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possible that Jens is a pretty tough owner to work for?
tbf, sales have grown 2018-2021, more than doubled...and fcf +was briefly achieved
it's just 2022 (and ceo/cfo departures in particular) that make this v tricky (almost uninvestible atm)
with huge tax losses (how long can they be used?), any sniff of resumption of growth makes this v exciting again
but why not 3-5p first?
I liked his presentations, but to me it just seems that he has given it 2.5 years, cant improve the company, if anything its about to hit another rough patch, so he's off. I guess anything would seem a better offer in that situation. The company has had long enough to make this a success and the fact they cant is very telling. Doesn't matter how good the manager is if his hands are tied by lack of funds and opportunities, it wont matter who is next IMO Jolly.
I honestly think the issue is very basic here, costs too high (mainly staff), sales too low.
Probably other similar products (its only DDOS prevention, not rocket science). Lack of funds allowing growth i.e. developing other products. Company is stuck too much in the hardware sector, which the Chinese will dominate (even the sw ip on the hardware - again its only DDOS protection). They don't really have a moat do they. Its just a box you buy once in 5 years. Yes there is a little bit of SaaS, but the market for that must be tiny. Seems many stocks are now using bad news to exit AIM on the cheap. A few more poor updates and perhaps take private for £10M. Its not out of the realms of possibility is it. Throw in a huge discount placing to allow anyone connected to average down before selling out. Look at YGEN.
Corero was born in 2007, having already been on aim as Mondas I could only go back as far as 2004.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNS/change-of-name-mod2jz4dkofogph.html
Jens reversed himself in to this sometime between 06 and 11 (my notes not great)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNS/disposal-fund-raising-and-directorate-change-2am9mae8ybuyz6i.html
In Feb 11, they purchased Top layer networks (that was the IP that all of this is founded on).
Loads of placings and loan notes etc. Koch invests around 2017:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNS/holdings-in-company-00e8963sc92wrxc.html
He got diluted twice in 2018 & once in 2019
So since 2012 they have had 11 years at this now, and not really breaking even let alone through.
Good luck all, but better investments (to serve PI's) out there.
CEO given up ? just sounds like he got a better offer elsewhere, US Nasdaq companies in particular can provide more share options than UK. Top talent in the IT software sector get approached on a monthly basis.
But this together with the CFO, who left for a very similar sized AIM company after being promoted to the board, is more of a worry. Interesting to see where he goes, as he's not on gardening leave cannot be a direct competitor.
Not going to happen here I think, CEO has given up. That was Koch selling BTW, he has held these for years.
Time for PI's to give up.
resignation of ceo hardly inspires
I need to see who's the new ceo; see them buy shares; and see growth resume
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/87-largest-ddos-attacks-q4-targeted-telecoms-lumen?utm_medium=email&utm_source=nl&utm_campaign=FT-NL-FierceTelecom&oly_enc_id=8964I3021834D7S
Good article from one of their competitors.
looking to build up toward 500k
what's encouraging is that Koch really understands how a business should be run (pretty much across all markets/sectors)
I'm now going to scale back in...
Thanks both. Interesting previous holding / businesses aren't tech, but as you say a serious player.
Wonder what he saw in cns?
serious pedigree
Interestingly I think the holdings update is because he’s sold 700k worth. On CNS website, holders were updated on 11th Jan. He held 30,061,222. 6.01%
I think he has taken most of the shares off Miton at some point. Miton were selling and had 24.6mm at end of July per RNS. But I don’t see an update after that. They’re no longer listed.
I think this is Richard
https://twitter.com/richardkoch8020/status/1620889173736693760?s=46&t=YP7J4l6vmyFpQJrdhz4b1Q
Dartron.
On revenue you need to look at the gradual move from perpetual to recurring revenue, this is key. Look at ARR and contracted backlog, the haven't set of still it's just the rate of growth is slower. Renewal rates are top quartile.
Recurring revenue is valued at a multiple of perpetual in share cap.
They don't make acquisitions as they are in a small element of the cyber security market with an increasing but small TAM compared to the whole market, if you takeover a rival you then have two competing products / market uncertainty / management focus on integration rather than customers / employee worries. Most takeovers in tech simply don't work and destroy value.
No r&d budget???? They are within operating expenses.
Sales are focused on orders more than revenue, sales become effective after about 6 months and new hires may be new customer focussed.
A software / SaaS company is very highly levered, with a high % of incremental revenue going to the bottom line - you can work out breakeven based on a relatively fixed cost base.
Anybody know who this is, background, other investments?
On the plus side, they have stood still, rather than gone backwards, with revenue similar to 2021. Corero has 70 employees worldwide, I think the issue is that the admin costs, especially the development costs, make this company un profitable, hence why no takeover acquisitions. They had $5M cash from TU, so I expect this to have reduced in the next update. If that is the case, its just existing off placings. Are they going to manage to keep abreast of cyber developments with no R&D budget? How has the recent new hires to increase sales worked, with revenue down?
Jan 2022:
Tanya will be based in the US and will be responsible for managing Corero's global sales function including the further development of Corero's go-to-market strategy, as well as the management of key strategic accounts and the Company's indirect channel.
I like the company and the management, but unfortunately, this is similar to other tech companies that are excellent, but not profitable - BIRD springs to mind. I dont think I would buy back at any price, as I dont see a profit here.
Jens has a large enough percentage, can't see it becoming private. Just looking at Juniper it's not actually that acquisitive compared to most large nasdaq tech companies - but plenty of fire power of it wanted to.
Despite the revenue miss some good points from the trading update - ARR, retention rates, $ value rather than number of new customers, total orders etc.
Need to understand cash and see the full annual report.
Hopefully company specific factors can raise the price as well as a re rate of AIMs tech small cap and nasdaq rising.
you have a good point about lack of interest from Jens or Jupiter
there must surely be an sp at which this is a buy??
But perhaps I should wait for sales growth momentum to return
...if it returns lol
I wanted to ask you Jolly, why you would even to buy at 7.5p. What do you see as upside.
Even with the sales level, the cash is decreasing: Cash at 31 December 2022 was $5.6 million (31 December 2021: $11.2 million). If the burn rate was the same then that wont last another 12 months. Plus they have some debt.
Best thing for this would be a buy out, but you might not make much profit at 7.5p IMO.
Juniper and Jens, have so much cash there must be good reason why they dont want it. I'd guess the staff / development costs must be huge for this, in an ever evolving tech environment. I have no intention of bailing them out.
yes, echoes my concerns
I need lower sp to justify risks
My TA if interested
https://twitter.com/DartronTrading/status/1615332380176224259?s=20&t=ShUMCZNrlFXeLqleQtTUsg
Not had a chance to read it yet, though its obvs lower revenue. I sold last week at 9.26, due to price action. I think the 'market' knew what was coming. Have to wonder, with the company being so old, and not breaking through by now, or being bought out by Juniper, or being taken back private by largest share holder, will it ever?
pretty lacklustre
might get 7.5p if I'm lucky
want sub 9p
and may still get opportunity