Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I have little to no worries about them raising the finance.. it's the pricing of any equity raise(s) that is/are part of that financing that I'm cautious on..
LOL
Beginning to wonder why half you guys are invested here with so many doubts/concerns. Maybe it's because I used to work in Corporate Finance within Natural Resources - but I have little or no worries about the ability of the company to raise the necessary finance.
But I guess you guys gotta get all worked up about something. First it was the EIA, now it's the Finance, next it'll be something else.. I'm holding these to Dividend so perhaps I have a different time horizon.
''However, there are upcoming events (resource expansion, offtake, IML, financing, mine construction) which will make a rerate an almost certainty.''
There's a bunch more info. needs come out, especially around funding to go live, that I'd look to interpret before I'd even come close to agreeing with that statement Paul FG.. but you're as entitled to your opinion as much as I am, obviously.
I did a small dump of shares this morning - 15 to 20% of my holding only - and the rest I'll look to sit on for the medium term, at least.. also I'll look to post less again here, at least until next RNS drops.
Good luck to all fellow holders.
I don't think its to do with the company's PR, or confidence in the company. That the company needs to raise money is not in doubt. Therefore, in the short term people are, and maybe not without justification, expecting a fund raise at some point in the not to distant future?
Yeah, logic would say that's the case but then the EIA was a definite re-rate situation! Confidence is definitely lacking.. I hope PR ramps up in Q1 as they release good news. Maybe it'll really begin to motor after mining becomes a certainty and the resource is confirmed as even better! IMO those two are already done but obv not to the market's taste atm.
God knows I'm as p'd off as the rest of ye wrt SP performance. However, there are upcoming events (resource expansion, offtake, IML, financing, mine construction) which will make a rerate an almost certainty. If you do not believe in any of these or harbour significant doubt as to their eventual crystallisation then like Daltp liquidation is your only honest option.
I remain significantly long - three months more...
It would help if they conducted more interviews (preferably beyond TMS and longer than 10 mins) and got the word out, it might help a lot...
No other broker will do a note nor recommendation unless they are brought on by CMET. If another broker is brought on then be very worried as this is a surefire sign of a placing!!
WH Ireland are the in-house broker so their notes should always be taken with a pinch of salt however nothing in that note is not factual or obvious. The only logical conclusion to the malaise is funding worries thrown in with some market contagion. If it's not either of those then I genuinely have no idea what or why the EIA hasn't spurred this on.
versus peers from MH Ireland pg 8:
"Peers
Capital has several peers operating in mineral sands: typically, in Africa or in Australia
(Table 4). In Sri Lanka, there is one existing operation (Lanka Mineral Sands –
Government-owned) and one active project (Manar Island – Titanium Sands Limited) with
one dormant project, formerly owned by Ilkua (Puttalam). We choose to focus on peers
operating in Africa and Australia (Indonesia) listed in the UK and Australia for our peers.
Capital stands out on many metrics: highest-grade resource, highest HMC and vValuable
Heavy Minerals (VHM) resource grades and high revenue per tonne. Eastern Minerals
Project is a small tonnage (at the moment) project which stands out against its peers and
which we expect to rerate as its key catalysts are achieved.
A recent IPO (dual list) in London of PYX Resources (AIM:PYX) with a market cap of £400m,
and which has small-scale, high-grade zircon production in Indonesia, points to the value
given for new producer entrants into the London mineral sands market (Table 2)."
only a matter of time before market and other brokers start recommending.
I'm very disappointed that this is around 10p as I type.. and not to mind no rise, but a post EIA s/p fall gives me a cold feeling on how the market sees this share.. and there's a complicated implementation project ahead, so I'm more disappointed than surprised, alas....
Generally, in the share price here on a 2 year plus view context, this may well be just an irritation.. but on a short term view - 3 months ish - it' s a very poor market view indeed.. and on a medium term view - 1 to 1,5 years - it's a poor view .. and there will be equity raiseS one way or other here in 2022 , I expect ...and beyond 2022 too perhaps .. doing those from a 10 ish p starting place versus a 15p plus starting place makes a punchy enough difference to overall dilution..
( Specifically, I went from approx 4k to 5k gbp bet here on EIA news.. and while I'm ok parking and forgetting about that for a good while.. it's very unlikely I'll be putting more money in here in the short term , and, with the benefit of hindsight, I'd rather have plenty less than a 5k gbp bet on here right now.. indeed I'm tempted to dump 2k's worth at 10p ish and add back if and when I see fit .. but I may not bother...)
Yeah, I would sell up to get in lower but the spread is so massive it's not worth the risk.
Back to the levels I averaged down in the summer though which is painful. I think people have seen that a few of the costs are unaccounted for (the port for example) and they want some clarity which the podcast didn't bring. It'll be Jan/Feb before we know it and as painful as it is, i can't see this dropping past 9p, it has to hold. Post EIA and this level is absurd though and not easy to swallow.
Poor old Daltp - he never seemed to want to buy in in the first place and complained bitterly all the time he was long, made predictions of 40p on twitter post EIA, when that didn't materialise he started to liquidate his position (probably within 30mins of the announcement) and now he's back on twitter predicting sub 10p (not exactly a million miles away).
Daltp you must do what you must for your own trading position, and thanks for the liquidity, and I understand if you're a short term trader that you would execute the way you have and why you're probably a little bitter.
However, timelines are not long (depending on your definition of long):
> Expect drilling results sometime Q1 - samples on their way to Australia so not SL dependent)
> Expect news re offtake -I mean if these guys were on the phone to Frayne the day of the EIA that demonstrates a certain level of eagerness (to me) to type up this resource ;
> IML - okay this is in the hands of the SL authorities but given it is the MINING authority rather than touchy feely greens (apology to all touchy feely greens) I would expect this process to proceed in far more efficient manner than the EIA.
These are three potentially value releasing events occurring before end of Q1 (is that a long timeline????) .
I thought you'd sold up? But nice to see you sticking around to continue to spread your misery.
The more I read , the more I love this project. The MMs can f**k about with the SP and spread as much as they like in the meantime as far as I'm concerned.
Financing concerns are an issue. Also people putting there money into covid19 stocks for a quick buck. The timeline for progress is long and given EIA was delayed for months, then we can expect nothing material until spring next year. AIMHO.
According to WH Ireland report:
"Wet plant (Stage 1)
The wet plant will be at the mine site. Where the mineral sands mined will
be separated into silica sand (returned to the mining area and backfilled)
and a Heavy Mineral Concentrate (HMC) by the use of spirals, which utilise
the density difference of the grains to perform the separation. We expect
the commissioning to be modular with up to 3x 550kt/yr plants sited
logistically to best aid production. The HMC will be trucked to the dry plant
at Oluvil by the contractor. Initial Capex for the wet plant is expected at
~$10m.
Dry plant (Stage 2)
The dry plant will separate the various heavy minerals contained in the
HMC into separate ilmenite, rutile, garnet and zircon (later silimanite)
using a variety of well-used techniques: magnetics, electrostatic, particle
size differences and additional spirals. Products will then be shipped to
global markets. Capex for the dry plant is expected at $25m (including
infrastructure)."
Therefore, looks like in the short term the CAPEX requirement is reduced to $10m from $35m - I would imagine this is easily raised in either an Offtake agreement or in debt by using one as collateral.
I think there may be a concern re financing/ongoing op costs. It would be helpful if they clarified the picture on that to ease concerns.
Pretty clear that CMET - M I C H A E L F R A Y N E & J A M E S L E A H Y - need to to do a better MUCH BETTER job about getting the CMET story out in the market, and it's a GOOD STORY, to attract new interest and buyers.