Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Blue blue blue
Glah
Are little atomic about to go boom
Puts hands in freezer:)
I will add it is based on us being fairly priced today, which it’s not even by the most pessimistic broker notes.
Also the Cuda addition will be added overnight literally at the stroke of a pen.
Sits on hands….
With you there Harry, good post.
Here’s a simpler calculation for production only, based on we have the current debt covered and are making a small annual profit on our hedged and unhedged quotient to do so. Ergo we are priced at approximately at 1.9p ps with a P/E ratio of 10 gets you to the current sp.
When you now add Cuda production at approximately 500bopd at full WTI it’s all profit and even including 30m of options to the share base it adds about 3.8p ps.
Using the same P/E ratio it gets you nearer to 60p ps at todays metric.
Do not lose sight this is an inclining production and more reserves will added as the year concludes. I maintain you will not recognise this company by year end.
Sits on hands…
Just took a back seat as there’s been so much bad posting and reading here, it got tiring that’s all, no worries, also really busy atm and not a lot of down time.
Apologies Wookie, I took your lack of posting for some time for being out.
My bad Sir.!!
Coplholer,
You seem to reference an historical sp and mcap 'pair' as the benchmark of value and use that to reason later sp-mcap pairs...
May I ask if you also calculated/estimated your own actual BFU-CC asset value and how that correlated to the sp-mcap 'pairs' you reference ?
- Do you run discounted cash flow (DCF) and then apply an additional Market discount or somesuch ?
- Do you use your own input criteria and/or accept Ryder-Scott's April 2021 input data ?...bit like someone helping with your homework and, even better as, they give you the answers too ! As a dumb Driller, I could only use RS's data....calculations may still be flawed but final answer within 1% of RS i.e. NPV10 $MM173 versus RS $MM174....'blind luck' ?
In Apr '21, COPL had ~148B shares £/$ 1.37. So, 2P reserve NPV10 $MM174 'fair' value criterion would imply sp 0.86p (86p post-consolidation).
If 'Mr. Market 'fair' value sp' was 38p, say, that would imply an additional 'Market discount factor' of ~56%....at that time....
So, what has happened to BFU-CC asset and COPL since ?...exclude discovery 100%...for now
- (Positive) Price of oil forecast revised upwards....how much NPV impact ?
- (Positive) COPL WI increased to 85%...how much impact ?
- (Negative) Extra $MM28 Capex for (unexpected) gas and oil plant upgrade during 2022/23 ?
- (Negative) Reduced '22 production from '21 forecast...how much impact ?
- (No impact) 19x BFU wells ($MM44), are already included in RS Apr '21 NPV, agreed ?
- anything else ?
Yes, DCF's are like opinions (and 'a'-holes ?), right ?...everybody has one !...but, hopefully, the 'rough' value and certainly whether positive or negative should be clear, right ?
FWIW, my RS '22 POO case, keeping all else the same, showed NPV10 $MM232. Although not the same as COPL-RS end of year '21 NPV10 $MM258 it seems encouraging as (a) ~$MM50 higher than original $MM174 (b) ~$MM30 lower than COPL-RS suggesting RS made additional changes upside changes ....
It seems more like 2x placings @20p have 'set the tone', to date, and influence Mr. Market more than asset value (as only short-long PI's given no 'real' institutional investors yet)....
Clearly, COPL must restore the planned inclining production trend to meet NPV assumptions regardless of sp-to-value 'conundrum'....
But, returning to your sp-valuation assessment....
- If you previously agreed with ~56% Market discount to RS 'Apr '21 valuation i.e. 38p 'fair' for 90p 'calculated' then applying the current RS Dec '21 value for projected share base with warrants++, say 250m shares, is ~36p i.e. £/$1.26 NPV10 $MM258 / 250MM shares less 56%)....yet you say 16-20p is 'fair'...are you saying the asset has actually diminished/lost value overall (despite POO and likely Cuda), and/or Mr. Market has rightly increased its discount factor to 76% ?...if you said 30p was 'fair' originally then today it should be 29p (all else being equal)....I might be the weakest link but what's the mis
Shouston I’ve never been out, old school investor, buy, hold and buy more if poss, not sold any yet, no trades just holding until we get a proper price and then will trade a bit. :) thanks though.
Apologies but my last post was not for this board! We do oil not gas.
Thursday and Friday are bank holidays.
Sparkz, got to give credit where credit is due,
Wookie is fighting from a strong position. He turfed but is clearly back in. Where as coplfiddler seems to be at odds with himself.
Or is it just simply odd? (Smart cookie, but not a great taste..)
The 90% you speak about have got it wrong at every turn tho…the share price seems to do the opposite of what you lot predict every time
Reckon your not looking at the bigger picture CH. but you do you, 90% here thought this would come back over £1-3 and look… but then no one foresaw the goings on, and predictions based on available info at the time..
Time will tell, I’m not making or saying predictions just looking at asset value and viable projection and that clearly makes many more optimistic than you currently.
Time will tell, but things looking up here now. Way I see it we are essentially running on our lowest setting and expect things to ramp up on multiple fronts.
Well I think this will be blue Monday
And Tuesday yep Wednesday. Thursday don’t do nothing then on Friday blue again, the old rod is twitching
Missed the bottom here.
Many positives sageman, I think there’s going to be some positive things happening regarding the hedged oil deal, multiple inbound triggers to elevate our cash flow!
Who thinks coplploder is peed off that he /she has the bottom here - desperate for sp not to rise on open on Monday - what a sad person coplploder is trolling here all his / her life.
U need to seek help for you mental health coplploder imo.
Gla genuine holders for a great week here next week.
Unless I am seriously mistaken we will have 100% of the production and no increase in hedged volume. Thus the hedge poses less risk to us. If we get the sidetrack and gas remains elevated our finances will be swiftly transformed.
Wookie
Just filter the narccist as they are NOT INVESTED as all of us here have done.!!!!!
Just argue when provided with facts.
Well seeing as we’ve been there already and traded to about 38p after I think we should easily get back there as is. If the report And Cuda is resolved then can’t see why that won’t equally help get back there and more.
End of the day though it’s all about capitalising the asset/s and that’s very likely to come in anyway in stages now. We are at a real turning things around phase in the company as we speak.
Way I see it and after talks with the team there is a genuinely good chance we’ll break a pound within the year all going well. But will see won’t we.
I don’t think 20p is a fair value of this company right now. At all.
I prefer Lapsong Souchong served at room temperature with one drop of virgin yaks milk poured from a Tokoname clay pot or Tetleys
Your retorts are laughable…but in a totally unfunny way. If you know what I mean
Sidney, nothing so sinister..
Twas a few laminated pictures of our 'Great Leader' from a few years ago sporting some canary yellow budgie smuggler's...
You have to admire Coplovers dedication to the cause...
Goes beyond even my fertile imagination.
Toots and pips...
Here fishy’s
Blue blue blue
Maybe different bait
I nearly fell of my bike
1.5 billion barrels
What will we be pumping in q3?
Gla
Tree just filter the clown as this is on the court website but they still try and de ramp as NOT INVESTED.
Maybe the hairy biker thinks they are better and more knowledgeable than a judge preciding in court whereas they are just a Walter mitty living on universal credits.!!!!