Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Looks like Hardman have put out some updated research, in truth it does not look very different to the numbers they put out almost a year ago. But I guess they felt the need to have something recent ahead of the corporate presentation they are hosting this coming week.
https://www.hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/exciting-growth/
Goodbody,
Great find and I see from their twitter feed that they are also looking for some one in the US for research and development. I take 2 positives from this. Firstly that they expect Chondromimetic approval in the near term and secondly they are not too worried about cashflow if they can bring on two relatively senior hires. The outlook really is very solid.
https://www.collagensolutions.com/sites/default/files/careers/chondromimetic_market_manager.pdf
The position, to be based in Europe, will work alongside the US commercial organization and UK-based operations and R&D groups to successfully launch the company’s first finished medical device, ChondroMimetic®.
Well said Tommy, I see we have a new major shareholder. Brett Gordon https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/COS/13977655.html
I think the sales price highlights how undervalued COS is at this point. At 215k for our @2.5% stake in Jellagen this implies a market cap of 8.6 million. To date Jellagen has no revenue to speak off and no proprietary products close to market. This is not meant to disparage Jellagen but it does serve to highlight that our valuation is very low, we have a 12.3 million market cap, revenues in excess of 5 million per annum. We are on the verge of cash flow breakeven we have a large development business that leads to long term sticky revenues and we have a pipeline of near term proprietary products. All that for just a 50pct more than the price of Jellagen.
COS sold its stake in Jellagen Ltd for approximately £215,000 in a private transaction. All helps with the cash flow while we wait for the Chondromimetic approval.
Dropped a chunk this afternoon but looking at the share trades above could not see why....holding for news of orders.
http://ir.collagensolutions.com/content/news/2019/180219.asp
Presenting at the Hardman Investor Forum
Trader250, David Evans is largest holder @ 43 million shares... Mr. Gillies holds @ 4.1 million shares about 1.28% still a very decent number.
I have followed this co for a while especially as I used to know Malcolm Gillies when he was a lawyer at S&W (I dealt with him on the other side of a transaction). He seems to be the largest shareholder here. I know a couple of folk who are connected with the company but they (quite rightly so) are giving nothing away! Slow but steady and one to watch.
Point well made .... radio silence for a while.
Re Shhhhh! Babbler might have a point given some more good news today.
Neither this board or the company needs to come to the attention of the pumpers and dumpers!. It would be great to see the sp above 5p but based on data and orders not hype.
No indeed ...... Also dont need to sell a lot of kits to have a very meaningful effect on company profitability. Even if a market is only good for 175 patients a year you are looking at at least GBP 150k to operating profit.
This is great news, the key point here is that it is a licence agreement. Having support to get regulatory approvals in asia is very positive.
Done all they can with EU approvals, passsed the audit, submitted the paper work; just have to wait it out now. Could happen at any point so i think they are just being a bit cautious about their previous time scales. Still time for it all to be approved this year. Isn’t the first company to be off a little with their forecast and certainly wont be the last!
shhhhhhhhhhhhh!
ChondroMimetic® Update
Distribution Agreement with Indonesian Partner and Update on CE Mark Process
Nice to sign up another distributor, probably not huge but nice none the less. Do I detect a bit of back pedaling on the CE Mark approval time line ? If that is the case it is not the end of the world but would still be a bit disappointing.
Website has now been updated.
Basically now has lettering saying ChondroMimetic® not available yet.
www.sandozmedica.com
Given there is no real guidance and that research is not making forward projections I thought it would be fun to have a bash, in the simplest way possible, at making some projections about profitability going forward. Please add input.
1. We have been told on a run-rate bases we will be EBITA positive by the end of this year. Using the first half accounts and doubling them gives us a revenue of 4.1 million and a LIBTA of - 1.32 million. So logically to eliminate a LIBTA hole of 1.32 million we would need to add revenue of @ 1.88 million at 70% margin. So that gives us year end revenue of 5.98 million as our EBITDA breakeven and the base for our 20/21/22 revenue projections. So if we exclude Chondromimetic as a separate item and grow our revenues at 15% per year and keep gross margins at 70%. Our FY 20 revenue becomes 6.87 million (EBITDA of 890k), FY 21 revenue of 7.9 million (EBITDA of 1.92 million), FY22 revenue of 9.08 million (EBITDA 3.1 million). So I have not inflated the SG&A since the base year I will correct for that by only taking in 85% or the EBITDA figure in to the final calculation.
2) Chondromimetic - I reckon GOP for this product is going to be @ 650 and I am using 1.5 sales per treated patient. I am going to be very conservative here with respect to uptake 800 patients FY20 (1,200 unit sales), 1,600 patients FY 21 (2,400 unit sales), 3,200 patients FY22 (4,800 unit sales). So that would equate to an additional contribution to EBITDA of FY20 -780k, FY21- 1.56 million, FY 22 - 3.12 million. Again will only take 85% of these figures to allow for higher SG&A costs.
That gives us
FY2020 EBITDA of -1.4 million - based on todays 13 million market cap = 9.2 x EBITDA
FY2021 EBITDA of - 2.9 million - based on todays 13 million market cap = 4.5 x EBITDA
FY2022 EBITDA of - 5.2 million - based on todays 13 million market cap = 2.5 x EBITDA
I have not factored in a capital raise, one may well be likely but I think there is a chance they can get away with out one. I also accept the Chondromimetic is a wild card and the sales, certainly in years 2 and 3 could be off in either direction by multiples of my numbers. If these number are even in the ball park the stock looks very cheap to me.
Tino, if you have missed it then so have I !!!
If the timetable, management have previously indicated holds then it cannot be long until CE mark. They have always said approval and first in man by end of 2018/2019 financial year. Only 2 months to go.
CE marking in Switzerland it appears is not mandatory!
https://www.s-ge.com/en/ce-marking
Tommy,
Just thinking about this.
So this isn't aimed at you so to speak.
Does this mean that the ChondroMimetic® product is for sale?
If so has CE Mark been approved?
Have i missed a few RNS's?
Hi Easyp.
Yes agreed but these values look like shares being sold and then bought again.
Probably from trade acc to ISA accounts?
Like the "bed and ISA"
Well that's what i think.
Cheers.
Liquidity is a good thing but any small company like COS can be prone to pumping and dumping but I do not think that is the case here. Rampers normally crowd messages onto boards claiming the share is about to bounce, take off, boom etc etc.
They have said they have signed up some distributors in Europe but not named any as of yet...
Seems Sandozmedica maybe one in Switzerland.... see the link below if you let the slider photo at the top run through its loop they are showing chondomimetic.
www.sandozmedica.com
Am i seeing the "Bed and Isa" strategy here with these sell and buys?
Anyone with more experience comment?