itself was irrelevant, it was just moving numbers so I became detached from the instrumwent itself.
Thats one of the "risks" of these BB's. As they are all to some degree or other just echo chambers, it is very easy to get caught up in the positive-only outcome and as a result it makes the selling much harder as you always think more is to come and ignore what is right in front of your eyes.
I know I take some stick on the AVCT BB, but if you had never heard of the company and someone told you about it now, with your experience of say SNG and AGL as bio-techs with great promise but have failed to deliver SP gains, then you might look at its actual history and think this is just another company that misses deadlines and fails to deliver in spier of what seems, great tech.
However we know what we know and it therefore can be hard to be dispassionate, but that is ultimately Fear and Greed driving the "rational" thinking process out the window.
So its hard, very hard, but the first step is to bet so small the result is irrelevant and that way you can stick to "the plan" to see if it does in fact yield results.
So, pick a trade with a stop and a target price and don't sell until the stop or target price is triggered, however long it takes. Just make sure these prices have a rationale behind them.
Sorry, Should have said at the top:
"Knowing where to get in is the first part of the trade. The second part is knowing where to get out."
Hi again D,
Know where to get is the first part of the trade. The second part is knowing where to get out.
You can work that to what suits you but a couple of example might be a fixed profit rise, say 10% or waiting for a particualr SP to be reached.
If you decide on a SP value as to when to sell then there should be a logic as to why you think it will get there as opposed to it being just an arbitary number.
This is important as using TA, there will be trades that don't work out so its important to max the profits and minimise the losses.
The inexperienced or poor trader will take profit too early and allow losses to run to far.
Typically, but as I say not universally, if a support level is seen as an entry point then a fall below that level should trigger a stop for a small loss. Before entering the trade an exit price to the the next resistance point would be a logical target.
The risk reward ration should always be AT LEAST 3-1.
(EG you buy at 100p with a stop loss at 95p and a target of 115p, (risk 5p,gain 15p therefore 3-1) But these figures should be based on what has happened previously and not just plucked from the air.
Money management is critical if using TA which is why you never bet with more than you can comfortably afford to lose so that whatever decision you feel you have to make you are neither concerned about the loss or that the gain will make you greedy for more.
'So I am not looking or expecting to get in at the very bottom, but when I do buy , my trade never goes into negative territory at all.'
I think I will have to work towards that. The fact I'm not there is because I can't detach myself from the company. I probably should have moved the SNG money elsewhere but I'm just glad to have more than when I started..
I did buy some AVCT at 109 (with money I wasn't prepared to lose) so I sold them too early at 119 or thereabouts which I was pleased with at the time. Then used the money to pay off some of a mortgage where interest cost is 6%.
II think you are right about getting small amounts of profit. It seems to work and they will all add up.
Hi D, I use the rsi based on the time frame I am using.
On stocks I expect to hold for several days and weeks and sometimes months, I use longer timed charts
As a result these longer time frames means on HL I use the 12 month charts and for a bit more clarity the 3 month charts (same info, but sometimes easier to read on the 3 month), with the RSI overlaid. Easy to see support and resistance levels.
The only time I use the week or day chart is if I am looking to get back in on a retrace and don't want to wait for a closing price .
An example would be say, ABDX falls to 6.25p intra day and I buy there because it may then move during the day and finish back at 7p or higher at close.
My indicator of a successful trade is when I buy it does not fall from there, even if it then goes back up.
So I am not looking or expecting to get in at the very bottom, but when I do buy , my trade never goes into negative territory at all.
So far AVCT at 111p for instance is a good example as was my purchase at 133p last week.
Just bought SNG back with the money from Friday. Just over 500 'free' shares, thanks to RSI..
Good morning Wyn, many thanks for that. I hadn't checked RSI but the graph shows higher-highs etc. I will look at the RSI in the days ahead.
On Friday I sold 1/3 of my SNG as the RSI reached 90 and I recall you saying 90 is a definite flag. I was a bit nervous this morning but so far, so good. Because of the spread I still can't quite get back what I sold but it's heading that way.
Can you just clarify what setting you judge RSI? Is it with the chart on the day or week, and then the hourly or 15 minutes etc? SNG was clearly overbought after 2 days of rises so it was pretty clear but often the RSI results change quite a bit on the setting.
AVCT doing well at the moment :-)
Morning D.
Right now abigdon has got a double top in place at 7p. However its a log way from being triggered but some may have take profit as it reached a recent high. the importnat buying signal will be if/when it brakes 7p
You might have noticed the RSI was 80 at 7p. If it continues to fall and you are bullish than a target of 6.25p would be the obvious place to buy some on the gamble it will rise, but the "safer" option is to wait and see if 7p is broken.
I tend to use the half and half strategy if I think a share is retracing rather than falling.
So I would add half my new funds at 6.25p and the other half at 7p plus. But thats me and not meant to be advice.
All the best