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Thanks rivaldo, I think all things considered we are not doing too badly - apart from the well documented issues around FFB availability / mill capacity / dilution / share price / cashew ramp up.
WH Ireland's update note out today is unsurprisingly rather positive given the November update (hi jk400, I get mine from Research Tree).
They note that DKL are "well on track to exceed our production estimates for the full year".
The CPO division alone is forecast to achieve around €6.0m of EBITDA this year, before cashew division initial costs, against the £11.5m m/cap.
They summarise:
"November production update: Another record month sets up strong end to FY2023
Yesterday’s production update from DKL illustrates another exceptional month for the group this year, with November’s crude palm oil (“CPO”) production up over 150% YoY – a record performance – putting the group well on track to exceed our production estimates for the full year. Strong CPO production in the month was a result of both above-average availability of fresh fruit bunches (“FFBs”) from local producers and excellent extraction rates achieved at DKL’s mill (21.7%), resulting in production of 3,875 tonnes for the month, a 152.4% increase on FY2022. While we note that CPO pricing has decreased from the near-record levels seen last year, down from €1,042 to €778 / tonne, prices remain supportive of healthy gross margins at these levels and only marginally below our long-term target of
€850/tonne.
Looking ahead, we anticipate positive developments for the group as it continues to ramp up production at its cashew project going into FY2024E and await further
updates in Q1 2024. With a strong performance from the palm oil project expected this year (anticipated ca. €6.0m of EBITDA at a divisional level in FY2023) and the cashew project expected to swing to a positive cash contribution next year, we view DKL as well placed ahead of its full year update in January and retain our current fair value target of 9.5p."
"Forecasts / Valuation
Yesterday’s update underpins expectations for a strong performance from the palm oil project this year and we leave our FY2023 forecasts unchanged this morning. With the palm oil business continuing to perform strongly and significant upside in the cashew project as production increases, we retain our fair value at 9.5p."
Rivaldo, are you having issues signing in to WH Ireland?
It won't let me in for some reason and, although unlikely, it would be interesing to see whether yesterday's news has affected their target price.
Zak Mir puff piece at 4:29:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJrXaJRKvE8
Let's have a look at just how good the CPO production improvement is...so prior to this update:
July '23 (t) 2231, vs July '22 (t) 929
Aug '23 (t) 1416, vs Aug '22 (t) 1024
Sep '23 (t) 2149, vs Sep '22 (t) 1296
Oct '23 (t) 1723, vs Oct '22 (t) 1677
So as you can see increased production in every single month with standout improvements in July and September. Now add November's numbers:
Nov' 23 (t) 3875, vs Nov '22 (t) 1535.
The turnaround is phenomenal and I make it 76% year on year growth for the first five months in H2. Now the part DKL have no control over, the palm oil price, is down 23% but the improvement in production dwarfs the change in selling price.
More of the same and 2024 will be a great year for shareholders.
Actually, at such a crucial juncture one swallow may actually make a summer here.
As I've previously pointed out DKL is at a very pivotal point, get through this period in one piece, making all debt repayments and reaching cash positivity on the cashew side and this recovers considerably, but fail and god knows how low it can go.
So the continued improvement in CPO production is very timely.
Harchris, the board can't take credit for this apparent turnaround in the same way that Rishi Sunak can't take credit for "halving" inflation. One swallow doesn't make a summer.
You seem to be forgetting that any supposed profit from this record November has already been wiped out - by the cashew facility still sitting idle.
Sorry if you only like to read good news and not 'deramping'.
One benefit of (not) being stale and old is a long enough memory to know the last time we had a "record" November, it was followed by a dreadful harvest - hopefully that doesn't happen this time.
I rarely bother looking at this BB any more. Largely dominated by some stale old share holders who should have sold up and moved on a long time ago.
The reasons for the poor SP performance are pretty obvious. A dreadful CPO year in 2022 save for the pricing and a 15/18 month delay in the ramp up of the cashew business.
CPO production has been excellent all year and the price decent. Cashews are showing signs of getting there. Hopefully they will contribute to the bottom line next year and not be a drag. They were originally forecast to be more profitable than the CPO side of the business, time will tell.
Incentivised yes. Does that guarantee success? Quite clearly not as we’ve seen. Will buying a few shares on the open market just to try to shut up your incessant moaning turn the company around or incentivise them any further ? No.
They are already incentivised is my point, they just haven’t delivered. Buying a few shares won’t make any difference. I’m pleased that finally there seems to be a material improvement in operations and am focusing on that rather than moaning day in day out whatever the results.
Terrific November production update.
Sales and FFBs processed are both hugely up on last year. Extraction rates are back up. Prices achieved are stable at high historic levels and margins are good.
The CPO results for the year were already going to be good - these should further enhance those numbers. Let's hope a year end cashew update continues to - finally - signal a smooth increase in production with no calamities, in which case the large potential upside here will start to feel like it's on the way :
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/dekel-agri-vision-DKL/share-news/Dekel-Agri-Vision-PLC-Record-November-Palm-Oil-Production-Update/92768969
Incentivised enough to oversee an SP of 20p reduced down to 2p you mean Harchris? Incentivised enough to continually issue shares instead of paying cash for piddling amounts thus diluting their ahem incentivisation? Incentivised enough to issue warrants for shares most of which are worthless under their stewardship? Hmm!
They own more than enough shares to be fully incentivised to see this turn around and from this update that appears to be what's happening. More of the same combined with film and strengthening CPO prices through 2024 and we'll be looking at least 5p.
So will the board pile in now the update is in the public domain? After all they have driven the SP down to these levels due to carelessness incompetence and a range of other 'qualities' that our board bring to the table. I await with bated breath. . Wow wonder whether we can break 2p again today which I am sure the BOD would be chuffed at after overseeing a 90% drop in the SP
Record monthly production at 3875t CPO - now we’re talking. Material improvement being seen.
This will filter through to the sp once the healthier accounts are released.
HarChris you really are a throwback to when I and others used to post such things as an indicator of tailwinds under which DKl would propel forward. I wouldn't bother if I were you because if it was raining soup DKL would have a fork. But if its any consolation I expect as we are probably due an update Rivaldo will be along in a minute with a post about a 9.5p target price in dome broker note or other.
Great Post Danny! I think most investors have lost faith in these charlatans as you couldn't believe a word that comes out their mouth. Driving the company into the ground while issuing shares in lieu of payment taken as a sign of confidence in the company would you mind! It seems to have escaped their attention that all these shares exchanged in lieu are worth a fraction over time of what they would have got in cash under their stewardship which makes the arrangements very fishy indeed. Scratch a liar and you find a thief underneath. Indeed.
Disappointing to see palm oil prices unable to hold around the $4000/oz mark, that really would make a difference right now especially with thousands of tonnes of inventory built up this year.
London stock exchange i heard have problems
To sell any shares despite knocking off all the zeros down to just 100. But the same goes for buying.....Wonder what is happening ?
The last thing we want is anybody buying us out at anything like these prices.
I bought in years ago as I liked the story. A new business, creating something, supporting local farmers, growth and sustainability.
This has all changed and I don’t like it all all anymore and am just holding a small position and will exit if it breaks even.
The broken promises, disorganisation, setting up other ventures that are then bought out, paying staff in shares as if it’s a technology company, endless issuing of shares and incompetence of completing things for years have left a rather sour taste in my mouth.
We thing the share price should improve at these levels, but we thought that at 6p, 4p and 3p already.
The best you can hope for now (if the business is actually any good) is that a bigger company buys this out, but they never pay an astronomical premium … maybe double of what it is, but that’s it.
Simo, I can't say I'm overly worried at this point despite the recent sell off. It's nothing we haven't seen before after large sales, there's a domino effect of others piling in and a race to the bottom.
It's clearly not good, but if they can get the cashew facility up to capacity - bearing in mind it's now the best part of 3 years late, despite the rhetoric - then some positivity should quickly return.
Bought a vastly overvalued cashew business. Some made a good bit out of that. What next. Their share holdings aren't retia dividend but I assume there are annual bonuses. All at the expense of us.
Collusion between broker and company. Their can be no logical basis to the broker's estimate of price. It would all be totally laughable, except the broker will have influenced some people to buy over a number of years with their "spin" (I can't call it research). So the BOD should fire the broker, and then fall on their own swords. It is virtually impossible for long term "investors" to ever break even here, because if the company ever does really get it's act together, it will be taken over by a bigger company at a premium to the SP at the time, but at 4 or 5 figure losses to the many of us. The whole outfit just stinks, purely IN MY obviously clueless HUMBLE OPINION, of course. I dread to think what great news will be heading our way tomorrow - I am not saying the company is leaky, but the word "sieve" comes to mind. Hapless, spineless management.