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It seems unlikely there that is anyone else in for DX. I think we would have heard by now and I have factored that in to my thinking.Just about two weeks until HIG have to declare unless any further extension. It's worth considering that if HIG signal their intention to offer they have 28 days or so I think to submit the offer proposal so this is whole thing is probably going to drag on until at least February if HIG proceed with an offer.
I have been reducing my exposure recently as I'm alittle less convinced HIG will make an offer or an offer of the level mooted despite the good figures and 40p was always my exit point as a turnaround so its just a matter of reducing risk and following my strategy that I shouldn't ignore just because there is a possible offer floating around.
A significant move this morning. Something is about to change?
ADVFN chat board, mention counter bid from another interested party.
No idea if it’s from a reliable source, anyone heard anything?
I don't think there is any rival bid knocking around. We are supposed to hear something on Monday and I'm favouring a further extension. I think the due diligence is taking quite a bit of time especially with the Tufnells implications but who knows. Interesting that the two most recent letters of intent from lloyd and Gatemore make no mention of acceptance at 45p which they had in the first letter of intent.
I won't be seeing this through to the conclusion but it's certainly been an interesting ride with DX.
Morning all
I echo the sentiments in relation to a rival bid and a further extension which incidentally is the general consensus on the ADVFN chat board too.
The other point of note, notwithstanding that it has been mooted to the nenth degree, is that £0.485 is a very low offer. However, with no other offers on the table and Gatemore and Lloyd's blessings, I cannot see the BOD refusing HIGs bid.
I also believe that £0.485 less any £0.01 in respect of the dividend is the minimum offer that Gatemore and Lloyd will accept and the BOD will recommend.
If I had other investments or even an iota of knowledge about the stock market I too would call it quits after payment of the dividend, Ports. But I'm going to hang on and hope that the final offer will be higher than 48.5 even though that is beyond wishful thinking and quite daft of me.
The question is what will I do once, and IF, DX Group is taken over?! : )
It's a fab position to be in particularly when only a year or ago there was such turmoil...
Do please keep those pearls coming. As I've said before, this BB is full of folk who extend respect and courtesy to novices like yours truly and I for one am very grateful for your benevolence.
Thank you & GLA.
Should have read Nth not nenth degree!
Now is the right time for board to tell HIG to either up their offer over 60p or walk... Lloyd and Gatemore surely will realize the share will be above 50p after the Xmas boom.
Why would HIG not make the formal offer yet? I think they know the value of the company is going up and can only go up so their no-offer-yet seems to make no sense.. Do they want DX or not?... If not they would have already walked off... . so, in my book, it is very unlikely this further extension/ delay to offer has anything to do with due diligence... I suspect Gatemore or Lloyd or both have reviewed their initial recommendation. Basically I think they want more and they are busily negotiating about it
I don't know if Lloyd or Gatemore are negotiating anything. Their new letters of intent dated about a week ago say they are happy to accept 48.5p incl the 1p dividend. Due Diligence does take time particularly with a company like DX that is quite diverse in it's operations and infrastructure. I don't think there is anything remotely unusual here. We have an x - dividend date of the 17th of November, extension until the 20 November and an AGM on the 23rd November. It all looks quite cosy to me and I think we'll see the offer as i said at 47.5p. What's that corporate speak that drives me bonkers.... something about ducks in a row. !!
Very interesting to read the opinions on this board. Also came across the following on ADVFN.
"This potential bid has actually held the shares back since it has capped the upside for the past couple of months - without that, and on the basis of the last strong update, the shares may well have gone beyond 50p by now."
I cannot see why the company or its shareholders would agree to the offer price being reduced by the value of any dividend declared given that the dividend would be taxed at higher rates than the capital gain. Better to have no dividend and a 48.5 pence bid.
Any views on the 2 posts I came across?
Well the first paragraph is just opinion Deep which we are all entitled to. Who knows what the share would have done if the possible offer hadn't come in. In my opinion it would still be in the mid 30's, In the writers opinion it could have gone beyond 50p, in another it could have gone above 70p. I don't really see how a potential bid holds a share price back , I'd be interested if they qualified that...I would certainly learn something.
The second I simply don't understand and doesn't really mean anything in my view. It depends on the time frame of the capital gain, income level etc, etc. Individiual tax positions are different. It's a bit vague... a bit like some of my posts. !!
Is it vague? That certainly was not my intention when I posted it. An additional rate taxpayer will pay marginal dividend tax rate at 39.35% (a higher rate tax payer, at 33.75%). The same taxpayers will pay only 20% capital gains tax. It would seem odd to me for a substantial shareholder to opt for an income receipt, rather than a capital gain.
Of course, I accept that that distinction is immaterial for a shareholder with a very modest shareholding, or somebody who holds their shares within a tax efficient wrapper. But that wasn’t the target demographic for my post (or the cohort of shareholders to whom I was referring).
I’m so sorry if that wasn’t clearer.
I should have added that in the absence of indexation, the time frame of the capital gain seems to me to be irrelevant. Unless I’ve missed something.
Given DX is on accelerated growth am very VERY puzzled by the lack of at least one competitor- so far... Very puzzled...What is it HIG sees that the others don't or can't see?... That's the big mystery
Tax is very complicated and i’m not sure lengthy discussion is of much interest here. We’ll all make our decision when the offer comes whatever it is.
E mail raises an interesting point. What is it that HIG can see and no one else can ? Perhaps they can but don’t want a bite at the cherry… perhaps it doesn't fit with their strategy… perhaps it not the right time. There could a multitude of reasons.perhaps they are not prepared to pay 45p plus. We probably will never know.
What about trade interest. Are the big parcels carriers going to be interested in a company with 1 to 2% marketshare. In parcels .All DX really have that is attractive is 25% to 30% market share of IDW. Thats the largest… there are competition rules etc.why would someone take that service on board if it alien to them or doesn’t fit with their strategy. Its not as simple as DX are on
Accelerated growth, profitable etc so its a no brainer. …Get your money out lads ?
HIG obviously have a strategy for DX and its quite clear the DX board are onboard with that strategy.
Many thanks Ports, Everton and Email for your invaluable opinions and comments.
As Ports and others have already alluded to, the fact that there haven't been any other interested parties illustrates that HIG have a clear run ahead and they intend to take all the time to carry out their DD or whatever to be fully satisfied of their investment.
Let's see what today brings, although I can't imagine it would be much different to the last few weeks. Hope I'm very wrong and the SP rockets. : )
Good luck and thank you for indulging me, again.
A little bit ungracious. You observed that my post was vague, that you didn’t understand it, and that it didn’t really mean anything. I tried to explain why it was on point by reference to differential tax rates. The point is a simple (and for those with large holdings, material) one. I will leave it to others to decide whether it’s of much interest - although I appreciate it’s not of interest to you.
Fair comment and apologies, nothing untoward was meant. You have explained your view better. I didn't think a protracted discussion on the intricancies of tax on here was very beneficial on here but perhaps it is and anyone can feel free to bring it up if they wish. It's just my view and others can decide absolutely.
Thank you Portswigger. I appreciate your response. Best wishes to you with your investment.