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I'm sure you'll do whats right for your business Ports.Interesting that in Royal Mails update of late September they say that they think the domestic parcels market will be sustained above pre covid levels which I suppose proves the business is there for DX to exploit in the courier sector.I take your point though that soldiers on the ground are the most important to exploit it.Soon after this update Royal Mails SP followed the similar percentage fall to DX in late Sept/October which have been bad months for sentiment.
Nothing really to add. It's all been said by some intelligent/sensible posters in my view.
Those that read my posts will know that I have been using the DX volume 24/48 hour courier service for our business.Well I have stopped now really because there are to many problems currently and I needed to go to a business with a greater geographical logistical coverage.ie royal mail et al.I can't say it is much of a surprise .That isn't a reflection of my confidence in DX in the next few years ... on the contrary !
Stopped the bleeding though, right?
PS: Agree with the trading update point Sister.
The announcement yesterday was welcome but there has been no real sentiment reaction, it hasn’t to date stimulated any significant demand so the markets are pretty blasé about it. Maybe that will change next week as we get closer to results. I feel DX have to answer the question everyone is thinking in a bit of detail. To what extent is current trading being affected by the current labour shortages and supply chain problems and is it affecting current and future expansion plans??. I hope we get that in the results RNS.
Should soon be back into the 30s, I would have thought. I'm already overweight, so must leave it to others to take advantage of the current bargain basement price.
Indeed Everton - very good news and the SP has responded already. This could be taken as an indication that the delay was a very significant reason for the drop we have seen over the last couple of weeks.
Good news - results on the 8th November confirmed
Thanks for responses. It’s always interesting and helpful to hear different viewpoints when the conversation is neutral. Suggest there is consensus amongst most that the radio silence (however caused) is negative for SP performance but difference of opinion as to what level, amongst other factors. All good with me.
Exactly Sister !
DX have of course issued a one line trading update saying that trading in the new financial year is in line with expectations but really they need to address the elephant in the room.
True but my view is that Wincanton and Clipper are much bigger businesses and more established.
Dx are the disruptors if you like and the hardest position to be in and more likely to be buffeted in this climate. I don't run a business but If I did I'd probably use the established business rather than the new kid on the block certainly in the current economic situation.There has been very little sp growth if any this calendar year despite lots of positive news and the growth last year came from Director buying/depot growth rather than financials.We have a good guide as to what the figures will be from year end from previous company announcements and the markets know this.Unless of course the markets feel there is more to it than GT just making a mess of things. But the Auditor that posted doesn't feel this is the case. I guess we'll see how the markets react when we eventually get the figures.Dx could ofcourse choose to reassure the markets at any time with a trading update but nothing is forthcoming.
Sister - I do think the Results delay is a really big factor. I agree that the sector has taken a bashing but other companies are bouncing back. Check the 3 month SP graphs for Wincanton & Clipper, they are remarkably similar in terms of a tick up. Not so DX.
Fair comments Sister. I admire your confidence buying in.
Too much of a blurry picture and economic uncertainty for me.
Ports.I don't think the offer euro drivers will affect DX.I thought they were short term contracts ending December/March to help with the short term problems. I do take your point moving forward.DX must be swimming against the tide with driver and staff shortages and would seem common sense not to burden with expansion if there are labour shortages in the business.
I don't think the Grant Thornton shambles is the cause of the depressed SP.It hasn't helped but sentiment is so negative towards the sector and Dx are affected more than most as they are the new kid on the block trying to expand in this climate. It's probably not a time to be all things to everyone which Dx seem to want to be.
I think we'll see some immigration changes next year as there is very little new young blood coming into the industry. The road haulage association has some very interesting comments on all this.I know of a coach operator in my neck the woods who has lost five drivers to HGV as they can earn over 25% more at the moment.
Inspite of all that I have bought in again today.Target price for me 40p which I hope to see in Mid to late 2022.It will be interesting to see if there are any PDMR buys after results declaration as I can't see the SP will be very far from its current levels.
Absolutely Pianista it probably was. I am not sure of the need of an rns. I think those issues are already factored in. I know from my own experience that It’s obvious that DX are struggling like all carriers to deal with existing business.
It doesn’t make sense to embark on depot openings if they are struggling to deal with existing business so I think some depot openings may possibly be delayed depending on the lease agreements that may be in negotiation. It seems the govt offer to euro hgv drivers has had pretty paltry response so driver transport problems could be with us for at least a year.it’s really just part of my justification for saying DX face particularly strong headwinds in the expansion strategy and there is a very long way to go in my option.
ports - the comment by DX is obviously on Facebook as a general response - or excuse if you like - to the dissatisfied customers who are posting there. If the problem were material to trading, it would be RNS’d.
The whole industry is affected to a greater or lesser extent, but as long as DX can stay ahead of the competition, I think that’s all that matters.
There is pinned notification on the DX Facebook page informing of driver and general labour problems dated around the 10 Sept. it seems DX are not immune. The next trading update will be interesting.
Thanks for the imput ps65. i agree that dx would want the results out before deadline. dx certainly wouldn't want a headline that they have been fined for late filing no matter whose fault it was or how much it was.
i take your point on lloyds history and the growth to date has really been about modernising and turning around a rather antiquated and clunky system. The headwinds at the minute will not have been experienced before... A pandemic that has decimated the worlds economies and supply chains, problems in china manufacturing, brexit complications and a growing labour shortage together with substantial inflationary pressures.Turbulent times in which to aggressively grow a business that relies on supply chains. As i have said before it is a very tough ask to continue this trajectory in these times.
i do like the website, much better than the last update. lloyd talks very well and it is very easy to get swept up in his enthusiasm like vox have in my opinion. I admire his objective to be the best but its very difficult on the price driven aspects of their revenue streams and you are competing with companies who have much bigger war chests. There isn't the depot geographical coverage currently to achieve best in class service and there are vast areas of the country that are pretty thin on the ground for coverage. So to achieve their objectives of being the best in their field we are probably looking at atleast 50 more depots and 500 vehicles plus moving forward.. there is no doubt dx have done exceptionally well to date but using a running analogy i think we are about 3 miles into a marathon.
Interesting to see lloyd dunn jnr as sales director maybe he'll be in charge in 5 years or so when i think i might still be posting on the this board.
PS65 - the auditor definitely won’t be James Ledward, because he was with KPMG, who were replaced as DX’s auditors about a year ago after DX ran a beauty contest.
The fact that 20/21 is therefore GT’s first audit of DX makes the current delay more understandable (though ultimately there’s no excuse).
The next we’ll hear from DX should be an RNS announcing the date GT expect to complete the audit. Let’s hope it’s soon, and that GT's chastening experience with Patisserie Valerie doesn't make them unduly confrontational towards DX.
PS65 - thanks for your interesting and balanced post. SP sub 30p now and so maybe a buying opportunity if the slide continues.
Thanks for the welcome Ports. I’ve been into DX for a few years now and reading the comments but didn’t particularly feel the need to comment until it was mentioned the delay to the accounts/audit was due to significant and negative breaches (something I felt was certainly wrong and could unfairly panic other investors)
It’s difficult to explain the timing from the outside, perhaps Newstead thought he’d just get a slap on the wrists, who knows. There’s also a chance a significant part of the audit has been done, as the partner only really gets involved in the planning and signing off.
Perhaps other staff and Partners have been taken off other jobs to finish off his audits. They would probably have to re-do his work and maybe do extra work as there is a good chance of the files being inspected.
Interestingly the audit partner last year was James Ledward, however it is standard practice to swap the auditor every few years anyway to have a fresh set of eyes, so there’s no saying he would be the auditor this year.
I would think DX would push for filing before the deadline, however realistically the penalties for being late would be insignificant in the grand scheme of things anyway (£750 for 1 month upto £7,500 for 6 months)
I agree it’s disappointing to see the SP slide the way it has, however I am in for the medium to long term so I am fairly comfortable as I think this is temporary. Lloyd has a history of building these companies up and selling on. He founded Nightfreight, made it extremely profitable and sold it to DX. He then took over at Tuffnells, took it from losing money to decent profits and then sold it to Connect Group. Now he has put millions of his own funds into DX, and again has turned it around from big loss making to profitable. He owns >10% of the company and hasn’t sold a single share, this tells me he knows there is more to come from this.
Ports.. Thanks for pointing it out. I think it's a really clear and concise website and a nice interview with lloyd. Much brighter and customer focussed and tells a good story. Everything seems easy to find. I like that they only put the 5 star trust pilot reviews on the website. Not daft are they.
Hadn’t seen the new website Ports, so thanks for pointing it out.
Homework fail!
Pleased to see DX have updated their website.
Nice to have a new poster... welcome ps65.
whilst i agree that it is not unsual for audits to be delayed.. the timing one week before results were due smells of very poor communication between gt and dx. if newstead was the auditor involved surely there must have been some signposting of possible sactions and how this would affect the dx outcome. if a new statory auditor has only been appointed recently then surely we are looking at weeks - 4/6 plus... they may even need permission for late filing. Perhaps ps65 would enlighten us on his thoughts.
Cheslsea is right though... this pregnant silence affects sentiment which in turn affects the sp. openings have been signposted so i can't see anything positive that we don't already know that isn't already priced in . i think we'll be languishing around 30 for a good while yet unfortunately.... certainly until we have further transparent communication.