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Chat room - take notes... this share has a ways downwards to go. I repeat the only
way I see any upward movement is:
1. 2 consecutive quarters of positive earnings reported.
2. Merger / acquisition news.
This stock movement is very similar to the last 2 consolidations, nothing new here just the cycle playing out.
LOTM-13 - We agree on most of the topics, but CNE lean and mean and IF they post up
consecutive quarters of amazing earnings, then yes a merger is likely. I would not be surprised if the BOD purposely planned to:
1. trim the fat
2. focus on maximizing revenues out of Egypt
3. show outstanding profit vs last year
with an express purpose to sell or merge in the future.
Why is it each one of these swaps i seem to loss money and value. Nobody seems to believe in anything which ever board we have that more of the same is better.
Chatroom,
Yes the sp might fall further, most of that volume today is from a single trade, a couple of days ago the volume was as lopsided to the buy side.
There are 4 Insto's who have borrowed stock & are increasing there holdings so they will use whatever means they can to shake stock loose.
Hopefully the buy-back bought that 78k lot earlier, if not they have a lot of munching to do. They are looking to spend another £7.5M before the end of the year. That's over 4M more shares (over 4% of the company) in just 10-11 weeks (so roughly 400,000 shares a week or 80,000 a day, every day to Xmas).
LOTM
Looking at the selling Volume and comparing to the buying Volume the SP looks as though it has a long way to fall?????
Mr.kioto
I have no idea where you got this "current report", but it's totally wrong. The share price is not down 41% in the last 90 days.
As for the fair value estimate of £2.19 that's laughable in its self. The company will save that amount in G&A costs over the next 4 years alone.
I wasn't around at the time of the tender but I'd guess the institutions wanted it that way so they could sell a large chunk of there holdings without it moving the share price, as the company would be leaving an index at the same time.
The stock will go up next year once people can actually see the true numbers & the benefits that are coming shareholders way, until then there will be very little to move the share price other than possibly this webcast/presentation on Egypt at the end of November.
In some ways because they've now cut the fat, they are less likely to be taken over, especially after paying out all the cash as well. Both would be prime reason's for buying/merging before not after the event.
Just need to be patient, good things come to those that wait !
Personally I'm trying to accumulate as many of these as I can in the coming month's because of that. Sadly I misjudged the new trading range & will have to adjust my strategy accordingly, even if I have to take a short term hit to do so.
LOTM
LOTM
CNE current Report:
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop
Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 41%.
The fair value is estimated to be UK£2.19, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only.
Revenue has grown by 35% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making.
**Still waiting for a major dip before buying more. This is my third consolidation with CNE, (I won't even get into the disappointing Tender - by the way, can anyone simplify and explain why the old BOD did a tender vs issue a dividend to shareholders.... still dont understand the logic).
In my opinion the only way this stock goes in an upward trend if :
1. 2 quarters of stable profit / growth is reported
or
2. Merger / Aquisition is announced. (they are a prime candidate after the cutting the fat).
Another consolidation, another drop.
Just bought another 5,000 shares at £1.79891
Buy-back didn't start until nearly 1pm yesterday & I'd say they fell short of there daily target. They need to buy back around 400,000 shares a week to get the buy-back completed just before Xmas.
So they are going to have to up the pace of it soon.
LOTM
We seem to be on a rising trend for now with higher high's & higher low's.
Gone through the 50 day MA & are about to go through the 100 day one as well.
I changed strategy yesterday, had been hoping for a retreat to around the £1.73 - 75 level which didn't happen. So I ended up buying 3 large lots for 23,334 shares in the £1.83's. will still be looking to trade them as we go. Wasn't great would have been far better getting a lot of them for under £1.80 but I've just got to trade what I see.
Still trying to figure out how the share buy-back of around 70,000 shares a day is going to affect everything. Interestingly the buy-back didn't kick in until nearly lunchtime yesterday when you look at the trades they did.
LOTM
Wow what is going on with these institutions!
Palliser has now managed to get the voting rights to 2.35% of the company in addition to the 7.8% they have held steady for month's now.
So 4 Institutions have now bought indirect holdings in Capricorn, who on earth is lending them there stock ?
I guess that's 4 Institutions that see upside potential here.
LOTM
So that's another step of the transformation process complete. while another starts back up (the share buy-back).
Market cap is now under £172M or $212.5M & net cash at 20th October (assuming the cash position hasn't changed since 30th June other than for the special dividend & share buy-back) will be ($176 - $100 - $3.4 [on buy-back to 4th August]) $72.6M - (current buy-back amount - lets say they spend $1.6M by then) so $71M in cash.
There is still another approximately $8.4M to go on the buy-back after that leaving a cash balance of roughly $62.5M when all said & done.
Shares in issue should have fallen to a fraction under 91M when the current buy-back finishes assuming the share price averages £1.90 during it ( around 90.76M if average is £1.80).
At £1.80 the market cap would then be £164M or $205M, or at £1.90 it is £172.9M or $216.1M
So current net cash ($62.5M) will account for 28.9% or 30.5% of CNE's market value.
Note net receivables (receivables - payables) for Egypt at the end of June were $108M ($144M - $36M) as well.
Looking very healthy indeed.
LOTM
Mr Kioto,
Very end of November, possibly the 30th Nov if I recall correctly for the update on Egypt & I'm guessing it will be open to investors & shareholders.
LOTM
On the last call, the management mentioned that there will be a Operations call in November, to review progress to date. Was this open to shareholders? What is the date?
Finally able to trade the stock once more, unfortunately didn't get the chance to bag some of the £1.84-85 on offer 1st thing.
I've put limit orders in place to buy stock in the low £1.7's let's see if it get's filled this afternoon. All these tiny trades going through are bizarre, of no value whatsoever!
LOTM
Correct. harvy for short. at the open of the market all was sorted and ready to go for trades.
this is the third consolidation with cne, and every time, everything is sorted by 8am next day for trading.
sounds like you need a new broker.... but... you do have to chase for dividend payments sometimes....
Mr.kioto
Who are Harvey ? I've never heard of them or do you mean "Hargreaves Lansdown" ?
Do you know from what sort of time on Friday you were able to trade CNE ?
I've now got my correct number of new shares, but still no trade function on them so it very much looks like I won't be able to trade them again in the morning !
So So annoying
LOTM
Yes. Harvey.
Mr.Kioto,
Are you able to trade the new stock already ? if so which broker do you use? as I'm not able to trade yet & I might not be until Monday !
LOTM
Trending downwards as the last 2 consolidation plays. Jump back in at 1.40 to 1.50. see you at the bottom.
Ok I spent the evening re-doing all my old trades & working out my net position ahead of the new shares trading.
Total banked profit so far £5786.88
With 25,000 shares still held at an average cost price of £1.7205.
This will become 16,666 shares at a new average cost price of £1.7408.
The old trading range that has been working from £1.73 to £1.80 recently will no doubt change following the consolidation & the return of the share buy-back program.
So I'll have to find a new trading range / strategy going forward as I try to increase my overall long-term share holding further. First immediate target is to increase the 16,666 to 20,000 by the end of 2023 solely funded from trading profits.
LOTM
My shares shows it closes today at 173.9 ..... ????? does anyone else ?
Never said that.
Try reading it again.
My goodness Goldman Sach's have been busy little beavers, turning all those voting rights into actual share ownership in the past couple of days.
LOTM
AndAnotherThing,
The goal of the consolidation is to ensure that going forward things can be compared on a like for like basis regarding eps, for PE ratio's etc.
The company will have a market cap of £X million 's tonight, in the morning its market cap should be the same £X- £80M (the $100M dividend at £0.56)which you then divide by the number of shares now in issue.
It does not mean the share price should fall further because it was higher the night beforehand.
LOTM
Put another way, the goal was to have the shares after consolidation be at the same price as before consolidation.
If the closing price is £1.80 per share, that would require a dividend of 60.0p
if the closing price is £1.70 per share, that would require a dividend of 56.7p
if the closing price is £1.68 per share, that would require the dividend of 56.0p
At a dividend of 56.0p, the higher the closing price is above £1.68 per share, the greater the immediate loss with consolidation.