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Https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Centralnic_Group/broker-views
Great to see Slater Investments buying more and raising their already large stake - they now own over 10% of CNIC, with 28.7m shares:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/90518015
Agreed. FCF gives the value of the cash produced in a period available to equity holders (either returned as dividends) or used for debt repayment which will result in a £ fpr £ increase in equity value.
But don’t forget the two other ‘fundamental’ drivers of CentralNICs share price:
(1) the growth rate of FCF over the period (or EBITDA growth as a proxy) and
(2) the ‘pull to par’ when (hopefully) the share price re-rates to a more reasonable valuation multiple over the medium term
Doing the math for centralNCS:
One year share rice appreciation = FCF yield (14%) + FCF growth over year (range from 10% (lower band based on company’s conservative internal budgets used to set management bonuses) to 60% (if it repeats last years organic growth) - choosing something in the middle, say 25% which represents a significant slowdown vs what they are growing at now, but above the sandbagged budget ) + in the year re-rating (which is put in a range of 0% to 200% but say 0% as it feels like we will be waiting a bit longer for the market to see it’s potential)
So pretty easy to see this thing returning 25-75% (mid point around 40%) over the next twelve months, even without any re-rating of valuation multiples
Sorry Monty but you are entirely focused on the wrong thing here....its FCF which drives value...and CNIC is almost unbeatable in that regard. Their accounting loss is from my standpoint entirely meaningless and driven by different tax jurisdictions/intangibles amort. etc etc. FCF and cash generation is what drives a DCF and the only real measure of value creation. If you want to pick your investments by looking at non-cash measures, go ahead, but it will be a pretty futile way to pick winners.
I hope so and think next results should show a net profit. It’s irritating how hard it is to find relative to other key financial data in their results and how little attention is brought to it in their results. It’s not even on their summary sheet.
I said clearly net loss making not PBT. Eh?
Ah right, you were referring to the post-tax loss. I didn’t scroll down the page before replying. Ok but in terms of cash generation it’s a machine. PAT is significantly dragged down by the amortization on recent acquisitions, as well as the tax charge. Continued growth and a slower pace of acquisitions should lead to a sizeable increase in PAT.
Net loss making? Eh? Profit before tax of $14m+ for the year just gone.
I was really enthusiastic but O noticed the Director sell shares when their options mature every time then buy smaller amounts back. Also noticed they are actually net loss making which they seem to hide very well. Certainly revenue growth is brilliant like THG. I’m less excited than I was now and it does explain why it’s not rising.
Kestrel continue to buy, another 25k taking their stake to 48.1m shares or 23.09%:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/90492766
This looks very poor chartwise now. Must say I'm a little concerned that my largest holding in my portfolio is not going anywhere. Wedge break on chart is only a few pence lower.
If you wonder here is an explanation. Nothing dodgy.
The $16.9m tax charge for FY22 seems high in relation to $14.8m PBT, but a material portion of CNIC's administrative expenses - namely foreign exchange gains/losses, share-based payment expenses and the bulk of amortisation and impairment of intangible assets - are not tax deductible in almost all jurisdictions in which we operate. As such, a more realistic effective tax rate should be derived by dividing the tax charge by EBITDA excluding FX and share-based payment expenses, which is (AEBITDA $86.0m minus Non-core opex $8.2m =) $77.8m. 16.9 / 77.8 = 21.7%, which is a more meaningful ETR, even before we get into breakdowns of PBT per jurisdiction.
Of course we are in a worsening Bear market which is probably why we are not seeing a major SP uplift. “All ships anchor lower when the tide goes out” I think more Director buys and getting back to a bull market with similar growth rates to these in 6 months could see a major uplift in SP.
The numbers speaking for themselves hasnt been too successful either.:) as one director told me once ‘i cant direct the share price , I direct the business. The problem for many specialist aim listed companies is they are not exactly household names. cnic is virtually in a sector of its own in the uk. They havnt had a great deal to shout about in before the last two years. They certainly have now. They have taken their time selecting somewhere around 15 companies to their portfolio in the last few years. It has not been an easy business to asses, particularly how they make money. Their presentations have improved believe it or not, even though it still looks like they are working in pandemic mode like many others. Glad they re not wasting money on fancy offices. They are after all an internet business . I think some one said he was a bit perturbed that Michael looked like he was presenting from his grannies attic! I suppose one worry for the market is how they can keep this rate of growth growing. Ben said they had less than 1% of market share, so the answer appears to be easily given a fair run. If the market doesn't quite understand the business model yet, the management comes across very well that they know exactly what they are doing, and try hard to get that message across. Hopefully the penny is dropping. Unfortunately there is much to be concerned about at the moment. DYOR etc and very good luck to shareholders and the company.
Well the trumpet blowing didn’t work. No need, as said they are doing good, more Director buys and let the numbers talk is the recipe for an SP uplift. Plus a share buyback and share cancellation rather than putting into treasury always more desirable.
Well the trumpet blowing didn’t work. Not need, as said they are doing good, more Director buys and let the numbers talk is the recipe for an SP uplift. Plus a share buy and cancellation rather than putting into treasury.
You are dammed if you do and damned if you don’t. Some people complain about companies who stay silent and demand an RNS as to why the sp is falling. I can assure you there are many exasperated directors wondering why their share price is not matching their performance. Cnic has been a classic ‘how do they make their money?’ stock. Many journalists are too lazy to find out or stick to their ‘comfort zones’ like retail and supermarkets. It is hardly surprising to me at least that Cnic have done the rounds of vox markets, investor meet company, etc to promote themselves to the investment community. I wonder how many people here actually know who Kestrel are and what they do. One thing I am certain of is that they will not take over Cnic. They do have a very good website of their own. Is an Edison report worthy? Does it help in anyway? They have been around a long time. I expect brokers do read them. Sometimes you need to blow your own trumpet. I’m sure there would be even more complaints if they didn’t.
Good companies don’t need these paid reports, looks desperate. Do a share buy back or let the numbers speak for themselves we will find our true value as all stocks do.
Good report, but don’t forget paid for by CNIC, so should be taken with that in mind (not independent). Still some very good info contained within it.
Not very often in these times of unpredictable markets you can be 99% sure you've got your money somewhere safe but this share hardly ever delivers bad news
This guy is getting ready to mount a takeover from the looks of it. You don't buy over 20 percent to sit on your hands.
It's going to heat up over the next year...
A comprehensive new 19 page Edison research note is just out today - it has a 279p price target, i.e almost double the current share price:
Https://www.edisongroup.com/research/clarifying-the-narrative/32062/
Kestrel continue to buy, now almost another 50k shares and they're up to 23.08%:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/90456582
Hopefully the trade of over 5m shares yesterday signals the close of an overhang - onwards and upwards!
some absolutely monster sells been going through today...maybe we are finally getting some clearance? it is crazy to think some fund manager thinks that this thing isn't demonstrating exceptional value....very odd
Zach
Ben used to frequently mention dual listing CNIC on Nasdaq, had no effect on the share price whatsoever.
Meantime our relentless seller(s?) continue(s) to offload.