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There has been a strong market sell off in the last days, fuelled by inflation and acceptance that higher interest rate environment is coming.
Toe sectors do very well in inflationary / high interest rates environments - financials and commodities. My expectation is that Investor money is going to recirculate out of tech darlings / crypto and into these two sectors. With EUA one does not only get commodities but future green focused commodities, PGM and Nickel which are likely to be in high demand most of this decade.
As for Russia/Ukraine risk, we should just forget this. There is not going to be any huge war. Russian commodities businesses are doing well - NN, Eurochem, Polyus the Oil companies etc. An EUA Moscow listing is going to be very beneficial longer term and will result in its assets being priced properly and not with the Wests "Russia discount".
Don’t think the markets will ‘just forget’ Russia/Ukraine current issues.
Most commentators saying tensions are going to further increase commodity prices
is the Ukrain the main target of Putin or something else ?, while everyone focused on war the real agenda is somewhere else.
Is he actually pushing buttons so that sanctions ARE imposed ?, if SWIFT imposed then transaction would likely be of radar to the west using local currencies/gold or whatever - what effect would this have on the dollar/petrodollar/eurodollar ?
just out of the box thought
Look at Kim in NKorea. Loads of noise and he’s gone quiet. Russia is a more serious threat and power. But war would destroy them more than they would hurt others.
Not going to happen.
Ps. On the sell off here it looked pretty clear for Eua we hit a new recent height. Shorters saw an opening and MM obliged, during this someone was picking up more shares as they probably expected not to see 25-26p again.
Heard something on the radio today suggesting they maybe looking for a re-negotiation of the 1945 Yalta Treaty.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference
@Dealer55
I wouldn't be to sure about Russia's intentions. You don't transport troops and equipment 5000 miles from the east for a training exercise. They are aware that NATO will not intervene militarily. Sanctions may hurt them in the short term but they could just retaliate by switching of the gas supply.
IMO it is 60:40 that they will invade which will lead to some turmoil on the markets. Be nice to sell our assets before any invasion.
picardy9
Your 60/40 is based on what reshearch / information. please could you provide details, or is it just a wild guess.
I would say it utter nonsense what you suggest . Putin has no intentions on invasion - it's a barter. Where the heck to you think Gas,Oil, and PGMs go , yes China but a huge amount to the West. And to say it's short term is rubbish.
Old school politics..., he needs to make himself look powerful everywhere and that includes back home. It's not necessarily all for the West to look at. Do really think he is going to make it difficult for the companies that have made him so much money??
He's got the Americans round the table and discussing things....he just managed to grab the attention he wanted....pretty simple ..
Exactly like Kim. If you want to be taken seriously as a threat the threat must look credible. Like sending troops and letting rockets off. America will use strong words then they will concede or move to a new issue.
Calamari - or mr t whatever you nobody said they they knew exactly what Putin was going to do .....Specsavers lol...
Someone needs to take out Putin
Just a despot thug !
I think russian people are getting sick of his war mongering attitude !
Apparently he’s the most powerful and rich man on the planet. I’d leave it.
What? The Russians love Putin! They can’t get enough of his shirtless on horse/judo kit sabre rattling. What planet are you on?
Hopefully domentia or cancer will polish him off !