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Driftking: "Think we need to look at pubs and what is happening with the consumer trend"
The whole of Europe accounts for around 20% of Diageo's sales. What happens in UK pubs does not have a lot of affect on Diageo's profits.
The positive updates from LVMH and Remy Cointreau sending DGE up but hoping the numbers next Tuesday are a beat with an upbeat statement otherwise can see the sp giving back today's gains. Trimmed my holding just in case...
Gap up before earnings? Hmmm im gonna wait until after now as ive seen this pattern many times before, its likely to fill that gap at 2700 could go lower too but watching for now.
Decent tick up 2800p ++
Https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/01/diageo-turns-off-direct-supply-to-wholesalers-below-2m-threshold/
DGE will use 10 major wholesalers in the UK ......... bad move in my opinion.
Their secondary product ranges will take a huge hit!
Wholesalers who have been delisted will purchase MUST HAVE DGE brands from one of the 10, however, the same delisted wholesalers will NOT promote DGE "me too" secondary brands.
This is a classic accountant blunder.
Think we need to look at pubs and what is happening with the consumer trend. Pubs are not as busy more so due to the economic downturn with Cody of living. The issues due to cost of living in my view will continue if the market does see an uptick, causing inflation to rise again.
So it’s really a nasty cycle.
It’s still a wait on this one… RSI is still sitting as a Strong SELL.
If we see current EPS is 161p, abd with expectations for this to be revised doen to 148-151p, then that’s a clear 6.5% drop in EPS, so SP to 2500p. Then we have the oversold possibility going to 2400p.
So, believe me, don’t touch until after results.
DGE central strategy over the last decade plus has been premiumisation - if that consumer trend is reversing DGE may have a big headache ahead.
And I do own nearly a 1000 since 2007. I’m just pointing newbies in right direction to wait.
Good call by bears here
Sorry, mistake on numbers. Estimates was 180p for EPS by 2027, not 2025
Still has STRONG SELL indicators on graph today…
Though, I’m not adding more yet until after news…can see market pullback due to 2/3 ‘s of S&P 500 stocks being expensive.
Market has still to react to the results. This is where we will undoubtedly see a big fall for last 6months of falls.
On a graph, the SELL signal has been broken for a few weeks since I restarted watching this behemoth.
We’re loooing maybe at 151p soon in results, but in 2025 could see that sane period reach 180p Iv see estimates revised to on Nasdaq.
So, in essence, Imic you were new, I’d drip feed 1/3 in now, then hold 6months and review and top up 1/3 then another 1/3 2025. That way you get fluctuations in markets and companies growth strategy.
Iv played most stocks like so for 21yrs
Morgan Stanley maintains DGE underweight 23.80p on 23rd January.
Let's see next Tuesday. 2024 Forward Estimated EPS 151.25p (17 analysts' average consensus)
2025 Forward Estimated EPS 164.14p
2026 Forward Estimated EPS 175.88p
gla
Earnings report on 30th though. how will market react?
I've always wanted some of these! I've bought in today too. First tranche. This is one I am happy to average down on from
here if it keeps dropping.
Was suppose to say Linsdell Train have added more shares.
Just bought some dge shares, they are doing a lot of buybacks and kinda fell train have added more. Looks a good entry point currently
Berkshire Hathaway's Diageo plc - ADR Stake
Warren Buffett acquired 228 Thousand Diageo plc - ADR shares worth $31.6 Million. That's 0.01% of their equity portfolio (36th largest holding). The investor's estimated purchase price is $40.2 Million, resulting in a loss of 21%.
THE messiah did BUY a few 292,000 in Jan 2023 in the disclosure, maybe he has been acclimating since then.
But remember, it’s NIT BUFFET running show and pressing the buy. He has his associates that do this.
He has bought GSK sold it at a loss, he bought all top pharma’s and sold in Jan 2923. Silly that was. They have outperformed many shares tbh.!
Good luck, still watching here, and looking at buying more Goldman very soon…
Sold 509 shares this morning for a tidy profit. Will keep around 800 shares in here for the future. Looks good.
Oop! I meant to type 2,675p!
I concur with the 2,650p call. I'm looking at front running that level and taking an initial position at 2,750p.
Buy a 40.3M shares here last year?
Watch and see any possitive movement around 2650p. That’s where I will be purchasing more, and hopefully others too.
The only trouble we have now, is the pubs / restaurants trend is not as flush as it were in 2021/22.
So, there may be more headwinds due to price pressure, along with the canal SUEZ, which they say effects could last the whole yr with delays in imports…
This is the one reason why DGE & co may continue to falter
‘…Magnificent Seven Loses Importance as Soft Landing Means Risk On’.